The absentee/early vote thread

[Mehmentum]

About turnout - do not forget that the number of people living in US has increased by 10 million since 2012

Florida looking good for Trump. In 2012 Democrats beat Republicans by 3 points in early voting while this year R are actually edging D so far. Romney reduced the margin by 2 points on election day.

Similar with North Carolina. Democrats won EV 2:1 in 2012 while this year their advantage is 3-4 points less. A bigger turnout may sound good and "reduce" the deficit but they are reports that black turnout has dropped a few points.

A.) You can't compare Florida to 2012 since early voting laws have changed since then.  2008 had a similar voting period to 2016, and that compares favorably for the Democrats, if I remember correctly.

B.) Both Florida and North Carolina have had a rush of Dixiecrats (straight ticket Republicans who are still registered as Democrats), who've finally gotten around to changing their party registration.  So even though Democrats are doing slightly worse, this could be entirely illusory.

[henster]

So Hillary is personally headed to Detroit not a surrogate on Fri. for EV rally.

[alomas]

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%).

Are you sure about Florida? I read Democrats cast close to 250,000 more ballots than Republicans in 2012 while currently we have a Republican edge there.

[Ozymandias]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

[QE]

So Hillary is personally headed to Detroit not a surrogate on Fri. for EV rally.

She's playing prevent defense. This state is being swarmed by Trump and his ilk all week. Ivanka, Eric and Donald Jr. are all making stops here. Trump himself was just here yesterday. I think they know PA is unlikely to flip, so they need a game-changer in MI, WI, CO or VA.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

Now that is great news for Clinton! I can't see her lose the state if Hispanics are up that much.

[HillOfANight]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

Reassuring perspective given the Black turnout drop...

I did the math, assume Whites gave Ds 35% each year, Blacks 95% to Obama, 90% to Clinton (conservative worst case), 60% Hispanics to Obama, and 70% Hispanics to Clinton...

Overall, with that, Clinton on track with Obama 2012 at worst.

[Yank2133]

So Hillary is personally headed to Detroit not a surrogate on Fri. for EV rally.

She's playing prevent defense. This state is being swarmed by Trump and his ilk all week. Ivanka, Eric and Donald Jr. are all making stops here. Trump himself was just here yesterday. I think they know PA is unlikely to flip, so they need a game-changer in MI, WI, CO or VA.

That and they need to rally AA voters, they are slagging a bit with them.

[Storebought]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

Now that is great news for Clinton! I can't see her lose the state if Hispanics are up that much.

Hispanic voters aren't as partisan Democrat as black voters.

[The Other Castro]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

Now that is great news for Clinton! I can't see her lose the state if Hispanics are up that much.

Hispanic voters aren't as partisan Democrat as black voters.

They're still getting pretty partisan this cycle, if Latino-specific polls are to be believed.

[Maxwell]

I think a 40% bump in Hispanics will likely make up for a 10% drop in blacks, but obviously we won't know that until election day.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

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[fldemfunds]

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%).

Are you sure about Florida? I read Democrats cast close to 250,000 more ballots than Republicans in 2012 while currently we have a Republican edge there.

There was a massive sorting affect in Florida this cycle because of Trump. About 300,000 to 400,000 people switched to GOP to vote in the primary. (Source: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states). However, approximately 3/4 of new registrations have been non-white voters since August, and half have been non-white since 2012. (Source: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/increase-in-minority-voters-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717)

The thing with those people who switched from Democrat to Republican is THAT THEY WERE NOT VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS. They hadn't since 1964 (maybe Carter). They weren't Democrats. So even though Democrats would constantly go into election day with a 4-6% lead in turnout according to registration, it was closer to 1% actual votes cast.

But if you look at who has registered (and turned out) among new registrants, whether Democrat or NPA, they are largely either young or Hispanic and lean Democrat. So while the turnout by registration has leveled off for Democrats, when you include NPAs into consideration, Democrats have added probably 5-6% of cushion on their margin from 2012.

[NOVA Green]

Hi all, new poster here.

Looking good for HRC as far as I can see, hope she wins.

Welcome to the forum!!!!

Looking forward to seeing your contributions to the best US election forum on the internet, but be warned, sometimes we need to have tough skins around here, since occasionally people tend to get a bit worked up.

[dspNY]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

That's way better than I thought we'd look at this point. Most of the "Hispanic surge" is non-Cuban voters who will go 3-1 Democratic. It looks like the final Florida electorate will be under 65% white when it is all said and done which means Clinton has a much better than even chance to win. If we can get African-American turnout back to 13%, with the expanded Hispanic turnout, Florida is blue

[HillOfANight]

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%).

Are you sure about Florida? I read Democrats cast close to 250,000 more ballots than Republicans in 2012 while currently we have a Republican edge there.

There was a massive sorting affect in Florida this cycle because of Trump. About 300,000 to 400,000 people switched to GOP to vote in the primary. (Source: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states). However, approximately 3/4 of new registrations have been non-white voters since August, and half have been non-white since 2012. (Source: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/increase-in-minority-voters-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717)

The thing with those people who switched from Democrat to Republican is THAT THEY WERE NOT VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS. They hadn't since 1964 (maybe Carter). They weren't Democrats. So even though Democrats would constantly go into election day with a 4-6% lead in turnout according to registration, it was closer to 1% actual votes cast.

