Biden campaign internal polling across the map

[It’s so Joever]

Atlas Dems:  get irrationally upset when the abstract “media” “feeds the horse race”  but simultaneously believes its good electoral strategy for Biden

Read:  “Everyone else can think we’re winning BUT NOT US!!”

Lol

You usually make perfectly coherent posts, Del Tachi, but I'm having trouble with this one.

This is the best post Del Tachi has ever made, what. Most of his posts aren't coherent but this is a bizarre trend I've seen from left-wing posters on this website.

The bar is so low, it’s starting to melt from the heat of the Earth’s Mantle.

[Lief 🗽]

High res version of the map:

[UncleSam]

Atlas Dems:  get irrationally upset when the abstract “media” “feeds the horse race”  but simultaneously believes its good electoral strategy for Biden

Read:  “Everyone else can think we’re winning BUT NOT US!!”

Lol

You usually make perfectly coherent posts, Del Tachi, but I'm having trouble with this one.

This is the best post Del Tachi has ever made, what. Most of his posts aren't coherent but this is a bizarre trend I've seen from left-wing posters on this website.

No no, I meant I'm too dumb to understand what he's trying to say.

Oh gotcha, I think what he's saying is that Democrats simultaneously promote the idea that Biden is massively ahead (while condemning any polls or news organizations showing a close-ish race as 'trash' or 'garbage') while also stating that advertising the race as close is important for the Biden campaign to avoid complacency.

Essentially, they want Democrats to believe the race is close and everyone else to think it's over, which is a bizarre contortionist act I've seen undertaken countless times on this forum.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

High res version of the map:

That NE-02 number 👀

[Torrain]

High res version of the map:

You're a hero, thank you.

Also, can we talk about +3.6% in Georgia? That kind of margin would make Ossoff and Warnock's jobs rather easier....

[Lief 🗽]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

Because a lot of idiots think that since places like Iowa and Ohio were won by Democrats more recently than GA and TX were, they are more winnable. Of course, that’s stupid, because that would imply that WV is more winnable than Florida

[Gass3268]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

Honesty they are not that different from the public averages, give or take a point or two. I also agree, I don't think they would release their real numbers.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I thought I was going out on a limb in predicting GA voting left of NC, but GA voting left of AZ?

[Hammy]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

Look at what the colors mean. These aren't ranked by "priorities"--the lighter states are states that Hillary lost that Biden intends to win back, darker ones are ones that she won that he is defending.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know this already, but it can be a wave it depends on if Biden gets 70 M or above votes


Most of the inflated polls are from foreign media outlets like R and W

[Lief 🗽]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

Look at what the colors mean. These aren't ranked by "priorities"--the lighter states are states that Hillary lost that Biden intends to win back, darker ones are ones that she won that he is defending.

No, I know that. But Biden has visited Ohio to campaign a few times now; he hasn’t visited either Texas or Georgia yet. His campaign is also spending more in Ohio than the other two. So at least based on that, they are acting like Ohio is the most winnable of the three.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

Look at what the colors mean. These aren't ranked by "priorities"--the lighter states are states that Hillary lost that Biden intends to win back, darker ones are ones that she won that he is defending.

No, I know that. But Biden has visited Ohio to campaign a few times now; he hasn’t visited either Texas or Georgia yet. His campaign is also spending more in Ohio than the other two. So at least based on that, they are acting like Ohio is the most winnable of the three.

Recency bias. When Biden was last on the ticket, Dems won Ohio and Georgia and Texas were safely red. People have trouble adjusting to the new reality of a different ballgame than 2012 was.

[The Mikado]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

"The race is a lot closer than it's being portrayed! We don't have a double digit lead!"

"Also, our internals have Georgia swinging 9 points towards us vs 2016...ignore that please."

[forsythvoter]

The GA numbers are surprisingly pro-Biden. That said, the Trump campaign has been spending time in the Macon, GA area this week so maybe their polls are picking up on the same trendlines here. The other state numbers seem pretty reasonable.

[TheLaRocca]

The GA numbers are surprisingly pro-Biden. That said, the Trump campaign has been spending time in the Macon, GA area this week so maybe their polls are picking up on the same trendlines here. The other state numbers seem pretty reasonable.

I don't think GA votes that different from WI/MI (GA was +5 GOP and WI +1GOP last time and Georgia has only trended more democrat since then).

[forsythvoter]

That's true. It's not impossible to imagine Biden actually winning GA by 3.6%, especially with the D trends we'll likely see in the ATL metro area.

PA is also surprisingly less pro-Biden than I would have expected. If metro Philly and Pittsburgh are expected and NE PA is swinging 10+ points to the Dems based on GOP internal polls, there would have to be some counter trends in some other parts of the state for the state to only be +4.4 Biden.

