Czech parliamentary election 2013

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The elections will be held in 25-26 September.

Actual information about parties:

CSSD
Social democrats are splitted into two fractions - anti-zeman (more liberal, people behind chairman B. Sobotka) and pro-zeman (more conservative, people behind vice-chairman M. Hasek). Sobotka is losing his power, there are fear that Zeman could control the party.

ODS
This party is in crisis. Civic Democrats have problem with clientelism within the party and with disloyalty of its members (there were some MP's rebelling against party's leadership). After the end of Petr Necas is not sure, who will be head of the party. Some members are calling back "the father" of the party, Vaclav Klaus. He don't want to. ODS is now polling behind their rival on the right, TOP09.

Commies
Nothing new, most stable party in Czech republic. The electorate is slowly extincting.

TOP09
Enjoying their leading on the right. It is pretty success for the "marketing-made" party (the party name is meaning nothing, it's just "TOP choice in the elections"). Their campaign will be something like: "Stop the Zeman's dictatorship".

KDU-CSL
After the three years being out of the parliament, it seems that they may get back. The leader of the party is a little bit weirdo, but he have a clean hands.

SPOZ
The Zeman party. They help Zeman to win the presidential elections. After this election they have 5% in the polls, now they have about 3%. They want to candidate together with the CSSD, anti-zeman part of CSSD don't want to.


There is two new parties, which have chance to pass the threshold:

ANO ("YES")
The party founded and sponsored by multi-billionaire Andrej Babis. Andrej Babis bought one of most influential media group, he pay almost all billboards in the country for his party now and got some celebrities for the list of candidates. Ideologically they are some kind of populist, Babis want to "rule the state in the way he rules the company".

Úsvit ("Dawn")
The party founded by Czech-Japanese entrepreneur Tomio Okamura. Populism with nationalist tendency. They maybe merge with Public Affairs (VV), which would be bad for them.


And one caution - in the last two elections (presidential, regional) the polls wasn't so much accurate.

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We are looking at clear left-wing majority in the current polls. But will CSSD form a government with the support off KSCM? They will not propably form a formal coalition. Other possibilities are a coalitions with TOP09 and KDU-CSL (like the governments in 2002-2006) or with the support with ODS (as between 1998-2002). SPOZ, SZ or VV entering the parliament could effect the government formation only if  CSSD and KSCM does not get a clear majority or if CSSD decides to enter a coalition with TOP09 or another smaller party most likely SZ.

You tell the truth that the minority government of CSSD with the support of KSCM is most likely after elections. I don't think that CSSD will want to form government with TOP09 - this party is something like their arch-enemy. There is the option of some form of coalition between CSSD and ODS too - this parties have between 1998-2002 an agreement of tolerating Milos Zeman's cabinet. Milos Zeman is the president now and he is a fan of this kind of ruling (he mentioned the years of "Opposition agreement" like "the good years" in his inauguration speech). Coalition between CSSD and SPOZ in probably not possible because Zeman said that SPOZ would not form the government after this election (and he is non-formal leader of this party).

The perspective of social-democratic party government with the support of communist party is hardly acceptable for a lot people in Czech republic. This could cause a mobilization of right-wing voters (something like this happened in first round of presidential election because two ex-communist winning the polls). It is sure that TOP09 will make a big anti-zeman campaign. Some news are saying that CSSD is losing support a little now. So it is not certain that CSSD will have a "comfortable" position after election yet.

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Frankly, it should be another 60 years, at least, before anybody should be comfortable receiving support from the Commies. We need to wait until the last pre-1991 members of the party are dead.

The reason why nobody wants cooperate with communist party is not pre-1989 membership but the ideology. They are continuation of socialist regime ruling party and they are proud of the "good old times". Now they have completely different leadership than before 1989, former leaders are showed up only on May Day.
After 60 years there will be no communist party, I guess . The average age of KSCM members is 70 years. In 2010 there were only 359 people younger than 30 years in this party (from the number of 70 000). They have problem with their youth wing too - previous young communist organization, Komunisticky svaz mladeze ("Union of Communist Youth), was banned because calling for a violent revolution.

