Will all 3 South Florida counties swing more than 10% to the right?

[iceman]

Will Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach all swing more than 10% to the right this year?

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a collective or individually?

One side fun fact: it's theoretically possible for each of the 3 counties to have >10% swings but as a collective less than a 10% swing if Broward had disproportionately strong turnout. The reverse is also true and honestly has a non-zero chance of happening.

[iceman]

As a collective or individually?

individually

[CookieDamage]

I don't think so

[Mr. Smith]

Forgot Monroe, Lee, and Collier which I doubt will.

[redjohn]

Yes, I absolutely think so. Biden is polling more than double-digits worse than he was at this point in 2020, and those swings are going to be especially pronounced in south FL.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

For that to happen, Trump basically needs to win Florida by at least 10% (technically less is possible if other parts of the state swing left, and in particular I do believe the urban counties near Miami will swing sharper right than rest of state).

My bet currently is

Miami-Dade: yes
Palm Beach: maybe, toss-up, i'll lean yes
Broward: no

So to the answer as a whole, no.

For Broward to swing 10% to the right, i think we basically need a low double digits to 15% victory for Trump already.

This basically also assumes that I think Miami Dade goes Republican, which I do think will happen and Palm Beach tilt/lean D/Biden.

The problem with Palm Beach is that for it to flip, you need quite a bit of people that go from D to R, because a drop in turnout isn't enough (and would also affect republicans). You need swingers which i guess there will be but not enough.

[MillennialModerate]

Does anyone think the shift in the Big 3 is a temporary Trump/DeSantis era thing. Or is it a long term thing. I mean it would totally buck the normal trends of high population - dense areas being Dem friendly (I mean it’s Dem friendly compared to the rest of Florida but this area - along with Hillsborough and Orange) acted as counterbalance to the rest of the state and now they’re becoming swing counties (and not the fun kind of swing).

My in laws stay on the Palm Beach / Broward border for 3 months every winter and I usually go down and spend a week with them and a week in Downtown Miami - and it makes no sense to me how (especially Miami) is shifting right. Nothing about Miami says Republican

[cg41386]

Does anyone think the shift in the Big 3 is a temporary Trump/DeSantis era thing. Or is it a long term thing. I mean it would totally buck the normal trends of high population - dense areas being Dem friendly (I mean it’s Dem friendly compared to the rest of Florida but this area - along with Hillsborough and Orange) acted as counterbalance to the rest of the state and now they’re becoming swing counties (and not the fun kind of swing).

My in laws stay on the Palm Beach / Broward border for 3 months every winter and I usually go down and spend a week with them and a week in Downtown Miami - and it makes no sense to me how (especially Miami) is shifting right. Nothing about Miami says Republican

Cubans/Venezuelans.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does anyone think the shift in the Big 3 is a temporary Trump/DeSantis era thing. Or is it a long term thing. I mean it would totally buck the normal trends of high population - dense areas being Dem friendly (I mean it’s Dem friendly compared to the rest of Florida but this area - along with Hillsborough and Orange) acted as counterbalance to the rest of the state and now they’re becoming swing counties (and not the fun kind of swing).

My in laws stay on the Palm Beach / Broward border for 3 months every winter and I usually go down and spend a week with them and a week in Downtown Miami - and it makes no sense to me how (especially Miami) is shifting right. Nothing about Miami says Republican

I was just in the Miami area , and I’d say the vibe felt very Republican . It actually felt more Republican than it actually is so it made perfect sense why it’s trending Republican.

I will say though that despite all the hate it gets on here , South Florida is an extremely fun place to be and the food is amazing as well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is Safe R regardless

[Devils30]

Does anyone think the shift in the Big 3 is a temporary Trump/DeSantis era thing. Or is it a long term thing. I mean it would totally buck the normal trends of high population - dense areas being Dem friendly (I mean it’s Dem friendly compared to the rest of Florida but this area - along with Hillsborough and Orange) acted as counterbalance to the rest of the state and now they’re becoming swing counties (and not the fun kind of swing).

My in laws stay on the Palm Beach / Broward border for 3 months every winter and I usually go down and spend a week with them and a week in Downtown Miami - and it makes no sense to me how (especially Miami) is shifting right. Nothing about Miami says Republican

I was just in the Miami area , and I’d say the vibe felt very Republican . It actually felt more Republican than it actually is so it made perfect sense why it’s trending Republican.

I will say though that despite all the hate it gets on here , South Florida is an extremely fun place to be and the food is amazing as well

If secular Jews end up swinging right if Dems nominate a Warren/AOC, Palm Beach might look like Howard County, Iowa. I think there is a decent shot in 12 years both PBC, Dade are red and Broward is down to like 57-42 Dem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone think the shift in the Big 3 is a temporary Trump/DeSantis era thing. Or is it a long term thing. I mean it would totally buck the normal trends of high population - dense areas being Dem friendly (I mean it’s Dem friendly compared to the rest of Florida but this area - along with Hillsborough and Orange) acted as counterbalance to the rest of the state and now they’re becoming swing counties (and not the fun kind of swing).

My in laws stay on the Palm Beach / Broward border for 3 months every winter and I usually go down and spend a week with them and a week in Downtown Miami - and it makes no sense to me how (especially Miami) is shifting right. Nothing about Miami says Republican

To be fair South Florida is massive - there are some pockets that give Dems strong margins and aren't really shifting right. My sense it it's a combination of certain Hispanic groups shifting hard right and some self sorting amongst the upper middle classs/wealthy Republican folks into South Florida.