tepoe
Rookie
Posts: 19
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« on: December 18, 2019, 01:12:03 PM » |
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The consistency of the level of support is mostly the state of the economy directly (stability and growth is valued after decades of turmoil) and indirectly (tranfers to the middle class). Fidesz will only go below 2 million voters at a general election if this factor changes significantly.
I would put the state of the opposition to 2nd place: our mixed election system gives to goverment to the winner of the FPTB individual districts. Fidesz even changed the election rules, campaign financing rules and even the parliamentary law to strenghten this effect. Since the socialists eorked themselves down to a small party, we have a major party minus from a two-party system. Cooperation is must for the underfounded opposition now, that is why the credentials of Jobbik were off the table. FYI: the naziest part of Jobbik is now Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) with their paramilitary groups and a healthy presence in Fidesz-friendly media.
The third factor is the lack of level playing field, as it was mentioned above (the impartiality of publoc media, goverment paid billboard campaigns, centralised 'private' media, etc.). But I don't think it is decisive, but it obviously makes things easier for Fidesz.
Local electuons this October showed that non-Fidesz voters are open to vote for very broad opposition coalitions, so there is skme chance, that 2022 might even be compatitive. But it depeends on the changes of these factors.
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