Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Tender Branson]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

That's a good point.  If the sample is 25% non-white, Obama would have to be leading by a barely 3:2 margin among non-whites.  Kerry's margin was more like 5:2, even in the ill-adjusted exit poll.

It´s really freaking me out, after running through his numbers on the calculator:

Let´s assume a very pessimistic sample for Obama:

80% Whites: Obama @ 44% support
9% African Americans: Obama @ 92% support

With these numbers alone, Obama receives a minimum of 43.5%.

9% Hispanics
2% Others

To get 47% overall, he would have to get only 1/3 (!!!) of Hispanics and Asians. Last time I checked, Obama got more than 60% in every poll (Rasmussen and Gallup) ...

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - July 30, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 46% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, -2)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi.

At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska...

Fingers crossed guys!!!

It won´t be close. Yesterday they mentioned Birch Bayh in one of their releases ...

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Presidential polling will be released for Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. [/i]

Kentucky: McCain 55%, Obama 39%

Montana: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

Texas: McCain 53%, Obama 42%

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Presidential polling will be released for Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. [/i]

Kentucky: McCain 55%, Obama 39%

Montana: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

Texas: McCain 53%, Obama 42%

Are those the real numbers or your predictions?

Wait until 5PM ...

[Tender Branson]

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

E-Mail I got from Rasmussen:

"We’re not sure where you saw the reference to McCain leading 50% to 44% among White Voters. But, that would have been a typo. If it’s still on the site, please send me the URL so we can fix it. Today, McCain leads 55% to 37% among White Voters. Thank you for your interest in our work, Scott Rasmussen."

Of course they changed it to a 54-40 White lead for McCain now, because 50-44 would have been ridiculous ...

[Tender Branson]

Oh Nooo ! It's Obama again !

Wednesday - August 6, 2008:

Obama: 45%, with leaners 47%, (+1, +1)
MCCain: 43%, with leaners 46%, (-1, -1)


Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, nc)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)


At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new data on how viewers of different networks and news sources are planning to vote.

Data on the New Jersey Senate race will also be released at 3:00.

At 5:00 p.m., the latest numbers on the Presidential race in New Jersey and New York will be released.

[Tender Branson]

Only up 21 among Hispanics? The other polls have it as a 2-1 margin for Obama.

But at least you can't say that Rasmussen is underpolling the black margin for Obama.

It would be interesting what the composition looks like in Rasmussen's daily tracking. Maybe 7% of Rasmussen's sample is Hispanic/African-American, but 10% will be Hispanic/African-American on Election Day. Is phone ownership among Hispanics and African-Americans lower than among Whites ? Maybe some Hispanics just hang up the phone because they can't understand a single question the computer voice is asking them, but on Election Day they'll make their cross next to Obama's name ...

[Tender Branson]

Sunday, August 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -1)

80% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama while 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable - 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Note that exactly 4 years ago Bush moved ahead of Kerry indefinitely. Only a few dubious polls (Zogby/Harris) from Mid-August on had Kerry slightly ahead. All others started showing Bush up by 5-10. Rasmussen for example noted that Kerry never led in their weekly tracking average from August 19 on to Election Day. It's very different this year: If we include the Research2000 poll that was somehow not included in the RCP average, Obama currently leads by 5%. Even if we just take into account Rasmussen and Gallup, it's Obama by 3-4%. Another point: I want an Indiana poll ... soon if possible !

[Tender Branson]

No Rassy polls today?

Just some useless policy issue questions it looks like.

I just e-mailed Rasmussen if they ever plan to conduct an Indiana poll before the election. There's been no serious poll from Indiana since about 3 months now. This is one state that should be polled once in a while ...

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - August 13, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 48%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Obama is supported by 12% of Republicans while McCain earns the vote from 16% of Democrats. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans offer a favorable opinion of Obama while 29% of Democrats say the same about McCain.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, nc)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data from Kansas will be released and, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Virginia and Nevada.

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data from Kansas will be released and, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Virginia and Nevada.

Ok, I'm sure there are good reasons for releasing information at those times and in that order, but the effect is just cruel.

Kansas: McCain 52%, Obama 39%

Virginia: Obama 46%, McCain 46%

Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 46%

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Tender Branson]

I just e-mailed Rasmussen if they ever plan to conduct an Indiana poll before the election. There's been no serious poll from Indiana since about 3 months now. This is one state that should be polled once in a while ...

Finally, Rasmussen replied:

"Thank you for taking the time to write.  There will be a new poll on Indiana soon."

[Tender Branson]

It's amazing how similar the numbers from today are compared with the week before the 2004 DEM convention. Rasmussen showed Kerry ahead by 0.8% in the week before the DNC and RCP had Kerry ahead by 1-3%. Today, it's Obama by 1 and by 3-4% at RCP. The week ending with August 19, 2004 was also the last time that Rasmussen showed Kerry leading.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_vs_kerry_historical.html

[Tender Branson]

what

no biden bounce

obama should have been up by double digits

uh oh

The "Biden Bounce" (if there is any) won't be visible until Tuesday/Wednesday, because of the 3-day-tracking.

The Biden favorables above are from Thursday polling. Rasmussen & Gallup also polled Biden again yesterday and found:

Rasmussen

Biden the right choice ? 39% Yes, 25% No

Biden is now viewed favorably by 48% of voters and unfavorably by 34%.

Overall, 32% said the selection of Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama and an identical percentage said it made them less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 25% are more likely to vote for Biden while 33% had the opposite view.

Gallup

Just 14% of registered voters interviewed in a new USA Today/Gallup poll say Biden makes them more likely to vote for Obama in November and 7% say less likely while 72% say he will not have much effect on their vote.

Biden: 34% favorable, 15% unfavorable

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 24, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (+1, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable  (+1)
Obama: 55% favorable  (nc)

[Tender Branson]

How can Rasmussen say: "The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama." when he led by 3% before the convention ?

It would be a bounce if he led by 5. Or was last night in particular very favorable for Obama to make this suggestion ?

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 31, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate. There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement.

Favorability

Obama: 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

[Tender Branson]

Compared with the Rasmussen Weekly Tracking Poll from exactly 4 years ago, the numbers are completely reversed:

Week ending Sept. 2, 2004:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 46%

Today:

Obama - 49%
McCain - 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

Republicans had, well, had mostly completed, their convention by that point.

Not that it really matters much.  2004 was an incredibly galvanized year--results ranged from Bush +2.8 to Kerry +2.8.  Bumps, all movements, were smaller.

No, Bush+16 actually - but let me come back to this in about 2-3 weeks when a post-convention comparison with 2004 makes more sense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html (scroll down to bottom)

[Tender Branson]

Oh No, this is the end for Obama !

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 50%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama currently leads McCain by fourteen points among women but trails by four among men. Obama does better among those who would prefer a glass of wine than he does with beer drinkers. McCain has a huge lead among gun owners while Obama leads among households without a gun.

Favorability

Obama: 59% favorable, 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Tender Branson]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.

Ah, I've kind of been saying that for a while.

Still, I expected an increase for McCain.  The favorable/unfavorable numbers are what I've expected, however.

What do you think the margin will be by Tuesday?

I expect, on one of the polls, to see a +4 McCain or either Rasmussen or Gallup.  I have to admit, I thought the numbers today would be higher.

It will be Obama by 2-4%.