The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I find it amusing he claimed to be 39. Reminds me of the lady at my job in college who jokingly claimed to be "39 and some months." Guess it's not just women who lie about their ages like that at that point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Green line going to the Tea Party wouldn't shock me at all. The Greens have taken right-wing funding and support all the time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I haven't really been following this race.  What ballot lines are each candidate running on?

Hochul has D/WF, Corwin has R/Cons/IP, Jack Davis is on his own specially-made "Tea Party" ticket.

Jack Davis is a joke here.  Even the tea party has bashed him.  The 26th district is historically conservative and I live but a few miles away from it.  Bunch of towns, rural areas, and a large white population.  That entire Lockport-North Tonawanda area has a large Republican population.  Western New Yorkers are used to scandals in the state so, not sure how much that will play into it.

Davis' support will go down, he'll get at least 15% on election day, if not closer to 20%. I'm amazed most polls continue to show him...competitive. He really is a joke, but he has this really strange core group of supporters who refuse to abandon him.

If Hochul continues to hammer Corwin, keep the focus on her supporting the Ryan budget/changes to Medicare, it'll be a toss-up come election day. And if not a toss up, then at least give Hochul a 30-40% chance of winning. Davis is the wild card here, and I honestly have no idea where the hell his support is coming from.

Whoa man. It's awesome to see you back.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

No, I live in Providence now, so still no suburbs for me either, but my personality hasn't changed.  I'm not sure I ever created a single poll in the 5500 posts or so I racked up.

Based on the general statistics, you've made 9.

I'm actually not too different from your standard urban liberal now. And I'm sure you're not surprised to know I now live in Minneapolis, near Uptown.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Impressive, but for Hochul to win, Davis is probably going to have to get closer to 30%. I doubt she'll be able to do much better than 35%.

If she does happen to win, it will be possible to give her a winnable district for 2012 by putting Slaughter's part of Erie County into the district. You can carve out two 54-44 Obama districts in western NY while giving Slaughter a 58-40 Obama district that shrinks back to Monroe County. Slaughter may not like that, though.

Meh, she's one of those people that seriously just need to retire and probably will in a term or two anyway. It'll be amazing if she manages to survive the decade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/05/12/starting_trouble_in_ny-26.html

If this really turns out to have been the way it looks in this short video, this could be Jack Davis' 'macaca moment'.

Sure didn't help Bob Etheridge, that's for sure.

Yeah, but Davis smacked down a Librul!!!

Apparently it was Corwin's Chief of Staff behind the camera.

Not sure when CoS's started spending their time being trackers though.

Wasn't Rand Paul's COS playing the role of stalker right after the primary in KY last spring?

It's not a campaign worker, it's her Assembly office Chief of Staff.

So illegal then?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It wouldn't be too hard to give Slaughter a solely Rochester based district, and Hochul and Higgins just splitting Buffalo.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Slaughter already had a Rochester-based district prior to 2000 and she's like 1000 years old anyway. I just drew what a likely Rochester-based seat would look like and it's 58.5% Obama. There is only one district in the country with a higher Obama percentage held by a Republican (IL-10), and that's in Obama's home state where he obviously overperformed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also, we have an interesting reverse age gap here, as Corwin is creaming Hochul 2:1 with young voters but is losing Olds by 15.  This is probably just a bad sample, as Young voters are across-the-board more Republican in this poll, with 60% disapproving of Obama versus 47% of their elders.

Are you in college? If so you seriously need to take a class on polling, at least one that focuses on margin of error.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually what I find most interesting is Corwin's vs. Hochul's favorables. Those numbers are simply brutal for Corwin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In regards to the redistricting talk, I should note that the earmuffs are leaving no matter what, the main reason for it wasn't to shore up Slaughter who was never in danger, but the old Republican Rep from Buffalo Jack Quinn. His old seat was over 59% Gore, the earmuffs removed the black part of Buffalo and cut it down to about 54% Gore. In fact of the trio of Slaughter, (retired in 2002 due to redistricting) Democrat John LaFalce and Quinn who represented the region from Rochester to Buffalo, Quinn had by far the strongest Gore district. But even the post-redistricting seat was still too Dem to be held without Quinn. So there's really no one who'd be pushing to keep the earmuffs. Higgins and Hochul might have to have an interesting talk though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hochul - 47
Corwin - 45
Davis - 7

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For some reason I forgot about this as soon as I went to work (maybe because I got a parking ticket? Maybe because I overslept and had to leave as soon as I woke up?) and never bothered to check it.

Oh well. Good news.