2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Senator Incitatus]

Extremely relevant to the "Dobbs will change everything narrative": https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3543728-55-percent-oppose-supreme-court-roe-decision-poll/

• Dobbs opposed by a divided 55 to 45 percent majority
• but most would not have continued Roe/Casey's 23-week viability standard and would favor reducing it to 15 weeks, as in much of Europe
• and only 10 percent support the most liberal abortion policies permitting termination through the third trimester
• widest public support would have been for Justice Roberts’ position to revisit viability standard
• voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

The truth is that Roe was never popular once people knew what it really said. The early polling was largely from the false belief, still persistent in some of the more ignorant circles, that the Court outlawed abortion. Thus the contradiction in high support for what Dobbs actually does versus the decision as a symbol.

If anything, the devastatingly low support for extreme NJ and CO-style abortion deregulation affirms my hunch Democrats might unexpectedly face some blowback in those states' legislatures.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, that sucks. The one good thing that could have come out of overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't seem to be materializing.

Do you see the Change pols showing D's in front Morning  Consult have D's ahead on GCB it's been within MOE

[Brittain33]

Extremely relevant to the "Dobbs will change everything narrative": https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3543728-55-percent-oppose-supreme-court-roe-decision-poll/

• Dobbs opposed by a divided 55 to 45 percent majority
• but most would not have continued Roe/Casey's 23-week viability standard and would favor reducing it to 15 weeks, as in much of Europe
• and only 10 percent support the most liberal abortion policies permitting termination through the third trimester
• widest public support would have been for Justice Roberts’ position to revisit viability standard
• voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

The truth is that Roe was never popular once people knew what it really said. The early polling was largely from the false belief, still persistent in some of the more ignorant circles, that the Court outlawed abortion. Thus the contradiction in high support for what Dobbs actually does versus the decision as a symbol.

If anything, the devastatingly low support for extreme NJ and CO-style abortion deregulation affirms my hunch Democrats might unexpectedly face some blowback in those states' legislatures.

The problem is that people aren’t affected by the Dobbs decision, they are affected by the 100% bans or almost-complete bans passed by Republican legislatures that are enabled by Dobbs, and that terrifies people. What Dobbs “actually does” is enable extreme legislation.

15 weeks may be more popular than 23 weeks, but Republicans are offering 6 weeks or 0 weeks and making the case that an ectopic pregnancy means a woman should die because she should have kept her legs closed. That’s not popular.

[wbrocks67]

voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

sure, in theory. but this is not reality, when state legislatures are going extreme and banning it outright or banning it without any exceptions for rape, incest, etc.

leaving it up to the states, if the states were actually sensible about it, is a hypothetical good idea. but it's not what it's actually happening when you leave it up to them.

[UncleSam]

voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

sure, in theory. but this is not reality, when state legislatures are going extreme and banning it outright or banning it without any exceptions for rape, incest, etc.

leaving it up to the states, if the states were actually sensible about it, is a hypothetical good idea. but it's not what it's actually happening when you leave it up to them.

Problem is that what you consider ‘sensible’ doesn’t align with a big chunk of the countrys’ position on this issue.

I think the biggest takeaway from this poll is that people don’t want the court to just go back and forth on legislating this. People want Congress to come to an agreement on guidelines for when abortion must and must not be legal.

If Dems would get their sh**t together and support the Collins-Murkowski legislation that’s already been proposed publicly, they could really turn the screws on Rs and make some serious progress on this issue. It’s possible that they could even convince one or both of them to support temporarily removing the filibuster on issues of civil rights, and use that as a tool to force McConnell to the table.

Instead Dems won’t accept anything other than the extreme legislation proposed by Klobuchar that very little of the country agrees with. The vast majority of Americans do not want third trimester abortion to be legal outside of very rare exception cases, and most want us to move to the European standard. Dems could force this to become the main topic of discussion for months on end if they pursue a legitimately popular platform on this topic all summer long, and use that as a cudgel against Rs in November to boot. Plus, if you win and force concessions from McConnell, then R base voters will be angry at their candidates and Biden’s approvals should rise.

