Trump polling well among minorities...does that worry you Biden supporters?

[BaldEagle1991]

Do you think hearing how Trump is mysteriously (I say this cause, you know how he is) is poling well among Latinos and African Americans (maybe Asians too), that does this worry you about Biden's chances?

If you think this is some weird notion, may I remind you that what doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016 were her poor performances among Black and Brown voters compared to Obama in 08 & 12.

[wbrocks67]

He's not though.

Trump was at 3% and 2% among black voters in the most recent North Carolina polls (CNN/NYT). Biden is polling above Clinton among Hispanics in NV, CA, AZ, etc.

[BaldEagle1991]

He's not though.

Trump was at 3% and 2% among black voters in the most recent North Carolina polls (CNN/NYT). Biden is polling above Clinton among Hispanics in NV, CA, AZ, etc.

Yet there's this: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/does-joe-biden-have-latino-voter-problem/616394/

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/18/biden-black-latino-voters-417473

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

No. He’s getting marginally better support among Black men and Latino men, the former of which have always been the weakest links of the black community. They’re both also some of the lowest turnout demographic groups of them all, so it won’t really translate to much support on Election Day.

[Horus]

Trump was expected to be an anti black and brown racist as well as xenophobic, but has turned out to only be xenophobic. So there's gonna be an improvement with black and hispanic voters. Will it be enough to offset Biden's gains with whites? Most here say no, I am unconvinced.

[Splash]

I will lend some credence to the possibility of that being true with Cuban voters in FL but no group beyond that as of yet. The margin of error is so large with some of these sub-samples that I don't think you can conclusively say that Trump is polling better than the exits in 2016.  

[McGarnagle]

Trump was expected to be an anti black and brown racist as well as xenophobic, but has turned out to only be xenophobic.

When Trump attacks BLM protesters but defends Kyle Rittenhouse, he is being anti-black.

When he says "My African American", he is being anti-black.

When he said there are "very fine people on both sides" in Charlottesville when one of those sides was white supremacists, he is being anti-black.

[Horus]

Trump was expected to be an anti black and brown racist as well as xenophobic, but has turned out to only be xenophobic.

When Trump attacks BLM protesters but defends Kyle Rittenhouse, he is being anti-black.

When he says "My African American", he is being anti-black.

When he said there are "very fine people on both sides" in Charlottesville when one of those sides was white supremacists, he is being anti-black.

I personally agree, but 10-15% of black Americans oppose the blm movement, this has been shown in several polls now.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Trump was expected to be an anti black and brown racist as well as xenophobic, but has turned out to only be xenophobic.

When Trump attacks BLM protesters but defends Kyle Rittenhouse, he is being anti-black.

When he says "My African American", he is being anti-black.

When he said there are "very fine people on both sides" in Charlottesville when one of those sides was white supremacists, he is being anti-black.

I personally agree, but 10-15% of black Americans oppose the blm movement, this has been shown in several polls now.

I would honestly say that a good amount of these people are only listening to the president/the news on a surface level, as they tend to cover only the riots and violent events but not the daily peaceful protests in nearly every major city since May.

It isn't national news because there is no profit, there is no call to arms, there is no result other than legislation change.

[Pericles]

Is Biden actually polling worse than Hilary polled with Hispanics, or does polling of Hispanics just systematically underestimate Democrats? Genuine question here.

[Non Swing Voter]

No, because I don't believe it.  Over the last 3 or 4 years I've read stories about how this group or that group was turning out, not turning out, shifting in their preferences, etc., then each and every election I've looked at closely, demographic groups have voted pretty much exactly how you expected them to.  People aren't being manipulated by some issue.  Donald Trump suddenly giving billions in aid to Puerto Rico years after a hurricane isn't going to shift the Puerto Rican vote.  The Supreme Court vacancy isn't going to shift the suburbs. 

Minorities are going to support Biden by wide margins.  White college educated voters are going to support Biden by a moderately large margin.  Whites without college degrees are going to support Trump.  This is a turnout election.  If all groups turnout Biden will win.  If Trump's base makes up a larger share of the electorate than their proportion of the population Trump wins.  It's as simple as that.

[DINGO Joe]

He's not though.

Trump was at 3% and 2% among black voters in the most recent North Carolina polls (CNN/NYT). Biden is polling above Clinton among Hispanics in NV, CA, AZ, etc.

Yet there's this: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/does-joe-biden-have-latino-voter-problem/616394/

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/18/biden-black-latino-voters-417473

The politico one was painful to read because it's so insider.  Lots of consultants talking their book, "look, fund me and I can fix the (not easily quantifiable) problem for you"

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Do you think hearing how Trump is mysteriously (I say this cause, you know how he is) is poling well among Latinos and African Americans (maybe Asians too), that does this worry you about Biden's chances?

If you think this is some weird notion, may I remind you that what doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016 were her poor performances among Black and Brown voters compared to Obama in 08 & 12.

Can you get any more melodramatic? It's very grating and feels like you just started this thread to get a rise out of folks

[Bootes Void]

I don't get the obsession over identity politics, if Biden has better polling and perhaps better results why should we care. He wins the race and that's all there is to it.

And besides this whole idea that Trump is doing better among black voters is ridiculous and not true, also turnout will matter just as much

[BaldEagle1991]

Do you think hearing how Trump is mysteriously (I say this cause, you know how he is) is poling well among Latinos and African Americans (maybe Asians too), that does this worry you about Biden's chances?

If you think this is some weird notion, may I remind you that what doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016 were her poor performances among Black and Brown voters compared to Obama in 08 & 12.

Can you get any more melodramatic? It's very grating and feels like you just started this thread to get a rise out of folks

These are facts

[Hammy]

Do you think hearing how Trump is mysteriously (I say this cause, you know how he is) is poling well among Latinos and African Americans (maybe Asians too), that does this worry you about Biden's chances?

If you think this is some weird notion, may I remind you that what doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016 were her poor performances among Black and Brown voters compared to Obama in 08 & 12.

Remember when Hillary was consistently close to 50% and leading in a ton of swing states with low undecideds? Oh wait, she wasn't, because 2016 and 2020 are two completely different election dynamics.

Hispanic support for Dems is often under-polled, especially in the south and west. Similarly, Republican support among black voters is often over-estimated.

Politico and CNN (which the Atlantic cited) are not legitimate sources. They are political tabloids seeking to create a narrative because they want ratings and money.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nope. On the contrary, I think it might lead to a bigger polling error that benefits Biden. Minorities are typically very hard to poll, and I doubt that they are going to be anywhere near as Trump friendly as these crosstabs generally show.

[wbrocks67]

Nope. On the contrary, I think it might lead to a bigger polling error that benefits Biden. Minorities are typically very hard to poll, and I doubt that they are going to be anywhere near as Trump friendly as these crosstabs generally show.

and the polling itself is terrible for Trump. He's getting 5% among black voters in the NBC/WSJ national poll today

[afleitch]

Latino
Voters
Are
Not
Monolithic.

[Ferguson97]

Trump’s improving with Cubans but that’s about it. Any gains he makes with men of color will be outmatched by Biden’s gains with white women.

So it makes me slightly worried about Florida but that’s it.