Non-VRA non-urban CDs/areas that have been rep'd by a Dem since at least the 90s

[nclib]

None: AL, AK, AR, DE, ID, IL, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Arizona (assuming the two Hispanic CDs are VRA)
Georgia (assuming GA-2 is VRA)
Texas (assuming all current Dem areas are VRA)

Colorado   CO-2 flipped in 1974
Connecticut   CT-1 flipped in 1958, CT-3 flipped in 1982   
Hawaii   HI-1 Djou 2010 in a special election - otherwise 1990; HI-2 always Dem - started in 1970 - HI-AL was always Dem since statehood in 1959
Indiana   IN-1 flipped in 1930
Iowa   Lucas, Monroe, Marion, Mahaska, Keokuk, Jasper flipped in 1996
Maine   ME-1 flipped in 1996
Maryland   1990s MD-3 and MD-5 have been Dem since at least 1992, MD-3 likely 1926, MD-5 likely 1974
Minnesota   MN-4 flipped in 1948, MN-7 flipped in 1990
New Mexico   NM-3 was briefly held by the GOP a special election in 1998, otherwise Democratic since 1982
North Carolina   southern half of Orange, far-south Durham County, and some of Wake last flipped in 1996
Ohio   parts of OH-9 (1982) and OH-13 (formerly OH-17) (1984)
Oregon   OR-3 flipped in 1954, OR-1 and OR-4 flipped in 1974, OR-5 flipped in 1996
Pennsylvania   Schuylkill County last flipped in 1962, parts of Montgomery County last flipped in 1998
Rhode Island   RI-2 flipped in 1990, RI-1 flipped in 1994
Vermont   counting Bernie as a Dem, flipped in 1990
Virginia   VA-8 flipped in 1990
Washington   1990s WA-6 (1964), 1990s WA-9 (1996), 1990s WA-1 (1998)
Wisconsin   Eau Claire flipped in 1972, rest of WI-3 flipped in 1996, WI-2 flipped in 1998

unsure...can anyone pitch in?

California
Florida
Massachusetts   
Michigan
New Jersey   NJ-1 flipped in 1974, unknown for NJ-6, 8, 9, 10, 12
New York   Buffalo CD (Erie and Niagara), Rochester CD (Monroe), Albany CD (Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga, Montgomery, Rensselaer), Westchester CDs, Nassau CDs, parts of Suffolk (1999); parts of Orange and Dutchess

[Adam Griffin]

I could be misremembering, but I do not believe GA-2 is mandated as a VRA district; rather, its current incarnation in 2011 was designed to be a vote-sink so that people like Jim Marshall couldn't break through in multiple districts in the southern half of the state. I know for a fact that it wasn't majority-black when drawn (though a district doesn't have to be so to be protected).

[Greedo punched first]

I could be misremembering, but I do not believe GA-2 is mandated as a VRA district; rather, its current incarnation in 2011 was designed to be a vote-sink so that people like Jim Marshall couldn't break through in multiple districts in the southern half of the state. I know for a fact that it wasn't majority-black when drawn (though a district doesn't have to be so to be protected).

GA-2 is a VRA district. All four Democratic districts are VRA districts.

[Torie]

I could be misremembering, but I do not believe GA-2 is mandated as a VRA district; rather, its current incarnation in 2011 was designed to be a vote-sink so that people like Jim Marshall couldn't break through in multiple districts in the southern half of the state. I know for a fact that it wasn't majority-black when drawn (though a district doesn't have to be so to be protected).

GA-2 is a VRA district. All four Democratic districts are VRA districts.

Nice research work, but the link you found is back from 2011. Since then, SCOTUS has dumped "retrogression" and Section 5 of the VRA. To trigger the VRA, one must be able to draw a "compact" CD that is 50% BVAP, and if one can, then at least a "performing" minority CD must be drawn (blacks are either a majority of the Dem primary vote, or whites do not vote anti-black as a block). It is not possible to draw such a 50% BVAP CD in this instance (I just tried to make sure), so it is not under current law a VRA protected CD.

[DC Al Fine]

What counts as urban vs non-urban. You mentioned upstate New York districts focused on Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, but those are all mid-size cities, no?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He also mentioned MN-4, which is based around St. Paul.

[DPKdebator]

MA-04 (except for half of Fall River) and MA-06 do not have any major cities in them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What counts as urban vs non-urban. You mentioned upstate New York districts focused on Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, but those are all mid-size cities, no?

I personally would consider those mini-metro seats.

[Torie]

What counts as urban vs non-urban. You mentioned upstate New York districts focused on Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, but those are all mid-size cities, no?

I personally would consider those mini-metro seats.

The Buffalo area covers about 1.5 CD's, so I would not characterize that as mini myself. Rochester is about exactly equal to one CD. Albany also has about 1.5 CD's. To me mini means a metro area that takes in considerably less than one CD, say one half or less. That would be like Schenectady. YMMV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What counts as urban vs non-urban. You mentioned upstate New York districts focused on Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, but those are all mid-size cities, no?

I personally would consider those mini-metro seats.

