Who is the most vulnerable Governor in 2022?

[Schiff for Senate]

Kelly is much more skilled at duping gullible Republicans into believing she’s a moderate (see: her recent signing/touting of the vaccination exemption law) than Evers or Whitmer but her state is also >10 points more Republican than Evers's or Whitmer's (while not trending D nearly fast enough to offset this), and she’ll need to outrun the D Senate nominee by at least 25 points. I haven’t seen much reliable (read: not Morning Consult) polling out of KS, but I can buy that Kelly is relatively popular/slightly above 50% right now. There’s a case to be made that having virtually no crossover appeal (Evers, Whitmer) or actively antagonizing the other side (Whitmer) in this environment (in which generic R almost certainly has a healthy lead in WI/MI) is arguably worse than running for reelection as a Democratic governor in KS, especially given the success Republican governors had even in deep blue states in 2018. However, I still think Republicans would have to run an extremely and unusually flawed campaign to lose to Kelly, and there’s still a chance her numbers just outright collapse like Bollier's (or that polls just dramatically overestimate her standing*). Republicans will need to put more effort into defining Kelly, but it’s definitely doable.

*In all fairness, Kelly seems to be closer to 50% than Bollier was, but you get the point.

I have WI and KS as Lean R, MI as Tilt R (but very close to moving this to Lean R). And FTR, I don’t think Brian Kemp is far behind them in terms of vulnerability — his combined odds of winning the primary and GE are, at the very least, below 50/50.

When I read this I thought it's a massive exaggeration, but then I researched on Wikipedia and it turns out Moran is an electoral monster for some reason; he won by 30 points in 2016 and got 70% (so basically 40 points) in 2010. Why do you think this is? (Considering Roger Marshall won by like 10 [that was my estimation; per Wikipedia the margin was more like 12] in 2020 and Pat Roberts won by less than 11 points...in a red year...against an independent.)

[TodayJunior]

Interesting that Brian Kemp isn’t on this list. Maybe you just forgot
I’m not saying he’s the most vulnerable, but he clearly is whether it’s in the primary, or the general, now that Stacey Abrams is in.

Georgia will be the most interesting state to watch next year IMHO bc so many conflicting theories have been raised about its political future.

[😥]

Where is Brian Kemp? Laura Kelly of the listed ones

[Drew]

Voted Evers but then I forgot about Kelly.  So I guess Kelly, then Evers, then Whitmer.

[MillennialModerate]

Evers. Even more than Kelly

[Sir Mohamed]

Kelly, followed by Evers.

Kate Brown is term limited and shouldn't be in this poll.

[Meatball Ron]

I'd peg Kelly's chances of winning reelection at ~20%, Evers' at ~40%, and Whitmer's / Sisolak's at ~50%. Meanwhile I give Dems a ~55% chance at holding PA, a ~55% chance at flipping GA, and a ~35% chance at flipping AZ.

This assumes a national environment for Dems in 2022 that is tough (where we're losing the House and likely, but not definitely, losing the Senate) but better than today's (i.e., one where Dems aren't losing in places as blue as VA and almost losing in places as blue as NJ). Obviously if the midterms were held today, Dems would lose 6 or 7 of the 7 races I mentioned. But I'd expect improvement because of dead cat bounce, starting to see the (very early) impacts of BBB/BIF, potential Dem energization around Roe and SCOTUS, and some improvement around the supply chain / inflation / gas price issues (all of which are already starting to improve).

[lfromnj]

My list

Kelly(I don't know enough but I assume so)
Evers
Whitmer
Sisolak
Stacey Abrams
MLG(NM)

[Gracile]

Kelly may put up a respectable loss in the end, but I doubt she will be able to overcome the double-digit lean of the state in this kind of environment - so she is the most vulnerable by far.

Kemp is really the only incumbent Republican governor who is truly vulnerable, even in a modestly good environment for the GOP.

[lfromnj]

Also Cooper is pretty vulnerable to the GOP gaining super majorities in the legislature.

[Mr.Phips]

Also Cooper is pretty vulnerable to the GOP gaining super majorities in the legislature.

Republicans only need a couple of seats in each House (two in senate and three in the House), which they are very likely to get.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also Cooper is pretty vulnerable to the GOP gaining super majorities in the legislature.

You mean they could impeach him?

[lfromnj]

Also Cooper is pretty vulnerable to the GOP gaining super majorities in the legislature.

You mean they could impeach him?

Nah in NC super majorities are 60%. Impeachment is still 2/3  for the state senate which is impossible to get for the GOP without a really funky gerrymander in Greensboro which the GOP didn't do. Just veto override for cooper.