Being not an expert in Czech politics, I would like to know a bit more about the Commies. Obviously, Czech(-oslovakian) communism was always a bit different (Prague spring in 1967). I could imagine them being some kind of crossover between the French Communists (mining & metal processing tradition) and the German Linke (regionalist, anti-Prague, plus pensioners lobby). Not a dream junior partner, but also not too problematic policy-wise (the psychological aspect is different topic). Corruption might of course become an issue, but there a quite a lot of parties in Central Europe which have problems controlling their leadership once they have moved into the "right" positions...

Members involved into Prague Spring was expelled from the party in the process called "Normalization", which started just after Soviet invasion. After Velvet Revolution some communists called for the reformation of the party (renaming, social-democratic course etc). Some of them leave the party and formed "Party of the Democratic Socialism" (marginal now). There is two different groups in the party now - liberal (more eurocommunist) and orthodox (dogmatic, "stalinists"). There is no rivalry between them I think.

There's one major difference between the Czech Communists and the German Left:

The Czech Communists are still Communists.

Exactly. When Kim Jong-il died, they sent official condolence to the North Korea.

Should they not all be in jail?!

After Velvet Revolution Vaclav Havel said that "he don't want to be like them (communists)", so no people in jail.

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Some news from Czech politics:

Social Democrats started their campaign in Friday. They are promising cheaper medicinal drugs, higher minimum wage and create more jobs. Their main slogan this election will be: "We will push through good working state."

That all sounds great, but there are more and more signs of splitting inside the party. The regional delegates were voting the "candidate to Prime Minister" this weekend - some people tried to made a coup against the party chairman Bohuslav Sobotka. That was caused by President Milos Zeman, because he said that he may give the Prime Minister function not only to the party's chairman, but also to "the main person in the party" (it's clear that he mean his favorite in the party Michal Hasek). Sobotka have had the support only from 57% of the delegates and he is accusing some party's member from self-seeking now.

Vice chairman and former chairman of the Green Party Martin Bursik is leaving party. He is saying that the party is "too much leftist" (he was  representative of right-wing in the Green Party). There is some rumors he will join KDU-CSL (some journalist  saw him in christian democrats headquarters). Green Party had a very little chance to get to the parliament, now they have the minimal chance.

Supporters of former President Vaclav Klaus is founding a party. The name of the party will be Suverenita a prosperita - Klausovci ("Suverenity and prosperity - Klaus's people"). The funniest thing about it is their short name - SUPR Klausovci - which could be translated like "Cool Klaus's people".
Now we have a Zeman's people party and a Klaus's people party. Something is wrong, when political veterans don't want to retire.

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Any reason why the Czech Republic is the only non-Soviet Eastern bloc country to have a non-revisionist Communist Party?

I answer by translating part of this paper - kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/29231/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/f19f26d3-f6f3-4981-b93d-e7cd26eed8d9/cs/2004-11-Evropeizace+KSCM.pdf

"Instead of searching support in wider society and defining themselves like open, plural new left party, the leadership (under the pressure from below) concentrated to preservation of mass membership from the years of "normalization"* in 70's and 80's. This membership was dominated by conservative orientation and they aimed to continuation of traditional party identity and ideology. This kind of members is guaranteeing their support for leadership - certain place in the parliament and solid financial securing. The members are requiring that the leaders don't move from the traditional communist identity, which majority of membership consider like value for itself, they prefer it over practical politics and needs."

* - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalization_(Czechoslovakia)

I would add that the party have sufficient number of voters, even they are absolutely unreformed.

BTW There is still no new polls which could show situation after parliament dissolution.

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How's Jiri Paroubek's party doing? Did they absorb the old Social Nationalists/National Socialists?

About Jiri Paroubek - it is sad story. His party Narodni socialiste - Levice 21.století (National Socialist - 21th century left) merged not with original National Socialist, but with their split off Czech National Socialist Party 2005. Original Czech National Socialist Party (just to be sure - it isn't Nazi party) is accusing Paroubek of stealing their brand.
In the latest election - regional election - Jiri Paroubek's party have very well financed campaign. Despite this, their result was pretty bad - only 0,49%.  He paid 53 dollars for one vote.
Jiri Paroubek is great speaker and statesman (he was called "The bulldozer" in newspapers), but he is not strong in predicting. If he stayed in CSSD, he could have some function now. Now he is catching his last chance and is making a clown from themself for Czech tabloid Blesk (img.ahaonline.cz/img/18/full/1323608-img-jiri-paroubek-cviceni.jpg - Exercising with Jiri Paroubek)

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I'm still waiting for the polls. Meanwhile, Martin Bursik (former chairman of Green Party) is not going to Christian Democrats party, but he is forming his own party. The name will be Liberalne ekologicka strana (Liberal-ecologic Party). He get some popular people - for example activist Matej Hollan from Brno. I don't know If he have some chance to pass the threshold.
Ex-President Vaclav Klaus said that he will be not involved into next elections. So the "COOL Klaus's people" will be candidate without their Master.

