The absentee/early vote thread

[SunSt0rm]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I get that, but in NC there arent many Hispanics, the turnout of African Americans has dropped a lot too.

But I am suprised of the turnout of Republicans in NC and Florida, maybe ground game doesnt matter at all in the end.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  18m18 minutes ago
NV early voting blog updated:
Statewide Dem lead: 34K
Clark Dem lead: 47K
Washoe Dem lead: 2.5K
Rural GOP lead: 15K

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  23m23 minutes ago
North Carolina demographic characteristics of unaffiliated (no party reg) #earlyvote (as of 10/30)

But how does it compare to overall voters? Unaffiliated voter are younger, less white and more female I guess?

[SunSt0rm]

Democrats have closed the gap to less than 10k in Florida

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[BoAtlantis]

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/31/almost-4-million-votes-in-and-8-days-to-go.html

Total Ballots cast:   3,731,646
Total Vote By Mail:  1,963,274 (52.7%)
Total Early Vote:  1,768,372 (47.3%)

And by party:

Republicans:  1,509.467 (40.45%)
Democrats:  1,500,937 (40.22%)
NPA:  721,249 (19.33%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.23% (Margin look familiar)

Really quick, the outstanding mail in ballots are roughly 40D-35R-25NPA, with Democrats having 71,388 more sitting on coffee tables than do Republicans.

Hillsborough:

Democrats come out of the weekend with a roughly 16K partisan advantage, or about 6.5%.  For the Dems, this was boosted by a weekend where they won in-person early vote by 12 points.

I-4

Democrats won the weekend on the I-4 counties by about 9,000 votes (42-34-24) out of 110,000 cast, thanks to a +12.5% in-person early voting advantage.   The big thing this weekend:  a sizable jump in NPA participation: 24% of all votes this weekend coming from NPA.

Duval

Democrats narrowly won the weekend, carrying a 260 vote plurality out of this weekend’s vote-by-mail and in-person early voting.

Here is where the counties stand:

Palm Beach: Weekend: 47-27-24 DEM -- Overall: 49-29-22 DEM (+41,620)
Broward:  Weekend: 57-21-22 DEM -- Overall: 57-23-20 DEM (+112,775)
Miami-Dade: Weekend: 43-29-28 DEM -- Overall: 45-31-24 DEM (+53,518)

"Democratic voter registration advantage is about 200K less than it was in 2012, and about 350K less than it was in 2008.  This in part explains why Republicans are still “ahead” at this point.  But it is important to note that a lot of that decrease comes from voters who switched parties – most of whom hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Carter or Kennedy, and the overall electorate is much more friendly to Democrats.  This electorate could be as much as 7 points more diverse than 2008, which is the reason I think she has a small built-in edge."

But it only works if people vote. Right now, the GOP is ahead of where I thought they would be – albeit not by a lot.  It doesn’t mean Trump or Clinton is winning – nope, it means it is a dog fight for turnout. "

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's a smoke and mirror election in the south...we don't know anything.

[Virginiá]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

Looking at a lot of the data for NC, much of it does indeed look not so good for Democrats. Black turnout is down, youth turnout is down, Democratic turnout down from 2012 (slightly) while Republican turnout up (slightly).

However I'd like to add a couple things:

1. NC is among the states with a high level of movement from Democratic voter registrations -> Republican registrations. This is not because Republicans are picking up many new voters (Democrats still gaining big in that dept), but because long-time R voters who were still reg. as Democrats are now switching, or ones who died/moved were being purged. Naturally this would lead to less Democrats and more Republicans in the early numbers.

2. The polls pretty much everywhere have shown a lot of coalition mixing. White college graduates & white women who are most likely still registered Republicans but supporting Hillary this year and white working class men who are likely still registered Democrats supporting Trump will make guessing the current status of the NC race pretty difficult.

