The absentee/early vote thread

[OneJ]

Good News:

Jennifer Epstein on Twitter: Volunteers for Clinton and Dems did 70,000 shifts this weekend, more than Dems did during the same weekend in '08 and '12, per @RobbyMook

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/792918256533270528?s=09

[IceSpear]

I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

Yes, thankfully the Dixiecrats are quickly transferring to their real home, the party they've been consistently supporting for decades.

[Speed of Sound]

Good News:

Jennifer Epstein on Twitter: Volunteers for Clinton and Dems did 70,000 shifts this weekend, more than Dems did during the same weekend in '08 and '12, per @RobbyMook

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/792918256533270528?s=09

While Trump vanned 15 voters to the polls in NV, lol. #groundgame matters.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

in fact, fewer democrats is a GOOD thing, if this comes from people who died or have switched the party, instead of a lack of new registrations.

those dixiecrats have been on the book for decades and made projections more difficult.

maybe this time we are going to figure out how the last elections have worked in reality, besides the curtain of voter registration.

[BoAtlantis]

According to Tom Bonier, people's self-report about having voted early isn't reliable so you can't take it at face value but...

Early voting:
FL - 36% have voted; HRC leads 54%/37%
NC - 29% have voted; HRC leads 61%/33%

This is based on self-report, I believe.

But even if we were to allow for rooms that more Democrats lied about having voted early, it's safe to say that Hillary is doing fine so far in FL. She's leading, though probably not by 17% like above.

[Tender Branson]

This election seems to be shaping up quite different to other recent presidential elections in some states, according to early voting reports:

In Iowa for example, absentee ballot requests are down significantly compared with 2012. On Oct. 28 it was 550K requested, but at the same time in 2012 it was already 600K. A sign of overall lower turnout.

On the other hand in TX, early voting so far is 150% of 2012 - which could be a sign of overall higher turnout (TX already had one of the shi**iest turnout rates anyway, so this would be good).

There could be some real surprises on election day and the map could look not familiar to a traditional US presidential election map ...

[eric82oslo]

This election seems to be shaping up quite different to other recent presidential elections in some states, according to early voting reports:

In Iowa for example, absentee ballot requests are down significantly compared with 2012. On Oct. 28 it was 550K requested, but at the same time in 2012 it was already 600K. A sign of overall lower turnout.

On the other hand in TX, early voting so far is 150% of 2012 - which could be a sign of overall higher turnout (TX already had one of the shi**iest turnout rates anyway, so this would be good).

There could be some real surprises on election day and the map could look not familiar to a traditional US presidential election map ...

Iowa is one of the states, if not the state that is trending the most Republican in this election. You can say the opposite about Texas. It's probably one of the 5-6 states that has been trending the most Democratic in this election so far. So the fact that you are using these two states as examples, should be extremely bad new for Trump supporters and equally extremely encouraging news for Democrats.

[OneJ]

Cuyahoga sees big turnout yesterday as a result of Souls to the Polls.

Link: http://fox8.com/2016/10/30/souls-to-the-polls-campaign-brings-big-turnout-for-early-voting/

[Brittain33]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

Thank you JESUS!!!

10,000 votes doesn't sound like a lot against the state total...

[The Other Castro]

More and more new voters that would tend to vote Democratic are registering as Unaffiliated it seems, throwing a big wrench into pure comparisons to 2012. This is probably why Clinton is leading in polls of early voters by more than we would expect based on strictly just the D v.s. R EV numbers.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Dems added 2,800 to Clark lead on low turnout day Sunday (26,500), just under what they added on same day in '12. Firewall now nearly 47K.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  21s21 seconds ago
So that was some Trump Bump the GOP got in early voting from his Vegas visit Sunday -- i.e. essentially none.


Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier  2m2 minutes ago
OH: Big Dem surge Sat/Sun. Franklin vote only 0.9% behind '12 (was 6.7% Oct 20) and Cuyahoga is 1.9% down on '12 (was '4.9%) #comeyeffect

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yep, nothing to do with weekend turnout, just James Comey sending dems out, seems legit

[JerryArkansas]

Yep, nothing to do with weekend turnout, just James Comey sending dems out, seems legit

Or it has been weak all cycle and now is ramping up at the same time as Comey.  Both are reasonable possibilities.

[The Other Castro]

Yep, nothing to do with weekend turnout, just James Comey sending dems out, seems legit

Oh I thought he was just joking in light of people saying how Comey would depress turnout, when that seems to not be the case.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

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[The Other Castro]

Wow, everything IS bigger in Texas.

[Dr. Arch]

So, overall, a bunch of good news over the weekend, even in OH? Excellent.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
NC Dems continue to make up lost ground for the week of poll closures (now -3.4% from 2012), Reps continue to over-perform (+7.9%)

[HillOfANight]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

20K doesn't move the needle much, when 1.3M have voted in Georgia.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit#gid=1996929977
Black vote still 28.5% vs 33% in 2012.

[The Other Castro]

Also based on NYT's NC early vote tracker/model, they think 3rd parties are going to beat Trump among black voters 4% to 3%.

[fldemfunds]

According to Tom Bonier, people's self-report about having voted early isn't reliable so you can't take it at face value but...

Early voting:
FL - 36% have voted; HRC leads 54%/37%
NC - 29% have voted; HRC leads 61%/33%

This is based on self-report, I believe.

But even if we were to allow for rooms that more Democrats lied about having voted early, it's safe to say that Hillary is doing fine so far in FL. She's leading, though probably not by 17% like above.

Where did you get these numbers?

[dspNY]

Huge move in Ohio for the Dems

OH: Big Dem surge Sat/Sun. Franklin vote only 0.9% behind '12 (was 6.7% Oct 20) and Cuyahoga is 1.9% down on '12 (was '4.9%)
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793065727397879809

Frankin County moving almost to parity is significant because that's Ohio State so the college kids were voting this weekend. Bonier expects early voting turnout in both counties to exceed 2012. Possible Comey effect firing up Dems?

[SunSt0rm]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
NC Dems continue to make up lost ground for the week of poll closures (now -3.4% from 2012), Reps continue to over-perform (+7.9%)

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  23m23 minutes ago
North Carolina demographic characteristics of unaffiliated (no party reg) #earlyvote (as of 10/30)

[BoAtlantis]

According to Tom Bonier, people's self-report about having voted early isn't reliable so you can't take it at face value but...

Early voting:
FL - 36% have voted; HRC leads 54%/37%
NC - 29% have voted; HRC leads 61%/33%

This is based on self-report, I believe.

But even if we were to allow for rooms that more Democrats lied about having voted early, it's safe to say that Hillary is doing fine so far in FL. She's leading, though probably not by 17% like above.

Where did you get these numbers?

It's based on self-report from polls

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

"Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent."

"And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent of North Carolinians who say they've already voted."