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There is a new symptom of rotting inside the Czech Social Democratic Party. A few members are suing their own party because of not being on the list of candidates.  They are saying that there is no democracy inside the party - the regional commissions did not discuss the candidates with local cells.  The rebels are not just some losers - the main person in this case is the mayor of third biggest city in Czech republic.

The Tomio Okamura's party Usvit (Dawn) will candidate together with Moravian regionalist party Moravane (The Moravians). Tomio Okamura herself have Moravian mother and Japanese father. He made a millions in tourism, then he was spokesperson of employers in the tourism industry and became the television's favorite talking head. He is pretty popular, but have some controversial opinions ('Gypsies should make an own state like the Jews made the Israel'). He proclaimed his Moravian identity a several times. Thats probably why The Moravians are joining him. It's chance for the Moravian movement to be hear after 17 years.
(slovacky.denik.cz/galerie/foto.html?mm=tomio-okamura-vyskovec-221112-01 - Tomio Okamura in the Moravian folk costume)

I'm really looking forward for the polls - it will be interesting to see result of Social Democratic party after all that problems.

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I have said that you should not trust to Czech polls. I have a typical illustration why. Today was released a latest poll by medial agency Medea. This agency is owned by Czech businessman Jaromir Soukup. He is some kind of political entrepreneur - he supports some political parties before elections and after elections they give him more power. Now he is supporting Babis's party ANO and Okamura's party USVIT. In the poll made by his agency Medea these parties have very good result:

CSSD  25,4%
KSCM  13,7%
ANO  12%
ODS  10,8%
TOP09  9,7%
USVIT  8,6%
KDU-CSL   4,5%

(with the chart - tyden.cz/obrazek/201309/5227014187d46/volebni-prognoza-srpen-graf-522702979ed8e_521x419.jpg )


There is no another poll, so these numbers are unverifiable. But I think it is crazy, I can't believe that these parties are such a strong. And I'm not alone - only one news website publish this poll - Soukup's owned Tyden.cz (website of the magazine Tyden).

The poll description is strange too: "the lightning poll with the sample of 526 people chosen by quota, the margin of error is 0,9-4,4 %".

Jaromir Soukup supported a lot of parties in the past. In the 2010 parliamentary election he helped CSSD - they had a billboards with 90% sale for example. The latest Medea agency poll before election was so different from the election result! Here is shown which party have more in the poll than in election and which party have less:

CSSD +8,3 %
ODS -1,5 %
TOP09 -3,0 %
KSCM -1,3%
VV -1,1 %
SZ +2,5 %
KDU 0 %
SPOZ -0,6 %

It is so oblivious!

Another bad polling organizations are SANEP and PPM Factum. Median and CVVM are usable.

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Thanks for the info - hope you keep updating this thread.

It's a pleasure for me .

Today the Social Democrats started their campaign. They are continuing their tradition from previous parliamentary election and are promising the higher pensions. The new ideas are benefits for second and third child and comeback of sick benefits in first three days (canceling of it by right-wing government decreased workers sickness by half). What changed from last elections, they stopped giving free beer on their meetings .
The first meeting was in the Social Democrats stronghold Ostrava. The current leader, Bohuslav Sobotka, have probably bad memory about personal campaign - he was attacked in 2010 meeting.
The leadership send a "fashion manual" to their candidates. They are recommending suit without the tie, because "the tie is the symbol of the current (right wing) establishment". So nobody wear a tie in today's meeting - zpravy.idnes.cz/prvni-predvolebni-mitink-cssd-v-ostrave-fd4-/domaci.aspx?c=A130907_115650_domaci_kop .


