Take a Guess...

[Smid]

Since the Random Maps Thread has collapsed into a "me v..." thread, I'm putting these maps here:

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I: 5%.

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 48%, I: 4%

Popular Vote - R: 49%, D: 47%, I: 5%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Something to do with Clinton'92 or Clinton'96 ?

[Smid]

Something to do with Clinton'92 or Clinton'96 ?

No...

[CPT MikeyMike]

Since the Random Maps Thread has collapsed into a "me v..." thread, I'm putting these maps here:

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I: 5%.

Bush defeats Carter in 1980 with Anderson as an Independent

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 48%, I: 4%

Maybe 1988 with a third party that takes away from Bush.

Popular Vote - R: 49%, D: 47%, I: 5%

A possible 2012 defeat for Obama with Romney as the GOP and probably a signifigant Green party candidate.

[Smid]

Good to see you around again, Capt MikeyMike!

No, the maps aren't speculative - they're completely quantitative. The I doesn't specifically relate to a particular independent and I guess should be more accurately described as "all other candidates"

[Smid]

Since no one seems to be able to guess this...

Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1908

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%.



Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1928

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 48%, I/O: 4%



Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1948

Popular Vote - R: 49%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1908

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%.

SC and MS are very surprising.

[hcallega]

Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1908

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%.

SC and MS are very surprising.

Its gotta be the margins in the bast 40 years.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Its gotta be the margins in the bast 40 years.

Those margins are nothing compared to the margins run in the 1908-1944 period.  Compare 1972 to 1936, and see what I mean.

[hcallega]

Its gotta be the margins in the bast 40 years.

Those margins are nothing compared to the margins run in the 1908-1944 period.  Compare 1972 to 1936, and see what I mean.

Yeah but it's not percentatges, it's votes. I phrased that poorly before.

[Smid]

Its gotta be the margins in the bast 40 years.

Those margins are nothing compared to the margins run in the 1908-1944 period.  Compare 1972 to 1936, and see what I mean.

Yeah but it's not percentatges, it's votes. I phrased that poorly before.

Exactly. It's not weighted, except by the fact that so many more people live in the US and vote now, compared to some of the years in the past. In that sense, the more recent elections are more heavily weighted, but it's only because of population growth, rather than a specific intention of mine to weight the more recent elections more heavily.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

[segwaystyle2012]

Interesting work, Smid. Can we get 1904-1960?

[Smid]

I'll give this some thought...

Interesting work, Smid. Can we get 1904-1960?

Sure, shouldn't take too long. I was also thinking of doing the same three maps, but for 1904-2004, 1924-2004 and 1944-2004 as a comparison (in other words, did Obama's victory in 2008 cause any states to "flip" from their historic level?).

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

i got another one. this one has to do with a party alignment.

gray are tossups states.

[Smid]

Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1908

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%.

Sum of all votes cast, 2004-1904

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%.

Closest states: Delaware - 48/48/4, 2,189,844 vs 2,185,173; North Carolina - 48/48/4, 16,577,018 vs 16,341,256.

States changing hands between the two maps (shown in 50% shades) and States changing shading depth (shown in 30% shades):

Closest state now is Wisconsin - 47/47/6, 19,988,318 vs 19,983,335.

[Smid]

Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1928

Popular Vote - R: 48%, D: 48%, I/O: 4%


Sum of all votes cast, 2004-1924

R: 48%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%

States changing hands between the two maps:

[Smid]

Sum of all votes cast, 2008-1948

Popular Vote - R: 49%, D: 47%, I/O: 5%


Sum of all votes cast, 2004-1944

Popular Vote - R: 49%, D: 46%, I/O: 5%

Changes from one map to the other:

[Smid]

In response to the earlier request for 1960-1904...

Popular Vote: R: 49%, D: 47%, I/O: 4%

I/O polled especially well in Mississippi (15%), South Carolina (10%) and Louisiana (10%).

The closest state was Hawaii - 50/50 - 92,295 vs 92,410

Unsurprisingly, the Democrats did best in Georgia (71%) and Mississippi (70%), but weren't far off those figures in South Carolina (67%), Alabama (65%), Louisiana (63%), Arkansas and Texas (each 62%), and North Carolina (59%). They were less strong in Florida and Virginia (each 54%), Tennessee (53%), Oklahoma (52%), West Virginia, Misouri and Kentucky (all 51%).

The Republicans received their strongest vote in Vermont (64%), followed by Maine (59%) and Kansas (57%). They were less strong in Iowa and New Hampshire (each 54%), Michigan and New Jersey (both 53%).