Democrats: If we can't win the Senate after a Biden slide, what's the strategy going forwards?

[Roll Roons]

Work to win it in 2022. It's a favorable field for Dems. It's favorable enough a 2018 scenario could occur where Dems lose a ton of House seats, but still gain a few (or at least have no losses) in the Senate.

The only seats they have to defend that might be competitive are Arizona (assuming Kelly wins), Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Whoever the Georgia 2020 special winner is will be up again as well.  Meanwhile Republicans have to defend North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Kansas (these last few are likely not competitive but...a man can dream) Missouri, South Carolina, and Louisiana. Plus, Alaska will be a wildcard due to Murkowski's high Republican unfavorability despite a history of winning even when she's lost the Republican nomination.

We don't have the same low hanging fruit in 2022 that Rs had in 2018 though. Those potential pick up opportunities are in at best states with an even PVI.

Yeah, the equivalent of Democratic incumbents in North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Indiana and Missouri would be if there were Republican incumbents in California, New York, Maryland, Illinois and Oregon.

In terms of R-held seats, I think only Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina would be realistic targets. And in a Biden midterm, Democrats would honestly be lucky to win even one.

Wisconsin: If Johnson retires and Mike Gallagher runs, Democrats can kiss that seat goodbye. That man is an insanely strong candidate.
Florida: If Florida Democrats couldn't even reelect their own incumbent in a Trump midterm, how on earth will they beat Marco?
Ohio: Aside from Obama and Sherrod Brown, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Ohio this decade, and I don't think Ohio Democrats have a candidate of Brown's caliber waiting in the wings. Plus Portman is a machine when it comes to campaigning and fundraising.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley is Jesus in this state.

Every other state is just too red for Democrats to win in a Biden midterm.

[Roll Roons]

Work to win it in 2022. It's a favorable field for Dems. It's favorable enough a 2018 scenario could occur where Dems lose a ton of House seats, but still gain a few (or at least have no losses) in the Senate.

The only seats they have to defend that might be competitive are Arizona (assuming Kelly wins), Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Whoever the Georgia 2020 special winner is will be up again as well.  Meanwhile Republicans have to defend North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Kansas (these last few are likely not competitive but...a man can dream) Missouri, South Carolina, and Louisiana. Plus, Alaska will be a wildcard due to Murkowski's high Republican unfavorability despite a history of winning even when she's lost the Republican nomination.

We don't have the same low hanging fruit in 2022 that Rs had in 2018 though. Those potential pick up opportunities are in at best states with an even PVI.

Yeah, the equivalent of Democratic incumbents in North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Indiana and Missouri would be if there were Republican incumbents in California, New York, Maryland, Illinois and Oregon.

In terms of R-held seats, I think only Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina would be realistic targets. And in a Biden midterm, Democrats would honestly be lucky to win even one.

Wisconsin: If Johnson retires and Mike Gallagher runs, Democrats can kiss that seat goodbye. That man is an insanely strong candidate.
Florida: If Florida Democrats couldn't even reelect their own incumbent in a Trump midterm, how on earth will they beat Marco?
Ohio: Aside from Obama and Sherrod Brown, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Ohio this decade, and I don't think Ohio Democrats have a candidate of Brown's caliber waiting in the wings. Plus Portman is a machine when it comes to campaigning and fundraising.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley is Jesus in this state.

Every other state is just too red for Democrats to win in a Biden midterm.

IA and OH are blue enough for Dems to win in a midterm, but GA and NC aren't? Especially since GA is quite inelastic anyways, also what about PA. Dem chances in those three states are far better than OH (lol) and IA (LOL).

Yes. I said that in a Biden midterm, Democrats would have a shot at PA, GA and NC, with PA starting as a Tossup and the latter two as Lean R. I also said OH and IA would be out of reach.

[Roll Roons]

The 2016 election featured multiple red and swing state seats that were winnable such as Missouri, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The Democrats chose to deprioritize those states in favor of wasting money in New York (Schumer was head of DSCC) and Florida (did they really think they were going to take down Rubio?). Ron Johnson especially should have been beatable since he wasn’t a particularly strong politician and Trump barely won his state. If Dems won those three seats they’d have a majority right now.

Missouri wasn't winnable. Kander did really well but the Trump coattails were just too strong. But the right candidates could have won in Pennsylvania (DePasquale or Patrick Murphy if he had gotten elected AG in 2012), Wisconsin (Kind) and North Carolina (Shuler or Hagan).