The Civil Democratic Party is making a prologue to a campaign now. They get a billboards with a simple message "#Volim_pravici" ("#I_am_voting_the_right_wing") in the Twitter style. Without logo, the Civic Democrats are ashamed of their brand (in senate election a several candidates had propagation materials without logo too, ODS have reputation of the corruption party). A lot of people are confused about these billboards, because they don't know what it mean (they don't know what the Twitter is).
This messed up situation was used by small right wing party Svobodni ("The Freemans"). They steal the domain volimpravici.cz and when you search the hastag, majority of the tweets are about the Freemans.
There is picture of the billboard - i.lidovky.cz/13/091/lnorg/VAM4db61c_ODS02.jpg .

I will make the post with the posters and billboards, now I can't because limitation of the forum (no links and pics before 20 posts).

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Finally some trustworthy poll! It was made by local office of global polling organization TNS for the Czech Television.

There is the results (in the brackets is difference from 2010 Parliamentary election):

CSSD (Social Democrat)  28% (+6%)
KSCM (Communist)  15,5% (+3,5%)
TOP09 (center-right)  13% (-3,5%)
ODS (right-wing)  9,5% (-10,5%)
ANO (populist, center-right)  7% (+7%)
USVIT (populist, center-left)  5,5% (+5,5%)
SPOZ (Social Democrat)  5,5% (+1,5%)
SZ (Greens, center)  5% (+2,5%)
KDU-CSL (Christian Democrat, center)  4,5% (0,0%)
DSSS (far-right)  2% (+1%)

(with the chart  -  pbs.twimg.com/media/BTvbVQfIMAAz1al.jpg:large )

Eight parties are above the threshold! The main surprises for me are the great result of the Green Party (they usually had 2-3% in the polls + they have a several problems now) and the bad result for the Christian Democrats (it looked that they are gaining more).
People probably forget the Public Affairs - the personal business project of millionaire Vit Barta (who corrupted his own party members btw) and want to vote the new, unverified parties again (ANO, USVIT).

The sample is 783 people, the margin of error is +- 1-3%.

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Can somone give more information regarding ANO and USVIT? As I understand they are both new parties and populist. As I have understand USVIT has some former Public Affairs people inte the party (also populists).

ok

ANO

ANO is party of billionaire of Slovak descent Andrej Babis, second wealthiest man in Czech Republic, enterpriser in agriculture, second biggest private employer. All that starts when Andrej Babis "get angry" (his own words) and paid an newspapers advertisement mobilizing people against "corruption and badly working state". Andrej Babis wanted to be just a sponsor of ANO movement at first, when he couldn't found any person for leading, he decided to be Chairman by himself.

When he recruited a enough people, the party have a first congress. A few weeks after the leadership was elected, there was a rebellion in the party against Andrej Babis. A coup was unsuccessful and all rebells leave the party. A ex-vice chairman said that Andrej Babis is behaving like a dictator and the party is his personal business project. Babis defended himself that the rebells wanted to "hijack the party".

It was a lesson for Andrej Babis. Now he is orienting to the celebrities for the main party posts and is harder to be accepted to the party. At this time the party have 1000 members and 5000 people is waiting to be checked.

ANO is gaining now. It is possible they get above the threshold (bookmaker odds - 1.15). The main problem could be a controversial past of Andrej Babis. Before the 1989 revolution he was a merchant in state owned company. That was a pretty prestige position in that time, a person must be absolutely loyal to the ruling regime. Andrej Babis was probably more than loyal - he was an agent of state secret police too. He is now defending himself that he didn't sign anything ("the agent contract is fake") and did not cooperate with the secret police. Who knows, he is a contestable now.

Another cons of Andrej Babis are his Slovak accent and his ignorance of some things. For illustration - in a election meeting he was asked what he thinks about a minimum wage amount. He didn't even know, what the minimum wage is!

When I'm watching Austrian politics, I see some similarities between Andrej Babis and Frank Stronach. Both are billionaires, both founded a protest vote party, both parties are based on plus-minus personal cult of the founder, both guys are repeating still the same phrases about economy etc.


About USVIT party I will write something tomorrow.

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Is Babis only the Czech version of Stronach, or also a bit like Berlusconi? Well-connected part of the old regime turned wealthy businessman - there is more than just one alarm bell ringing...

