NC-PPP: Romney ahead, but Santorum winning if Gingrich drops out

[Tender Branson]

If the Republican candidates for President were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

Mitt Romney.................................................... 31%
Rick Santorum................................................ 27%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 24%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 8%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 10%

If the Republican candidates for President were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?

Rick Santorum................................................ 42%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 38%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 10%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_031412.pdf

[tmthforu94]

There's this myth going around that Santorum will consume almost all of Gingrich's support if he drops out. That is not the case. Santorum would benefit from Gingrich dropping out, but it really won't change things as drastically as some suggest.

[Bull Moose Base]

And, Romney's vote share goes up with a Gingrich exit.  Whether Gingrich is a spoiler or is helping block Romney, depends on how a state's system for awarding delegates. Though in terms of headlines and momentum, he hurts Santroum.

[Erc]

And, Romney's vote share goes up with a Gingrich exit.  Whether Gingrich is a spoiler or is helping block Romney, depends on how a state's system for awarding delegates. Though in terms of headlines and momentum, he hurts Santroum.

In North Carolina, certainly, Romney does better vs. ABR with Gingrich out of the race, delegate-wise.  Though a Romney win in NC (with fewer delegates) may give him more "momentum," if that means anything in this race anymore.

[Likely Voter]

while people who count all of Newt's vote as Santorum's are deluded, it is true that Rick would net more if Newt drops out.

Rick would probably have won MI, AK and OH if Gingrich weren't in. NC could be another example.

[Keystone Phil]

Taken before yesterday, of course. Throw it out. Santorum easily ahead.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720120311108

[Torie]

And, Romney's vote share goes up with a Gingrich exit.  Whether Gingrich is a spoiler or is helping block Romney, depends on how a state's system for awarding delegates. Though in terms of headlines and momentum, he hurts Santroum.

Indeed. In states where either each CD's delegates, and/or the at large delegates are winner take all, having Newt around helps.  Where it is all proportional per CD and at large (although if the CD's are a 2-1-0 deal, Mittens might get 2 or 0 rather than 1 by coming in first or third in a 3 person race, where he would have come second in a two person race, he mostly hurts the Mittens cause of getting a majority, unless an otherwise proportional state has a 50% threshold (either for at large delegates or per CD or both), which if met, zero's out the other guy. So for 50% threshold states in most of such states, Mittens would probably want Newt around as an insurance policy that he won't get zeroed out in an otherwise proportional state if Rick hits the 50% threshold. How many 50% states are left, I am not sure. Fun stuff!

[Eraserhead]

If Romney's finally going to win a southern state (besides rigged VA and not-really-southern FL), it would be this one. Gingirch will never get anywhere near 24% now though.

[Lincoln Republican]

Newt, hang in there, America needs you and your brilliance.