The Buffalo area covers about 1.5 CD's, so I would not characterize that as mini myself. Rochester is about exactly equal to one CD. Albany also has about 1.5 CD's. To me mini means a metro area that takes in considerably less than one CD, say one half or less. That would be like Schenectady. YMMV.

You raise a good point here. I am defining it too widely.
for New York it could be:
Urban is every CD in NYC+Albany CD+Rochester CD+Buffalo CD
Suburban is every CD in Long Island+SPM's seat+Lowey's seat
Mini metro is the Syracuse CD (Onondaga County has less people than Monroe County and needs some of the Finger Lakes region to reach quota)
everything else is rural

[Torie]

What counts as urban vs non-urban. You mentioned upstate New York districts focused on Albany, Rochester and Buffalo, but those are all mid-size cities, no?

I personally would consider those mini-metro seats.

The Buffalo area covers about 1.5 CD's, so I would not characterize that as mini myself. Rochester is about exactly equal to one CD. Albany also has about 1.5 CD's. To me mini means a metro area that takes in considerably less than one CD, say one half or less. That would be like Schenectady. YMMV.

You raise a good point here. I am defining it too widely.
for New York it could be:
Urban is every CD in NYC+Albany CD+Rochester CD+Buffalo CD
Suburban is every CD in Long Island+SPM's seat+Lowey's seat
Mini metro is the Syracuse CD (Onondaga County has less people than Monroe County and needs some of the Finger Lakes region to reach quota)
everything else is rural

Another possible candidate is Oneida County (Rome-Utica), which is about a third of a CD.

[nclib]

I don't consider mid-size cities urban for the purposes of this thread, though I probably should count Buffalo as urban. As a general rule, I counted center cities of metros with major professional sports (NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL), though I wasn't sure what to do with places like St. Paul.

Anyone want to take a stab at any of the undone/incomplete states?

[DC Al Fine]

I don't consider mid-size cities urban for the purposes of this thread, though I probably should count Buffalo as urban. As a general rule, I counted center cities of metros with major professional sports (NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL), though I wasn't sure what to do with places like St. Paul.

Anyone want to take a stab at any of the undone/incomplete states?

MI-5 would count. The Detroit districts are kind of weird and all the urban ones seem to include suburban areas, but I think they're still too urban to fit your criteria.

[nclib]

Massachusetts

1990s MA-3 and MA-6 flipped in 1996. 1980s MA-1 flipped in 1991. Everything else has been Democratic since at least 1982.

[nclib]

I made a map of counties that have areas that have stayed Democratic since at least the 1990s. I included all, including ones that are urban and/or VRA:

[Mr.Phips]

None: AL, AK, AR, DE, ID, IL, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Arizona (assuming the two Hispanic CDs are VRA)
Georgia (assuming GA-2 is VRA)
Texas (assuming all current Dem areas are VRA)

Colorado   CO-2 flipped in 1974
Connecticut   CT-1 flipped in 1958, CT-3 flipped in 1982   
Hawaii   HI-1 Djou 2010 in a special election - otherwise 1990; HI-2 always Dem - started in 1970 - HI-AL was always Dem since statehood in 1959
Indiana   IN-1 flipped in 1930
Iowa   Lucas, Monroe, Marion, Mahaska, Keokuk, Jasper flipped in 1996
Maine   ME-1 flipped in 1996
Maryland   1990s MD-3 and MD-5 have been Dem since at least 1992, MD-3 likely 1926, MD-5 likely 1974
Minnesota   MN-4 flipped in 1948, MN-7 flipped in 1990
New Mexico   NM-3 was briefly held by the GOP a special election in 1998, otherwise Democratic since 1982
North Carolina   southern half of Orange, far-south Durham County, and some of Wake last flipped in 1996
Ohio   parts of OH-9 (1982) and OH-13 (formerly OH-17) (1984)
Oregon   OR-3 flipped in 1954, OR-1 and OR-4 flipped in 1974, OR-5 flipped in 1996
Pennsylvania   Schuylkill County last flipped in 1962, parts of Montgomery County last flipped in 1998
Rhode Island   RI-2 flipped in 1990, RI-1 flipped in 1994
Vermont   counting Bernie as a Dem, flipped in 1990
Virginia   VA-8 flipped in 1990
Washington   1990s WA-6 (1964), 1990s WA-9 (1996), 1990s WA-1 (1998)
Wisconsin   Eau Claire flipped in 1972, rest of WI-3 flipped in 1996, WI-2 flipped in 1998

unsure...can anyone pitch in?

California
Florida
Massachusetts   
Michigan
New Jersey   NJ-1 flipped in 1974, unknown for NJ-6, 8, 9, 10, 12
New York   Buffalo CD (Erie and Niagara), Rochester CD (Monroe), Albany CD (Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga, Montgomery, Rensselaer), Westchester CDs, Nassau CDs, parts of Suffolk (1999); parts of Orange and Dutchess

NJ-06 would have been 1964 (although the district didn't go into Middlesex until 1992, it was basically all of Monmouth and a few towns in Ocean until then). 

NJ-08 would have been 1957 when a GOP rep switched parties
NJ-09 was 1996 when Pascrell beat Bill Martini.
NJ-10 was 1948.