3. Young & black voter turnout drops will also hurt Democrats. These two demographics are the bread and butter of the NC Democratic coalition. If their numbers don't increase on election day, Democrats will need to either a) win a higher proportion of young voters, similar to Obama '08, or 2) pull a lot more older and/or Republican voters

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

[BoAtlantis]

NC #souls2polls 41,974 in-person #earlyvote Sun, +6,010 in 2012, 31.9% Black, 48.7% Dem. 36.0% Black, 53.7% Dem in 2012 -> more Whites voted

[The Other Castro]

NC #souls2polls 41,974 in-person #earlyvote Sun, +6,010 in 2012, 31.9% Black, 48.7% Dem. 36.0% Black, 53.7% Dem in 2012 -> more Whites voted

It was a little confusing so he clarified:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  40s40 seconds ago
NC #souls2polls 2016 Sunday: 24,008 Whites voted or 57.2%, +4,134 vs 2012 when 55.3% voted. Rep 24.6% in 2016 vs Rep 24.0% in 2012

[HillOfANight]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

[The Other Castro]

NC #souls2polls 41,974 in-person #earlyvote Sun, +6,010 in 2012, 31.9% Black, 48.7% Dem. 36.0% Black, 53.7% Dem in 2012 -> more Whites voted

It was a little confusing so he clarified:
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  40s40 seconds ago
NC #souls2polls 2016 Sunday: 24,008 Whites voted or 57.2%, +4,134 vs 2012 when 55.3% voted. Rep 24.6% in 2016 vs Rep 24.0% in 2012

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
NC #souls2polls 2016 Sunday: real action among unaffiliated. 11,067 voted or 26.4%, +3,147 vs 2012 when 22.0% voted

[bilaps]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

It was 30% in 2012 i think when it ended up at 22 according to exits. So if now is 22% and it is 22.23% with today data, then it would sink well below 20% after election day voting.

Early vote really doesn't look god for Dems in NC but it looks bad for Trump in NV.

[Dr. Arch]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

It was 30% in 2012 i think when it ended up at 22 according to exits. So if now is 22% and it is 22.23% with today data, then it would sink well below 20% after election day voting.

Early vote really doesn't look god for Dems in NC but it looks bad for Trump in NV.

No, it actually looks pretty good. Check out the earlier posts in this thread.

[bilaps]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

It was 30% in 2012 i think when it ended up at 22 according to exits. So if now is 22% and it is 22.23% with today data, then it would sink well below 20% after election day voting.

Early vote really doesn't look god for Dems in NC but it looks bad for Trump in NV.

No, it actually looks pretty good. Check out the earlier posts in this thread.

Well you can spin it but votes cast tell it's own story

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Not really surprised by any of this. I would be really shocked if she overperformed Obama with minorties, which is why I am not 100% sold on the polls showing her doing just that.

I get Trump is divisive but Hillary isn't exactly loved either.

[HillOfANight]

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2016/10/31/fbi-directors-motivations-an-obligation-to-congress-and-fear-of-a-rank-and-file-revolt/

Georgia

- about 560,000 known GOP voters – those who have cast ballots in a few Republican primaries – have already cast ballots.
- That’s compared to 520,000 Democrats and about 200,000 voters who are labeled as “unknown” or “other.”
- Not counting the third category, which is a big wild card, that gives Republicans a roughly 40,000 vote margin.
- At this point in 2012, the GOP had a 2,000 vote deficit.

[The Other Castro]

According to electproject.org, Louisiana has broken past 100% of its 2012 early voting numbers, and Minnesota will as well as soon as it updates.

In total, we're about 48.7% of the total 2012 EV.

[Virginiá]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

Well I would also say that the election laws have changed since 2012, and this year we saw less early voting opportunities in NC, and in some counties with a lot of African Americans - substantially less. In fact, as few opportunities as legally allowed. Further, the loss of straight ticket voting inevitably creates longer wait times there is a big difference between 2 bubbles and 10+. So it's possible that many African Americans who intended to vote early (and may have tried) have decided to put it off until election day, when there will be polling places aplenty. Admittedly, this is my more optimistic view of things. I just think that the severe reduction of early voting in many places is making black turnout look worse than it will end up being.

20% doesn't seem too high to me. I wish I could compare it to 2004, but the EPs show African Americans at 26% of the NC electorate then, even when their turnout was 4-6% lower (nationally). That doesn't seem right given it was only 23% in 2008.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5297180/
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/north-carolina.html
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/

[BoAtlantis]

Black vote as % decreased probably because

1) Restricted poll locations produced a slower start
2) Hillary is not Obama

It also doesn't help that higher % of blacks are breaking for Johnson and Stein than in 2012

She will have to do exceptionally well among educated NeverTrump whites to make up the loss.

