2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ireland is having a referendum in late May on whether to repeal the 8th Amendment, which constitutionally protects unborn babies from abortion.  While repealing it would not instantly legalize abortion, the government plans to introduce a bill legalizing elective first-term abortions should the 8th Amendment be repealed.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Polls indicate it'll be repealed, but I'm not 100% sure. Ireland is still a very religious and socially conservative country compared to most of the West. Plus we may see a Brexit type situation too.

In fact, the authors of one of the polls said that they expect it to significantly tighten:
https://www.redcresearch.com/battle-repeal-8th/

And the pro-repeal side is expecting a close race:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/together-for-yes-campaign-expects-result-of-abortion-referendum-will-be-close-836421.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any updates?

A recent poll had Yes's lead down to 11 points and below 50%.  Yes probably remains a favorite, but it is tightening and there is a tendency for most undecideds on initiatives to break towards No.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm unfortunately predicting a victory for Yes, but the graphic on the last slide gives me some hope and I have heard positive things from people I know in Ireland.  Time to pray.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to a friend of mine in Ireland, results will probably start coming out between 1 and 2 PM tomorrow Irish time, which is 8-9 AM ET/ 5-6 AM PT.  Not sure why it takes so long.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This world is so messed up.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

I have been following numerous pro-life campaign Facebook pages and none of them have been negative.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That is actually one of the questions that will be asked following the result if this is anything close to true: the No campaign moved in a very... distasteful way towards the end of the campaign and if that exit poll is anything close to the result you would have to think that it demonstrates that the No campaign strategy heavily backfired.  It also demonstrates the power of a positive message in a referendum campaign; in the general area the referendum campaigns that won or did significantly better than they were expected to have been the ones that managed to broadly campaign in a positive light; while those who went negative all of the time tended to struggle.

I still don't believe that it will break the 61% that the Marriage referendum got but even that would be an impressively large figure and demonstrates the overwhelming change that has happened in the country - remember that its only been twenty years since Divorce was legalised and that was as close a referendum as you could get.

I have been following numerous pro-life campaign Facebook pages and none of them have been negative.

I don't see what random Facebook pages have to go with the official No campaign?

"Pro-Life Campaign Ireland" is one of them, as well as SaveThe8th, the Students Against Repeal, and the LoveBoth Project.  American non-profit Let Them Live has been in Ireland and has been great as well.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Vote by Exit Poll-

Irish Times: 68/32% YES

B&A: 68/32% YES

RTE: 69/31% YES

I wonder why so many more people voted Yes for abortion than Yes for gay marriage...

My guess is that the people who want it to be legal for rape but for no other reason are a pretty strong number and voted Yes.  I don't think a constitutional amendment directly legalizing abortion on-demand, even if just for the first term, would have passed.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

From a Jas post elsewhere:

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I would imagine that well over 70% of Americans back abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks...

Thanks for the info. I did a little digging and it's about 2/3 in favour in the first trimester (which is about 12 weeks). So the Irish are still somewhat more pro-life than the Americans.

American polling is often inconsistent and contradictory.  For instance, most Americans will say that abortion for convenience/financial reason should be illegal, but then they will say something else depending on how the question is phrased.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I've never understood why people follow a religion and then don't pay attention to the teachings of the religion they follow.  But I'm not Catholic.

Anyway, I wonder how the protestants voted.

Well, the one place that voted No was the most Protestant part of the country

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

All of that is completely false.

[citation needed]

Pew research

% of people saying Abortion should be Legal in all/most cases

18-29: 65%

30-49: 59%

50-64: 53%

65+: 53%

Other polls have come up with very different results (and most other polls have illegal in all/most ahead of legal in all/most):

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/05/02/this_is_the_pro-life_generation_136947.html

Though, some articles suggest that we are losing ground with young voters over the last 2-3 years, and unfortunately I think part of that is due to Trump's style (not any policy position, just his style).

EDIT: This is the most extensive poll I have seen on young voters' stances on abortion, and it found that they would back a ban on abortion with the three exceptions 53-42 and would back a ban after the first trimester 63-32. https://www.scribd.com/document/317094271/POLLING-Barna-For-Public-Release