The absentee/early vote thread

[NOVA Green]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

That's way better than I thought we'd look at this point. Most of the "Hispanic surge" is non-Cuban voters who will go 3-1 Democratic. It looks like the final Florida electorate will be under 65% white when it is all said and done which means Clinton has a much better than even chance to win. If we can get African-American turnout back to 13%, with the expanded Hispanic turnout, Florida is blue

We need to summon Arch to talk about the "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida and maybe take that awesome time-scale image that he has of out-migration from the Island over the past four decades, with maybe another awesome image that shows the growth of Puerto Rican populations in Florida.

Oh, we are ANGRY and likely to vote by a bit more than 3-1 against Trump. And yes, if unaccounted for, the polls are missing a huge chunk of new Puerto Rican voters in the state who are casting their votes for the first time. Here is the image you referenced:



Then we can cross-reference that population loss with Hispanic population growth in FL by county in recent years.



I would point out that a good chunk of that population movement is to the Orlando and Tampa city areas with some other counties to the side near Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Looking at the FL map above, you can extrapolate the changes that might have been missed.

Hmmm... that's really interesting, especially the surge in Latinos in the Jacksonville area, as well as the Florida panhandle.

Now, Orlando has long been on the radar with changing demographics and massive growth of the Puerto Ricano Comunidad, as well as Tampa area, but was quite surprised to see the map in parts of North Florida in terms of an overall percentage of the Latino population.

So, has there been a major increase in Puerto Ricans moving into Jacksonville & the Panhandle, or is more a factor of counties with smaller Latino populations increasing at greater % numbers than many other counties in the state?

Am also curious about how the Florida map matches with increased voter registration and EV numbers in heavily Latino counties in the state, just like some of the interesting numbers out of Tejas....

[HillOfANight]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/index.html

Arizona
- Republicans up 4% now, vs 10% in 2012 at this point.

Colorado
- Democrats up 2.4%, vs GOP 2.8% margin in 2012.
- The Dem advantage has been shrinking recently though.

Florida
- GOP up 8.8K, compared to in 2008, when Dems lead by 50K.
- Black vote down to 12% from 15%
- Latino up from 9.4% in 2008 to 14% today

Georgia
- Black vote at 31% now, vs 36% in 2012
- It's been creeping up, but needs to be much higher

Iowa
- Democrats led by 58,000 votes, an edge of nearly 12%, at this point in 2012.
- Today, they are up by nearly 42,000, or 9.3%.
- That's a drop in the Democratic lead of about 5 points over the last week.

Nevada
 - Democrats are 7.5 points ahead of Republicans, roughly where they were in 2012. And the Democratic lead has grown in recent days.

North Carolina

- For the first time this cycle, Democrats are ahead by more than 200,000 early votes, and they have a 13.4-percentage-point lead over Republicans.
- But that's still off the party's 2012 pace in a state Romney narrowly won: Four years ago, Democrats were up by 292,000 votes at this stage, or 17.9 points.
- The black vote is also down in the Tar Heel State. At this point in 2012, the electorate was 67% white and 28% black. Today, it is 73% white and 23% black.

Ohio
- The GOP has an edge over Democrats of 4.7% now, while Democrats held a very slight lead at this stage in 2008.

[fldemfunds]

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%).

Are you sure about Florida? I read Democrats cast close to 250,000 more ballots than Republicans in 2012 while currently we have a Republican edge there.

There was a massive sorting affect in Florida this cycle because of Trump. About 300,000 to 400,000 people switched to GOP to vote in the primary. (Source: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states). However, approximately 3/4 of new registrations have been non-white voters since August, and half have been non-white since 2012. (Source: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/increase-in-minority-voters-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717)

The thing with those people who switched from Democrat to Republican is THAT THEY WERE NOT VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS. They hadn't since 1964 (maybe Carter). They weren't Democrats. So even though Democrats would constantly go into election day with a 4-6% lead in turnout according to registration, it was closer to 1% actual votes cast.

But if you look at who has registered (and turned out) among new registrants, whether Democrat or NPA, they are largely either young or Hispanic and lean Democrat. So while the turnout by registration has leveled off for Democrats, when you include NPAs into consideration, Democrats have added probably 5-6% of cushion on their margin from 2012.

Where is the specific quote of 300-400k switching?

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/15/the-last-word-on-voter-registration-numbers-in-florida/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Daniel Smith finds that the big Dem drop is mostly old Dems dying or being inactive. There are some switchers, but not a huge amount.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-voter-registration-gains-probably-arent-gains-at-all/

60% of the approximately 300k narrowing is attributable to party switching. I don't think analysis includes NPA to GOP. My estimate of 300k is probably on the higher end, it is probably closer to 200-250k.

Another estimate: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/sfl-by-the-numbers-the-trump-effect-in-florida-20160325-htmlstory.html

38 out of every 10,000 (and there were approximately 5 million dems) puts it at roughly 200k.

