The absentee/early vote thread

[Brittain33]

Well, the current EV results confirm what we already know:

NV and CO seem to be safe D, FL and NC seem to be lean R.

I still don't see how you can conclude that from NC given who the unaffiliated voters are, much less the public polling showing her ahead in every poll and the internal poll leaks as well.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn Nate Cohn Retweeted Greg Sargent
Key is that it's based on a poll that had Clinton up 7. If race tightened/or poll too D, these estimates will be too

I don't than really understand what then the model is? As I understand this tweet, it is just a poll, but instead of LV model, thay use actual results, right? Intresting and, actually, a good news for Trump, if it is true.

It's at least not bad news. The model is pinned entirely to Upshot's NC+7, and they have her at +5.5, which she certainly shouldn't love. That said, if she leads polls by more than 1.5 on ED, this model says she wins.

All of that said, if there's anything wrong with the underpinnings of Upshot's demos, the whole thing is worthless.

Great news for me

I gave almost up on NC, cause I thought that they used their "average" from Upshot rather than Siena poll only. Siena has a D house effect and 538 adjusted it from C+7 to C+4 (IDK, if this includes last week trend line, though). And Upshot's turnout model already shows 1.3% points swing (if I understood it right). So even if NC is lean D, it is doable for Trump

[Speed of Sound]

Well, the current EV results confirm what we already know:

NV and CO seem to be safe D, FL and NC seem to be lean R.

I still don't see how you can conclude that from NC given who the unaffiliated voters are, much less the public polling showing her ahead in every poll and the internal poll leaks as well.

I don't know how anyone can conclude anything about NC or FL right now. Between new voters, UAFs, current vs historical demos, and tight polling, I can't put the tea leaves into any legible order at all.

[Speed of Sound]

People are reading way too much into these early voting numbers. They certainly don't prove that FL looks good for Trump or that ME-02 is gone for Trump. I'd rather trust the polls, tbh.

With rare exception (CO and NV, as far as I'm concerned), I agree with you.

[Xing]

People are reading way too much into these early voting numbers. They certainly don't prove that FL looks good for Trump or that ME-02 is gone for Trump. I'd rather trust the polls, tbh.

I agree that they don't definitively prove anything, though they can give us clues about certain states, especially if compared to early voting from 2012 (NV and CO are promising for Hillary, Trump seems to be improving on Romney in IA.)

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793438423877124096
Good news from TargetSmart regarding Florida.

1) With over 4 million ballots cast, GOP registrants outnumber Dems by 16k votes cast. That's a 0.4% advantage. However...

2) Almost 700k votes have been cast by Unaffiliated voters. And those voters skew heavily Dem, with a 13% modeled partisan advantage

3) Unaffiliated EV/AV are more likely to be Hispanic (22%), or Millennial (16%), and only 65% are white

4) Tomorrow AM we will release our latest @_TargetSmart and W&M tracking survey of Florida, including full breakouts of EV/AV.

5) I've seen the initial results, and I can say they will challenge the conventional wisdom of where the race stands. Tune in tomorrow!

Interesting

This is why I've been so adamant that democrats will win by 5+.

The registration and performance gap for democrats in 2012 was about 5.5%. Roughly 450,000 reg changes to republican happened. This covers almost the entirety of the gap. At least enough to warrant saying that registration numbers are more reflective to a substantial degree than they were in 2012. So if you just stopped there, Florida looks like it did in 2012 with registration numbers becoming a more accurate indicator of performance.

However, we've also had substantial new dem and npa registrants. 2/3 of new registrants since august have been non white voters and approximately half are non white since 2012. Dems have a substantial npa advantage in Florida. You can't simply say dems need to match reg based turnout from 2012 because that is before the republican primary had a sorting effect on dixiecrats who voted gop, so reg numbers used to overstate performance, but now because of the npa surge, reg numbers drastically understate the advantage.

[Ozymandias]

Quote from Washington Post story about Florida early voting:

Josh Wilson ‏@JoshWilsonOrl  8m8 minutes ago
Josh Wilson Retweeted Washington Post
"More than 400,000 of the registered Democrats who have voted early have either not voted in the past three elections or voted just once."

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/793481246693203968

[Brittain33]

Quote from Washington Post story about Florida early voting:

Josh Wilson ‏@JoshWilsonOrl  8m8 minutes ago
Josh Wilson Retweeted Washington Post
"More than 400,000 of the registered Democrats who have voted early have either not voted in the past three elections or voted just once."

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/793481246693203968

Translated into English, means they voted in 2012 but not either of the mid-terms.

[PresidentTRUMP]

ABC/Washington Post Poll (post FBI re-investigation against Hillary)
Among those likely to vote on election day:
Trump - 50% (+11)
Clinton - 39%

If these numbers are remotely close to accurate HRC better build up a SUBSTANTIAL lead in these swing states in the battle ground areas.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am pretty sure we see a hell of tightening but imho the ABC/WAPO model is too strict regarding who is going to vote. this will be a high-turnout election.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

African American voting remains depressed (currently just 85% of 2012), that’s up 3 points from our last look on the 28th (and still rising),

white voters’ performance crept up only 2 points, to 117% of 2012, and looks (for the moment, anyway) to have flattened out at that level.

[swf541]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

African American voting remains depressed (currently just 85% of 2012), that’s up 3 points from our last look on the 28th (and still rising),

white voters’ performance crept up only 2 points, to 117% of 2012, and looks (for the moment, anyway) to have flattened out at that level.

So white increase flattening out while African Americans are moving up?  Thats good to see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's still a massive gap here. Since the White vote is up significantly, Blacks need to at least pull even in raw numbers to avoid a collapse.

[Ozymandias]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
Early vote blog updated as all numbers in:
Statewide: Dems+31K
Clark: Dems+48K
Washoe: Dems+2.3K
Rurals: GOP+19K

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

[fldemfunds]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

This.

Plus a lot of those white voters are college educated in the Research Triangle. Being white =/= being a Trump supporter necessarily.

[HillOfANight]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

How do we know this?

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

How do we know this?

was reported yesterday afaik. at least atm.

will be a narrow thing anyway.

[Ozymandias]

don't be so hostile of whites...male turnout is stable, white women are up.

How do we know this?

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  4h4 hours ago
Selected characteristics of North Carolina Unaffiliated early voters as of 11/1, with 2012 comparison



Not sure where to find % of total 2012 early voters that were women, but here are 2016 totals:

 

Looks like about 200K more female voters?

[Ozymandias]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)

[PresidentTRUMP]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)

Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

[Dr. Arch]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)


Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

You're making the false assumption that all Whites will vote for Trump in the same way they did for Romney, especially in the case for White Republican women.

[Yank2133]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)


Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

You're making the false assumption that all Whites will vote for Trump in the same way they did for Romney, especially in the case for White Republican women.

This.

He has actually doing far worse then Romney did with white voters.

[HillOfANight]

That doesn't say anything specifically about White females...

There is a huge gender gap in Georgia too, but I think it's probably an exaggerated effect of lower Black male turnout (white vote is even in Georgia, but Black females are like 2:1 Black males historically).

[HillOfANight]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)


Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

You're making the false assumption that all Whites will vote for Trump in the same way they did for Romney, especially in the case for White Republican women.

Polling seems mixed on this. New elon poll shows him up bigly among whites.