It’s such an obvious move that it’s honestly pathetic that Dems can’t just get their sh**t together and accept that third trimester abortion is just not popular. People basically perceive it as murdering babies, largely because that’s basically what it is. It’s also a minuscule portion of actual abortions - from a practical perspective, ensuring that abortion is legal through 15 weeks and legal always during exceptional cases will cover 98-99% of abortions currently performed. The last 1-2% of abortions I don’t even personally agree with being legal, and even if I did it’s not a political hill worth dying on.

[wbrocks67]

voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

sure, in theory. but this is not reality, when state legislatures are going extreme and banning it outright or banning it without any exceptions for rape, incest, etc.

leaving it up to the states, if the states were actually sensible about it, is a hypothetical good idea. but it's not what it's actually happening when you leave it up to them.

Problem is that what you consider ‘sensible’ doesn’t align with a big chunk of the countrys’ position on this issue.

I think the biggest takeaway from this poll is that people don’t want the court to just go back and forth on legislating this. People want Congress to come to an agreement on guidelines for when abortion must and must not be legal.

If Dems would get their sh**t together and support the Collins-Murkowski legislation that’s already been proposed publicly, they could really turn the screws on Rs and make some serious progress on this issue. It’s possible that they could even convince one or both of them to support temporarily removing the filibuster on issues of civil rights, and use that as a tool to force McConnell to the table.

Instead Dems won’t accept anything other than the extreme legislation proposed by Klobuchar that very little of the country agrees with. The vast majority of Americans do not want third trimester abortion to be legal outside of very rare exception cases, and most want us to move to the European standard. Dems could force this to become the main topic of discussion for months on end if they pursue a legitimately popular platform on this topic all summer long, and use that as a cudgel against Rs in November to boot. Plus, if you win and force concessions from McConnell, then R base voters will be angry at their candidates and Biden’s approvals should rise.

It’s such an obvious move that it’s honestly pathetic that Dems can’t just get their sh**t together and accept that third trimester abortion is just not popular. People basically perceive it as murdering babies, largely because that’s basically what it is. It’s also a minuscule portion of actual abortions - from a practical perspective, ensuring that abortion is legal through 15 weeks and legal always during exceptional cases will cover 98-99% of abortions currently performed. The last 1-2% of abortions I don’t even personally agree with being legal, and even if I did it’s not a political hill worth dying on.

You're trying very hard to act as if Rs somehow have a leg up on this discussion when they do not. Voters are generally with Democrats on this issue. Most voters were fine with Roe v Wade being the law of the land.

If you honestly believe Murkowski or Collins would ever help blow up the filibuster with Ds then I don't know what to say honestly.

[UncleSam]

voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

sure, in theory. but this is not reality, when state legislatures are going extreme and banning it outright or banning it without any exceptions for rape, incest, etc.

leaving it up to the states, if the states were actually sensible about it, is a hypothetical good idea. but it's not what it's actually happening when you leave it up to them.

Problem is that what you consider ‘sensible’ doesn’t align with a big chunk of the countrys’ position on this issue.

I think the biggest takeaway from this poll is that people don’t want the court to just go back and forth on legislating this. People want Congress to come to an agreement on guidelines for when abortion must and must not be legal.

If Dems would get their sh**t together and support the Collins-Murkowski legislation that’s already been proposed publicly, they could really turn the screws on Rs and make some serious progress on this issue. It’s possible that they could even convince one or both of them to support temporarily removing the filibuster on issues of civil rights, and use that as a tool to force McConnell to the table.

Instead Dems won’t accept anything other than the extreme legislation proposed by Klobuchar that very little of the country agrees with. The vast majority of Americans do not want third trimester abortion to be legal outside of very rare exception cases, and most want us to move to the European standard. Dems could force this to become the main topic of discussion for months on end if they pursue a legitimately popular platform on this topic all summer long, and use that as a cudgel against Rs in November to boot. Plus, if you win and force concessions from McConnell, then R base voters will be angry at their candidates and Biden’s approvals should rise.