The GA numbers are surprisingly pro-Biden. That said, the Trump campaign has been spending time in the Macon, GA area this week so maybe their polls are picking up on the same trendlines here. The other state numbers seem pretty reasonable.

I don't think GA votes that different from WI/MI (GA was +5 GOP and WI +1GOP last time and Georgia has only trended more democrat since then).

[TheLaRocca]

That's true. It's not impossible to imagine Biden actually winning GA by 3.6%, especially with the D trends we'll likely see in the ATL metro area.

PA is also surprisingly less pro-Biden than I would have expected. If metro Philly and Pittsburgh are expected and NE PA is swinging 10+ points to the Dems based on GOP internal polls, there would have to be some counter trends in some other parts of the state for the state to only be +4.4 Biden.

The GA numbers are surprisingly pro-Biden. That said, the Trump campaign has been spending time in the Macon, GA area this week so maybe their polls are picking up on the same trendlines here. The other state numbers seem pretty reasonable.

I don't think GA votes that different from WI/MI (GA was +5 GOP and WI +1GOP last time and Georgia has only trended more democrat since then).

Large swings in Scranton area to Biden and the Philly suburbs. Dead cat bounce in rural PA for Biden and slight swing to trump in Philly.

That's a +4 to +5 win (what I expect it to be).

Michigan and Wisconsin (ESP MICHIGAN) tend to overstate Democrats hard in polls.

The black vote in urban Atlanta was UP from 2012 (and mad rural blacks are moving to urban Atlanta) and from even 08. In 2018 black midterm turnout in Atlanta was slightly higher than 2016 (insane considering its a midterm year). On the other hand, it was terrible in the 2018 Detroit and 2020 Dem primary in Detroit.

[woodley park]

Tbh these numbers don't really make a lot of sense to me. First, why would the Biden campaign release their actual internal polling numbers in the first place? Second, why is Biden prioritizing Ohio over Texas and Georgia (at least based on ad spending and candidate visits) if he's in the weakest position in that state?

Because a lot of idiots think that since places like Iowa and Ohio were won by Democrats more recently than GA and TX were, they are more winnable. Of course, that’s stupid, because that would imply that WV is more winnable than Florida

I'm having trouble following. Why would anyone think that West Virginia is more winnable than Florida, when Florida last voted blue in 2012 and remains a toss-up but West Virginia last voted blue in 1996, and has gotten redder by the year? I'd appreciate a better comparison to help understand your point.

[NOVA Green]

So.... do we treat this as a Partisan internal and automatically subtract 5% off the margins, which I believe is the usual Atlas / Talk Elections CW?   

If so, it appears that PA is a Tilt Trump, and WI and MI are nail-biters and everything else is gone with narrow Biden wins in MN and NV.

Hell, at least we get the consolation prize of Biden winning NE-02, while simultaneously losing the PRES election.

Double Dog Dare Team Trump to flash their internals as well, or maybe we are already getting their data out of Trafalgar?

Regardless--- DEMs likely aren't showing all of their numbers, but at least are more honest about their internals than "Team Pub".

[Del Tachi]

Atlas Dems:  get irrationally upset when the abstract “media” “feeds the horse race”  but simultaneously believes its good electoral strategy for Biden

Read:  “Everyone else can think we’re winning BUT NOT US!!”

Lol

A campaign that is smart is never going to publicly push a landslide narrative because it's not wise. That's completely different than the media trying to manipulate the election in order for it to be closer.

Either the race is close or it isn't.  Democrats (both here and in the broader liberal media) write off any public poll/pundit suggesting a competitive race, but then laud Biden for "pushing back" against this same narrative by doing the bare minimum you would expect from a political campaign (investing in the decisive states.)  This is the kind of double-speak indicative of terminal stage politics brain.

It is not "manipulation" for media to ask Biden tough questions or hold to him to account on his record.  What are you even accusing the media of doing here?  How do you believe they are mischaracterizing the race?  Is it the job of the media to report polls and pundits' prognostications as if they were determinative?   

[Ferguson97]

One of two things is true:

The numbers O'Malley are implying are in fact, real.

Biden is leading by double digits, but O'Malley wants to make sure supporters don't get complacent.

[The Mikado]

One of two things is true:

The numbers O'Malley are implying are in fact, real.

Biden is leading by double digits, but O'Malley wants to make sure supporters don't get complacent.

Three: those numbers aren't actually inconsistent with a Biden 10 point national lead.

[Pericles]

So Biden's campaign is predicting the 350 EV map?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The internal polls here are suggesting state-level trends are stronger than public polling indicates. That IA number can't be good for Greenfield.