Even given this slightly lower number, my substantive point still stands. 200k voters left the party for our opposing major party (representing most of the registration-turnout gap from 2012). NPA registration has heavily skewed Democratic. Given these two factors, two things are true: 1) partisan turnout is significantly more reflective of the actual vote in Florida, and 2) NPA votes are probably breaking to Hillary by a pretty decent margin (my guess is 55-45 on the slightly conservative side).

When you combine these two realities, there's not much stopping you from concluding that HRC's lead is probably around 5% right now with the turnout numbers being what they are

[Ozymandias]

Consider this the *VERY* early vote for 2032

southpaw ‏@nycsouthpaw  28m28 minutes ago
Scholastic poll of 153,000 K-12 students (Clinton 52% - Trump 35%) suggests, perhaps, the GOP's future predicament. http://election.scholastic.com/vote/

[riceowl]

dat Louisiana Purchase doe

[Virginiá]

Consider this the *VERY* early vote for 2032

southpaw ‏@nycsouthpaw  28m28 minutes ago
Scholastic poll of 153,000 K-12 students (Clinton 52% - Trump 35%) suggests, perhaps, the GOP's future predicament. http://election.scholastic.com/vote/

...

Actually, based on the voting patterns of young adult Millennials over the past 15~ years, that looks pretty accurate (save for Idaho & Utah)

[IceSpear]

I see the Racist WV Hicks have raised Racist WV Hicklings!

[dspNY]

27,741 people voted early in Broward County today, an increase of 2,586 from yesterday. Every little bit helps.

In Duval County, Republicans returned 585 more ballots than Democrats (combined VBM and in-person). The party breakdown in Duval is 43.5% R, 42.0% D (which I think is OK for us, Duval leans GOP)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any sign that the AA vote is beginning to catch up? I remember seeing that the % had increased in FL and NC, but can anyone say how much and if it's enough to limit the damage there?

[psychprofessor]

Steve Schale: Hillsborough had big day of VBM + EV. Over 25k.  Biggest day since mid-week last week

[Gamgubben]

So, to confirm where we are at the moment, CO and NV are looking really good, and FL is looking quite good?

[IceSpear]

So, to confirm where we are at the moment, CO and NV are looking really good, and FL is looking quite good?

CO/NV look good for Dems, FL/NC can be spun in either direction, which probably means they're very close.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

[dspNY]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

Turnout was lower on the Tuesday before the election in 2012 than it is today

[dspNY]

Computer models say Clinton is 90K ahead of Trump in FL, but there is a chance for Trump to make up the lost ground and win

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/computer-model-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-nearly-90000-votes/2300967

[alomas]

Advantage Trump - NC, OH, IA, FL, AZ*
Advantage Clinton - CO, NV

* Clinton does better than Obama in AZ but not good enough to flip the state.

[Speed of Sound]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

It amuses him. He tells it a lot straighter in his blogs or when asked by a journo. He's really not worth following during the day.

[dspNY]

Advantage Trump - NC, OH, IA, FL, AZ*
Advantage Clinton - CO, NV

* Clinton does better than Obama in AZ but not good enough to flip the state.

After looking at the demographic breakdown of the Florida early vote and that computer model, Florida is no better than a tossup for Trump

[psychprofessor]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

By 6pm the same amt of people had voted - and that was a "bad" day for Dems yesterday. He mentioned that at the same point 4 years ago he expected today's numbers to be worse for Dems today but I guess they aren't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

By 6pm the same amt of people had voted - and that was a "bad" day for Dems yesterday. He mentioned that at the same point 4 years ago he expected today's numbers to be worse for Dems today but I guess they aren't.

So the bottom line is that Dems are outperforming expectation?

[Dr. Arch]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

By 6pm the same amt of people had voted - and that was a "bad" day for Dems yesterday. He mentioned that at the same point 4 years ago he expected today's numbers to be worse for Dems today but I guess they aren't.

So the bottom line is that Dems are outperforming expectation?

Yes

[psychprofessor]

Advantage Trump - NC, OH, IA, FL, AZ*
Advantage Clinton - CO, NV

* Clinton does better than Obama in AZ but not good enough to flip the state.

After looking at the demographic breakdown of the Florida early vote and that computer model, Florida is no better than a tossup for Trump

Florida and NC are open to interpretation..my opinion is that Hillary is slightly ahead in FL and growing.

I would add advantage Hillary for WI and VA as well.

[Xing]

I wouldn't say that Trump has the advantage in IA, so much as it looks like he's overperforming Romney. Remember that Obama won by 5.8%, so a slight improvement for Trump isn't going to be enough to flip it. FL looks very ambiguous right now.

[QE]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

By 6pm the same amt of people had voted - and that was a "bad" day for Dems yesterday. He mentioned that at the same point 4 years ago he expected today's numbers to be worse for Dems today but I guess they aren't.

So the bottom line is that Dems are outperforming expectation?

Yes

Ralston is the best for NV politics, but once you get wind of his intentional fear mongering for his own amusement, it gets old really fast.