It’s such an obvious move that it’s honestly pathetic that Dems can’t just get their sh**t together and accept that third trimester abortion is just not popular. People basically perceive it as murdering babies, largely because that’s basically what it is. It’s also a minuscule portion of actual abortions - from a practical perspective, ensuring that abortion is legal through 15 weeks and legal always during exceptional cases will cover 98-99% of abortions currently performed. The last 1-2% of abortions I don’t even personally agree with being legal, and even if I did it’s not a political hill worth dying on.

You're trying very hard to act as if Rs somehow have a leg up on this discussion when they do not. Voters are generally with Democrats on this issue. Most voters were fine with Roe v Wade being the law of the land.

If you honestly believe Murkowski or Collins would ever help blow up the filibuster with Ds then I don't know what to say honestly.

You’re willfully ignoring your own poll that you posted in this very quote block. Americans clearly do not support the Klobuchar law in comparison to the Collins-Murkowski law. Americans also clearly do not support Rs position, and id argue that Dems are closer to the cente Ron this issue than Rs are.

So I guess I’m confused how you interpreted anything I said as Rs having the leg up. What I said was that as long as both sides are too extreme for the average voter, it is hard to make much progress in congress. If Dems were to shift to the center even just a bit on abortion, it seems much more likely they could enact real and lasting change. Additionally, they’d be more in line with the views of the vast majority of the country - the very poll you cited shows that only roughly 10-15% of people support the Dem position of ‘abortion on demand’ (a literal political flyer with those words has been passed around for several weeks in the Seattle area, so I am well aware of what the Dem position is).

If your party is closer to the center than your opponents are AND you need to act quickly before a bunch of states start taking away crucial civil rights AND you need a political win…seems like a no-brained to abandon partisan efforts at codifying abortion legislation and to instead reach out to whatever pro-choice Rs you can find and play as nice as possible with them.

As to your last point…if Collins writes her own bill, if that bill is broadly popular, if that bill would literally save womens’ lives who she had a hand in harming, and if you actually sincerely try to appeal to her, I do think that Susan Collins would threaten Mitch McConnell behind closed doors to either stop blocking her legislation or she will blow up the filibuster specifically for civil rights legislation. Obviously neither she nor Murkowski would ever do anything to help Dems pass BBB or something like that, but if it is their own bill that Dems we’re just lending support too and which Dems then whispered in their ear ‘you know if you even threatened to go nuclear over this I’ll bet the other Rs would listen…’ then I think Dems could score a real win here.

Instead Dems are focused on acting holier-than-thou and appealing to their base, when they are in a perfect position to help millions of women nationwide right now. The fact that it’s a smart political play that could help them in the upcoming elections for a multitude of reasons is just a cherry on top.

But by all means, if Dems just want to keep trying to shove a partisan bill down peoples’ throats then they won’t look any better than Rs on this, and will probably just get clobbered in November regardless of Dobbs. Which will just embolden Rs to try to crack down even more on abortion rights. It’s basically what I’ve come to expect from Democrats at this point: meaningless purity tests and platitudes uttered to appeal to insane activists who largely hate and despise this country rather than actually following through on their promises and helping working class Americans.

[2016]

The Democrats are truly screwed this November. A new Monmouth National Poll reveals Top Issue is Inflation at 33 % followed by Gas Prices 15 % and the Economy at 9 %. Abortion only comes in 5th at 5 %.

IT IS OVER FOR DEMOCRATS! CHEKMATE!

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth tied at 47-47, was R+4 in May

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/


Harvard-Harris also tied at 50-50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-june/

[2016]

Monmouth tied at 47-47, was R+4 in May

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/


Harvard-Harris also tied at 50-50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-june/

Those are not good Polls for Democrats see above. Issues matter here!