But if you look at who has registered (and turned out) among new registrants, whether Democrat or NPA, they are largely either young or Hispanic and lean Democrat. So while the turnout by registration has leveled off for Democrats, when you include NPAs into consideration, Democrats have added probably 5-6% of cushion on their margin from 2012.

Where is the specific quote of 300-400k switching?

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/15/the-last-word-on-voter-registration-numbers-in-florida/

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Daniel Smith finds that the big Dem drop is mostly old Dems dying or being inactive. There are some switchers, but not a huge amount.

[NOVA Green]

Bradd Jaffy ‏@BraddJaffy  3h3 hours ago
In nearly every battleground state, early voting in 2016 is higher than it was at a similar point in 2012, except for Iowa

Wow!

Thanks for sharing Ozy (If I may call you that),

What's really crazy is this indicates that Floridians are early voting at 2x the numbers from 2012.

Regardless of how this crazy elections turns out, and personally can't wait for this debacle to be over, it is a good time for democracy when you see high turnout elections regardless of the final results.

[Ozymandias]

Wow!

Thanks for sharing Ozy (If I may call you that)

By all means!

What's really crazy is this indicates that Floridians are early voting at 2x the numbers from 2012.

Think that's both because:

(1) Obama did so well in FL early voting in 2008 that Reps cut back days AND hours in 2012, which led to huge lines, causing an outcry, resulting in restoration of 2008-like early voting in 2016

(2) Florida making their vote-by-mail requests easier starting in 2014 by letting you check a box on the ballot so that you could receive the next absentee ballot automatically

[NOVA Green]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

That's way better than I thought we'd look at this point. Most of the "Hispanic surge" is non-Cuban voters who will go 3-1 Democratic. It looks like the final Florida electorate will be under 65% white when it is all said and done which means Clinton has a much better than even chance to win. If we can get African-American turnout back to 13%, with the expanded Hispanic turnout, Florida is blue

We need to summon Arch to talk about the "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida and maybe take that awesome time-scale image that he has of out-migration from the Island over the past four decades, with maybe another awesome image that shows the growth of Puerto Rican populations in Florida.

[BoAtlantis]

Whether Nate Silver wants to be extra cautious so that we "Don't read too much into the early voting", it does correlate highly with the result.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/01/early-voters-predict-who-wins-this-is-good-news-for-democrats/

[Virginiá]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

I'll be joining them this weekend.

Doing the same with my partner in WI.

I've been pulling shifts almost every day now for over a week and a half. I think I've reminded at least 20 - 25 people with absentee ballots to send them in, though whether or not they did is anyone's guess.

Lack of enthusiasm in the local African American neighborhoods is palpable, though.

[Dr. Arch]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

That's way better than I thought we'd look at this point. Most of the "Hispanic surge" is non-Cuban voters who will go 3-1 Democratic. It looks like the final Florida electorate will be under 65% white when it is all said and done which means Clinton has a much better than even chance to win. If we can get African-American turnout back to 13%, with the expanded Hispanic turnout, Florida is blue

We need to summon Arch to talk about the "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida and maybe take that awesome time-scale image that he has of out-migration from the Island over the past four decades, with maybe another awesome image that shows the growth of Puerto Rican populations in Florida.

Oh, we are ANGRY and likely to vote by a bit more than 3-1 against Trump. And yes, if unaccounted for, the polls are missing a huge chunk of new Puerto Rican voters in the state who are casting their votes for the first time. Here is the image you referenced:



Then we can cross-reference that population loss with Hispanic population growth in FL by county in recent years.



I would point out that a good chunk of that population movement is to the Orlando and Tampa city areas with some other counties to the side near Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Looking at the FL map above, you can extrapolate the changes that might have been missed.

[dspNY]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

I'll be joining them this weekend.

Doing the same with my partner in WI.

I've been pulling shifts almost every day now for over a week and a half. I think I've reminded at least 20 - 25 people with absentee ballots to send them in, though whether or not they did is anyone's guess.

Lack of enthusiasm in the local African American neighborhoods is palpable, though.

Compared to Obama (which is OK) or compared to Gore/Kerry (which is not OK)

[Virginiá]

Compared to Obama (which is OK) or compared to Gore/Kerry (which is not OK)

I'm not sure. This is my first election that I've canvassed in. It's not that they aren't voting - it seems like all the older (30 - 35+) African Americans I've talked to are definitely voting.. it's the younger ones. I have noticed a steep decline in interest between knocking on a middle+ age black voter's door and a <30 door. It doesn't seem like they are against Hillary, but they just seem really turned off to the whole thing. However, most of them said they were going to vote, but it sounded to me like a 50/50 or maybe 60/40 chance that they vote as opposed to 80/20 for the older folks.


@Arch: aren't many non-Cuban hispanics registered as independent/non-affiliated? I haven't kept track of those statistics but as I understand it, many Puerto Ricans have not associated with either party officially but still lean heavily Democratic. Combined with the Dem-Rep registration changes, that may mean things are rosier for Democrats in FL than early voting stats would suggest. Especially since we're going to have a good deal more Cubans voting for Clinton this year.

[BoAtlantis]

Early voting update from CNN, mostly stuff we know.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/index.html