Without involvement into communist regime he couldn't be part of state owned company management and he couldn't (or hardly could) participate in privatization of this company. He himself said that the Communist Party membership was needed.

There is another connection between Babis and Berlusconi - he is building his own medial empire. He bought two most influential newspapers in Czech Republic (one with the biggest circulation, another with the biggest moral credit). There are rumors that he want buy a television channel now.

And there are speculation, why is he doing this. Some people says that he want to ecological fuel subvention to continue (he made a bunch of money on it).

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My guess would be that if the Social Democrats and the Communists don't win a majority, Zeman appoints his own Social Democrat protege as PM and tries to force a grand coalition with ODS.

I think absolutely the same.

When CSSD+KSCM don't have 100 seats, there is option of CSSD government with support of KSCM and SPOZ (if the have a voters enough to get to parliament). That would be disaster, the government under double control of President Zeman - non-direct from the side of CSSD and direct from the SPOZ.

The same is possible with the ODS (CSSD governement with support of ODS and SPOZ). One CSSD government with support of ODS was already there - the parties signed so called "Opposition agreement". The Prime Minister of this government was Milos Zeman. He like this form of ruling.

Two new populist parties in the parliament are opening a new opportunities for coalition too.

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About USVIT party I will write something tomorrow.

USVIT (the full name - USVIT PRIME DEMOCRACIE - "The Direct Democracy Dawn")

I already posted here something about Tomio Okamura, the party founder.  He made a millions in tourism, was spokesperson of employers in the tourist industry, became the television's favorite talking head. He was one of the stars in one TV program in Czech Television.

When he got really famous, he candidate for a senator in the Zlin region. He won with a great result. So he decided he will candidate in presidential elections. He had problem with collected signs - he had signs from people who died a years ago - and was disqualified. He don't give up and he want to candidate in the parliamentary elections with his own movement.

His election program is: referendums, removability of politicians, presidential system. He said that his inspiration was a book "The Dawn" by Pavel Kohout (communist in 50's, reform communist in 60's, anti-communist dissident in 70's, sh**tty writer by the way). The book is "collection of ideas by Benjamin Franklin, George Washington and Charles Montesquieu".

His movement is wide coalition - Public Affairs, Moravians, other parties deserters (predominantly ex-ODS), anti-(previous)-government demonstrators, some crazy people etc.

It will be funny to watch this movement. Probably they dissolve or discredit themselves before election.

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What is happening in the Czech republic?! Was on vacation in Prague two years ago and loved it. Could not imagine that this stable democracy with a stable two party system would turn into a joke?!

Czech politics is in long-term crisis, almost every Prime Minister after the year 2002 had some kind of scandal, disloyalty of party members is broad phenomenon. Czech sociologist Jan Herzman said in one interview this year that "There is lack of trust in party system between the people." This is opening the doors for movements and parties, which have programs built on rejecting the parties at all, on anti-politics. The ideal illustration for the politics, which is dissing the politics, is the ANO party billboard slogan - "We are not like the politicians - We are working" (img.ct24.cz/cache/291x517/article/51/5024/502330.jpg). Disgust of the politics is probably in every country, but in Czech Republic is specially deep.

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The newest pre-election poll by CVVM:

CSSD 30,5%
KSCM 19,5%
ANO 14%
TOP09 12,5%
ODS 7%
SPOZ 5,5%
KDU-CSL 4,5%

The charts and trend - novinky.cz/domaci/314219-podpora-cssd-klesa-babisovo-hnuti-se-dostalo-na-treti-pricku.html .

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KSCM look set to poll into the twenties on that trend.

That ANO figure is profoundly disappointing, but if they can drag ODS out of parliament that'd make up for it. Looks like CSSD have took a significant hit, although not enough to stop the possibility of a CSSD-KSCM coalition?

I think there is a move from CSSD to KSCM. Partially it's caused by instability of CSSD (fight for a power between Hasek and Sobotka), partially by situation in Moravskoslezky region - the important underground mine is going to be closed and CSSD don't have any stance about it. Yes, commies could have 20%.

It's surprising for me how much is the ANO party gaining. When they are such a strong, it's opening possibility of coalition with CSSD. I will look for any statement of CSSD about ANO.

In the article there is not calculated the distribution of the seats. I think CSSD+KSCM would have the seats enough, but I'm not sure.

