ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4 (user search)
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  ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ABC News/Washington Post National Poll: Clinton+4  (Read 7112 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: October 15, 2016, 11:41:20 PM »

Meh, this isn't catastrophic, but it's still annoying to see Drudge be right about something.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 01:46:14 AM »

Of course 538 would adjust this down to Clinton +3 even though almost every other ABC poll in the past has been adjusted up. What a joke.
Was just about to post this. Interesting decision.

It's not a "decision". These adjustments are made based on a statistical model (I'd guess something like an OLS regression, though it might be something more complicated) that takes into account factors such as trend and house effect. I don't know how they got to this adjustment (I'm surprised by it myself), but this is not a judgment call by Silver or anyone.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,268
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 12:42:42 PM »

So we have two polls conducted in the same time span that show Clinton +4 and +11. Averaging them gets us to +7.5, which is about where she stood right before the debate. So this would suggest that the race has remained stable.
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