[F_S_USATN]

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/10/31/almost-4-million-votes-in-and-8-days-to-go.html

Total Ballots cast:   3,731,646

Total Vote By Mail:  1,963,274 (52.7%)

Total Early Vote:  1,768,372 (47.3%)

And by party:

Republicans:  1,509.467 (40.45%)

Democrats:  1,500,937 (40.22%)

NPA:  721,249 (19.33%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.23%

Overall, after one full weekend of early voting, here is how the I-4 counties look.

Volusia:  Weekend: 39-38-23 Dems – Overall: 41-38-21 GOP (R+3,773)

Seminole: Weekend 40-35-25 GOP – Overall: 43-36-21 GOP (R+6,767)

Orange:  Weekend 48-28-24 Dems – Overall: 48-21-21 DEM (D+36,165)

Osceola: Weekend 48-27-25 Dems – Overall: 48-29-23 DEM (D+11,264)

Polk: 40-40-20 Dems – Overall: 42-39-19 GOP (R+2,346)

Hillsborough: 43-34-23 Dems – Overall: 43-37-29 DEM (D+15,670)

Pinellas 39-37-23 GOP – Overall: 40-39-21 GOP (R+688)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Palm Beach: Weekend: 47-27-24 DEM -- Overall: 49-29-22 DEM (+41,620)

Broward:  Weekend: 57-21-22 DEM -- Overall: 57-23-20 DEM (+112,775)

Miami-Dade: Weekend: 43-29-28 DEM -- Overall: 45-31-24 DEM (+53,518)

[Dr. Arch]

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/10/31/almost-4-million-votes-in-and-8-days-to-go.html

Total Ballots cast:   3,731,646

Total Vote By Mail:  1,963,274 (52.7%)

Total Early Vote:  1,768,372 (47.3%)

And by party:

Republicans:  1,509.467 (40.45%)

Democrats:  1,500,937 (40.22%)

NPA:  721,249 (19.33%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.23%

Overall, after one full weekend of early voting, here is how the I-4 counties look.

Volusia:  Weekend: 39-38-23 Dems – Overall: 41-38-21 GOP (R+3,773)

Seminole: Weekend 40-35-25 GOP – Overall: 43-36-21 GOP (R+6,767)

Orange:  Weekend 48-28-24 Dems – Overall: 48-21-21 DEM (D+36,165)

Osceola: Weekend 48-27-25 Dems – Overall: 48-29-23 DEM (D+11,264)

Polk: 40-40-20 Dems – Overall: 42-39-19 GOP (R+2,346)

Hillsborough: 43-34-23 Dems – Overall: 43-37-29 DEM (D+15,670)

Pinellas 39-37-23 GOP – Overall: 40-39-21 GOP (R+688)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Palm Beach: Weekend: 47-27-24 DEM -- Overall: 49-29-22 DEM (+41,620)

Broward:  Weekend: 57-21-22 DEM -- Overall: 57-23-20 DEM (+112,775)

Miami-Dade: Weekend: 43-29-28 DEM -- Overall: 45-31-24 DEM (+53,518)

Not too shabby!

[ApatheticAustrian]

2 million mail ballots is kind of crazy....amazing number. let's find out of democrats are too stupid to return theirs.

[Speed of Sound]

Two big ?'s are going to plague us all the way through, and thus make FL and NC extremely difficult:

1. What are all these new UAFs doing?

2. How big of an effect is the great Dixiecrat purge?

The answer to those two questions will decide the Southeast coast.

[Dr. Arch]

Two big ?'s are going to plague us all the way through, and thus make FL and NC extremely difficult:

1. What are all these new UAFs doing?

2. How big of an effect is the great Dixiecrat purge?

The answer to those two questions will decide the Southeast coast.

NV, meanwhile, looks settled.

Checkmark!

[Speed of Sound]

Meanwhile, we can all but officially put NV in Clinton's EV #:

You must be logged in to read this quote.