The absentee/early vote thread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

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[The Other Castro]

Over 27 Million people have now voted, according to electproject.org

[swf541]

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He needs alot more than that

[SunSt0rm]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

Turnout today was lower in 2012 than on monday in 2012

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There, 538

[Gamgubben]

Hi all, new poster here.

Looking good for HRC as far as I can see, hope she wins.

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballot stats, 11/1

Ballots requested:

DEM: 252,589
GOP: 202,634
IND: 136,250
Other: 1,962

Ballots cast:

DEM: 205,540
GOP: 162,467
IND: 102,623
Other: 1,455

Dem ballot request lead stays around 50K and their overall vote lead is 43K. I'd say a little below par

[swf541]

Hi all, new poster here.

Looking good for HRC as far as I can see, hope she wins.

Nice to see a new poster and welcome, and i hope she wins too.

[Dr. Arch]

Hi all, new poster here.

Looking good for HRC as far as I can see, hope she wins.

Welcome! Same. Make sure to get everyone out to vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

crazry how lazy those dems are in IA/FL with returning those requested ballots.

[swf541]

crazry how lazy those dems are in IA/FL with returning those requested ballots.

Its gotten quite ridiculous

[Ozymandias]

Bradd Jaffy ‏@BraddJaffy  3h3 hours ago
In nearly every battleground state, early voting in 2016 is higher than it was at a similar point in 2012, except for Iowa

[Ozymandias]

Oct. 30, 2012—13,519,140 votes had been cast 1 week till Election Day

Nov. 1, 2016—26,236,246 votes have been cast 1 week till Election Day




"One Week Before Election Day, Early Voting Is Nearly Twice as High as 2012"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/fbi-2016-election-confidence-deficit-n676171

[OneJ]

Oct. 30, 2012—13,519,140 votes had been cast 1 week till Election Day

Nov. 1, 2016—26,236,246 votes have been cast 1 week till Election Day




"One Week Before Election Day, Early Voting Is Nearly Twice as High as 2012"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/fbi-2016-election-confidence-deficit-n676171

Awesome! I love seeing a high turnout election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A twofold increase? Wow. This is big.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

Turnout today was lower in 2012 than on monday in 2012

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

What the hell does that even mean?

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  3m3 minutes ago
Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing. 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago
African American share was like 8 when in-person early voting started. 2/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago
FL Hispanics are now closing in on being 14% of the electorate, driven by huge numbers of low propensity Hispanic Dems/NPA 3/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  22s23 seconds ago
51% of Hispanic Dems are either first time or 1 of 3 voters, and 57% of Hispanic NPAs. There is definitely a Hispanic surge happening. 4/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  38s38 seconds ago
Moreover, now almost 31% of all Dems voted are "low propensity" compared to about 25% of GOP, in real people, a 90K edge 5/

[dspNY]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  3m3 minutes ago
Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing. 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago
African American share was like 8 when in-person early voting started. 2/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago
FL Hispanics are now closing in on being 14% of the electorate, driven by huge numbers of low propensity Hispanic Dems/NPA 3/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  22s23 seconds ago
51% of Hispanic Dems are either first time or 1 of 3 voters, and 57% of Hispanic NPAs. There is definitely a Hispanic surge happening. 4/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  38s38 seconds ago
Moreover, now almost 31% of all Dems voted are "low propensity" compared to about 25% of GOP, in real people, a 90K edge 5/

African Americans are 13% of the Florida electorate. If they can get back to that number, we are OK in FL

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  45s45 seconds ago
There is still a lot of work to do. There almost 80K more Democrats with VBM ballots on their couches than GOP. [6]/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  22s22 seconds ago
And more of our VBM ballot holders are "low propensity" 7/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago
But there are as many if not more Dems who voted in 2012 yet to vote than Republicans. And more Dems with VBM than Republicans... 8/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  22s23 seconds ago
And more "low propensity" Dems voting than GOP...and the electorate is trending more diverse than 2012... 9/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  5s5 seconds ago
In other words, Dems, Florida is right there.  Now go to @HillaryforFL & help her get it across the line.  She wins her[e], and it is over. 10/

[The Other Castro]

Oct. 30, 2012—13,519,140 votes had been cast 1 week till Election Day

Nov. 1, 2016—26,236,246 votes have been cast 1 week till Election Day




"One Week Before Election Day, Early Voting Is Nearly Twice as High as 2012"

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/fbi-2016-election-confidence-deficit-n676171

Wait so over 32 million ballots were cast in the last week of 2012? That seems super high.

[QE]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

[izixs]

If those numbers are right, then turnout is already about half of the total vote from 2004 in Florida and not far behind 2008 and 2012.

[alomas]

About turnout - do not forget that the number of people living in US has increased by 10 million since 2012

Florida looking good for Trump. In 2012 Democrats beat Republicans by 3 points in early voting while this year R are actually edging D so far. Romney reduced the margin by 2 points on election day.

Similar with North Carolina. Democrats won EV 2:1 in 2012 while this year their advantage is 3-4 points less. A bigger turnout may sound good and "reduce" the deficit but they are reports that black turnout has dropped a few points.

Arizona is also looking favourably for Trump. I read he is 5 points ahead in EV now (it was 3.5 earlier). Yes, it is behind their 2012 total but that gives him a 5 point with probably 70+% already cast. Obama barely gained anything on election day.

I don't know about Nevada but it looks good for Clinton as she is doing similar to 2012 (Obama won the state by almost 7 points). I don't know about the drop-off this week but so far it is trending her way.

[IceSpear]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

I'll be joining them this weekend.

[Dr. Arch]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

I'll be joining them this weekend.

Doing the same with my partner in WI.

[dspNY]

About turnout - do not forget that the number of people living in US has increased by 10 million since 2012

Florida looking good for Trump. In 2012 Democrats beat Republicans by 3 points in early voting while this year R are actually edging D so far. Romney reduced the margin by 2 points on election day.

Similar with North Carolina. Democrats won EV 2:1 in 2012 while this year their advantage is 3-4 points less. A bigger turnout may sound good and "reduce" the deficit but they are reports that black turnout has dropped a few points.

Arizona is also looking favourably for Trump. I read he is 5 points ahead in EV now (it was 3.5 earlier). Yes, it is behind their 2012 total but that gives him a 5 point with probably 70+% already cast. Obama barely gained anything on election day.

I don't know about Nevada but it looks good for Clinton as she is doing similar to 2012 (Obama won the state by almost 7 points). I don't know about the drop-off this week but so far it is trending her way.

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%). Right now FL very slightly tilts Republican but if Clinton's team gets half of those 80K VBM ballot gap reduced, she'll expand the in-person early vote lead substantially on the final weekend, and ta-da, FL is Lean D again with more fewer voters available to cast ballots.

In NC, there's been a slight uptick of African-American voters, and they'll have to pick it up significantly to win the state. Relying on college-educated whites to carry that state is a dangerous game.

Romney won the early vote by 14 points with a 10 point edge in party ID. I think the state will slip from Clinton as things go along though, even though the current extrapolation has AZ close. Still too much of a Republican lead in overall registered voters to swing it, I think

Nevada looks solid for Clinton at this point