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Latest poll (TNS Aisa for Czech Television)

CSSD 29%
ANO 13%
KSCM 11%
TOP09 9,5%
ODS 8,5%
KDU-CSL 6,5%
SPOZ 5%
USVIT 4,5%
SZ 3,5%

(ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/domaci/244831-pruzkum-pro-ct-cssd-drzi-prvenstvi-ano-odsunulo-komunisty/)

I don't know, why KSCM fall so significantly. Maybe it is caused by calming down the situation in Ostrava region - not the all miners will be fired (only half of them) and it's still a time enough to resolve it. KDU-CSL gaining and ANO stabilized at +-13%.

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It seems like both CSSD and KSCM is losing support. If they fail to get 101 seats might there be an anti CSSD alliance? If SPOZ does not get 5%, might ANO join TOP09, ODS and KDU-CSL?! Might USVIT join them or are they closer to CSSD?

ANO have conflict with TOP09 party (personal insults included), that decrease a possibility of ANO+TOP09+ODS+KDU-CSL. But after the election it will be a different situation - I don't reject idea of this coalition. Babis (the party leader-owner) would negotiate with CSSD too (he said it in one interview). The main obstruction would be the CSSD chairman Sobotka.

USVIT is closer to CSSD, I think. They are too much toxic for the open coalition - they could offer a non-formal support only.

Disaster.

Sort of. And the election campaign is enormously weak, the parties doesn't have any strong topics....

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Today I will introduce you to position of Karel Schwanzenberg in Czech politics. Karel Schwanzenberg is member of old Austrian-Hungarian aristocratic family. He was a consultant of first Czech president Vaclav Havel, then he had been minister of foreign affairs for Green Party and TOP09 (which he is founding member). He is something like mascot of TOP09 party, he is making the good opposite to bad men Miroslav Kalousek (the non-formal leader of the party, not so much popular).

Like a mascot he is the main person in every party campaign. In the presidential campaign he was stylized like "Karel is a punker".



Now he is stylized in James Bond



TOP09 campaigns are aiming to the younger voters. There is video from some pre-election meeting (street art action) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dO3GBI1Cr44 (that rap is senseless Karel Schwanzenberg adoration). And here is a very bad video with one Czech internet celebrity - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1jYhgEiWL1U - interview in Czenglish (poor English spoken by Czech native).

It is not respectful for this old aristocrat. TOP09 is openly "using" him for their campaign.

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The left is without majority.



the parliamentary seats projection

the poll:

CSSD 25,9
ANO 16,1
KSCM 13,3
TOP 09 11,5
ODS 8,6
Usvit 5,9
KDU-CSL 4,5
SZ 2,6
SPOZ 2,6

the polling agency: STEM/MARK.
source: http://www.novinky.cz/domaci/316652-obrat-levice-bez-vetsiny-ano-na-druhem-miste-a-zemanovci-mimo-hru-uvadi-pruzkum.html

bonuses:

the video of the Green Party leader Liska doing rap - https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ppcuYt198gI

the election results maps from the past years - http://data.blog.ihned.cz/c1-61020360-oranzova-modra-i-ruda-republika-podrobne-mapy-s-vysledky-voleb-1996-2010

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The poll released today - TNS Aisa

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In 2010, the polls overestimated the Social Democrats by 4-6% and the Communists by 2-3%.

TOP09 was underestimated by 5%.

Considering the fact that polls are quite bad, do you think ANO might finish 1st ?

If it will happen, I would emigrate. I think ANO is overestimated and SocDem underestimated - CSSD is making big mobilization now and amount of protest voters have some limitation (the real number for ANO party is the result of Public Affairs in 2010 - 10%, I think).

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In reaction of ANO party gaining, there rise voices for grand coalition from ODS and TOP09 (even Karel Schwanzenberg said that he would construct a government with CSSD). The Slovakian newspapers Sme found some documents, which shows Andrej Babis informing the communist secret police about his colleagues in the years before 1989. There is no reaction in Czech medias.

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If it will happen, I would emigrate.

Where would you emigrate to?

To Vienna, traditional Czech place to emigrate to. Still big Czech community there, great standard of living, interesting previous residents (Hitler, Stalin, Freud,...). And stable political culture, for this moment...

Or to New Zealand and breed the sheep.