Republicans have increased their chances of taking over the senate by picking true winners in the mold of Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock
Sadly, those are the Republicans most likely to win. It's the "common sense" Republicans like Scott Brown and Tommy Thompson that are probably going to drop the ball.
I wouldn't call running well ahead of your party's presidential nominee dropping the ball.
The tea party will. If Brown and Thompson (not that he's in any way a moderate) lose but Mourdock and Akin win then expect to hear "Republicans only win when they nominate true conservatives" and even more bloodletting in 2014.