According to Monmouth if you combine Inflation (33 %), Gas Prices (15 %) and Economy (9 %) you get 57 % which favours Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

and now Rasmussen at 50-50

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1544349237571371015

[Brittain33]

Monmouth tied at 47-47, was R+4 in May

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/


Harvard-Harris also tied at 50-50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-june/

Those are not good Polls for Democrats see above. Issues matter here!

According to Monmouth if you combine Inflation (33 %), Gas Prices (15 %) and Economy (9 %) you get 57 % which favours Republicans.

It says “what is the biggest concern facing your family right now.” Framing matters. Not hard to imagine that far more than 5% of voters are freaking out about abortion bans even though it’s not an issue facing their family right now.

[Sir Mohamed]

and now Rasmussen at 50-50

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1544349237571371015

LOL, GOP in disarray?

That said, it's still too early for hard predictions, overall the GOP remains the heavy favorite for the House majority. Senate is pretty much a 50-50 chance as we speak.

[wbrocks67]

NVM looks like 538 entered the Harvard poll as Rasmussen, so now its fixed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news DC STATEHOOD and Filibuster proof Sen🤩🤩🤩🤩

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a note the reason why Rs net gained seats in 2020, it was before the insurrection they would lost alot more in 2020 post insurrection, that's why Rs lost GA insurrection

I am not naming names of D's win alot of users that make R nut maps are gonna be so wrong that's why I make the map the way I do in case D's win, D's outnumber Rs anyways we represent Chicago, SF, LA and NY

[Unelectable Bystander]

Just a reminder that Harvard is registered voters. Even 538 acknowledges that midterms are simultaneously both more republican and more “anti-incumbent” than the usual electorate (meaning 2022 will provide R’s with two boosts) so this points to R +3 or 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol the state by state polls have D's well out in front in every swing state

[Brittain33]

Even 538 acknowledges that midterms are simultaneously both more republican and more “anti-incumbent” than the usual electorate

Really? I don’t think you can argue that 2018 was more Republican than either 2016 or 2020. Can you make that case?

Historically it has been the case that Republicans voted more reliably, but with large numbers of highly-educated Republicans moving away from the party and being replaced with lower-education voters, we could see that trend change.

Republicans benefit from the anti-incumbent factor so far but voters may have started to realize that on some issues, the incumbent President is Clarence Thomas rather than Joe Biden.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Even 538 acknowledges that midterms are simultaneously both more republican and more “anti-incumbent” than the usual electorate

Really? I don’t think you can argue that 2018 was more Republican than either 2016 or 2020. Can you make that case?

Historically it has been the case that Republicans voted more reliably, but with large numbers of highly-educated Republicans moving away from the party and being replaced with lower-education voters, we could see that trend change.

Republicans benefit from the anti-incumbent factor so far but voters may have started to realize that on some issues, the incumbent President is Clarence Thomas rather than Joe Biden.

That is 538’s interpretation. They said something along the lines of “2018 was a neutral electorate because the anti-incumbent boost canceled out the pro-republican boost”. Now I also don’t buy that Trump would have lost by 8 points in a 2018 presidential election, so I would tend to agree with you that democrats definitely outvoted republicans in 2018. The midterm propensity gap certainly has closed due to R’s improving with uneducated voters and D’s improving with educated voters. I would still say that it slightly favors R’s though, at least until there’s evidence that whites aren’t outvoting minorities in midterms and that older people aren’t outvoting younger people.

This, combined with incumbency effect, makes me quite certain that the likely voters are more right leaning than registered voters in this cycle. Polls have shown the same thing I believe: the likely voter generic ballot is to the right of the registered voter generic ballot at this point

[Brittain33]

Well, we will find out. I am curious about the Dobbs effect. History argues for pessimism among Dems.

[philly09]

Gotta get the youth vote out.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544361329326231553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gotta get the youth vote out.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544361329326231553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

It's a pre election poll not results, it's not real yet it's theory

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.