I'm not saying the Republicans are in a position of strength here, far from it. Democrats certainly have some opportunities they could take advantage of in PA, FL, OH, NC. KY, NH, and MO. However, if they don't get their own crap sorted out soon they could be sorely disappointed come November 2010.
I agree. I think to a certain extent that the AIG bonuses debacle has hurt the Democrats, but to put this in perspective, 2010 is still over a year away, and I don't think most Americans will still be angry about it. I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm "outraged" by it as well, just saying that a year is a long time and a lot can happen in that time.
I concur with the list of most of the seats listed by Padfoot that are looking very good for Democrats right now. I only disagree with Florida. I am 95% sure that Charlie Crist is going to jump in and run in which case Democrats can kiss this seat goodbye. As far as the other seats go, Pat Toomey is certainly going to bloody up poor Arlen Specter who's already despised by the GOP for his stimulus vote in the primary in Pennsylvania for which will definitely benefit the Democratic candidate, Lt. Gov Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are both fine candidates to take the seat held by George Voinovich in Ohio, Richard Burr is definitely vulnerable in the now swing state of North Carolina (remember Liddy Dole?) and I think Attorney General Roy Cooper could definitely give Burr a run for his money, Paul Hodes seems to be the consensus candidate in New Hampshire and should easily win seeing as how the state is becoming bluer, Jim Bunning is senile and already has one foot in his political grave and was almost defeated by now Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo in 2004 in a state that simultaneously voted for George W. Bush by 20 points and almost tossed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2008, and Robin Carnahan whose last name is practically an institution in my state of Missouri has pretty much already won Kit Bond's seat and she will crush either Roy Blunt or Sarah Steelman whoever the victim may be.
At the same time, I think Republicans may have some good pickup opportunities as well. If I had to give them any pickup right now, I'd give them Connecticut but I still think Dodd will pull it out in a squeaker. If I were a Republican, I would turn my attention to Arkansas - a state that swung wildly Republican in a Democratic year. I realize this may simply be because of the Clinton factor, but Joe Biden's already gone to Arkansas to campaign for Blanche Lincoln. Last I saw, her approvals weren't that great either. I think they can only get this seat, however, if Mike Huckabee enters the race but he's busy shooting moose and the GOP bench is surprisingly relatively thin in the Natural State. I'd also put Illinois in the tossup category right now with the whole Roland Burris fiasco but either way you know Democrats will bring out the big "O" guns if they think this seat is in trouble. Colorado might be a seat to watch, as Michael Bennet is an untested candidate, but the demographics are in the Democrats' favor in Colorado. As for Kirsten Gillibrand, I think she'll hold onto this seat just fine. She may support gun rights but she is pretty liberal on all the other wedge issues (pro-choice, pro-gay marriage) which I'm sure will appease the people of New York.
Then again, just my opinions
at least for now.
