The absentee/early vote thread

[StatesPoll]

Florida early voting. 10/30/2016  vs  2012 final results

Summary
2012: 1) Mail: R +3% 2) In Person: D +10%
10/30/2016: 1) Mail: R +3.36% 2) In Person: D +2.6%  
Total:  3.562 Million voted.  REP 40.72% | DEM 40.07% | Ind 19.21%.  

2012 Final results: DEM +3% (DEM 43% | REP 40%)
10/30/2016: REP + 0.65%

Rep is doing better than 2012, Mail and In person both. especially In Person, Dem's leads is decreased by 7.4% (2012: 10% -> 10/30/2016: 2.6%)

Details

I. Florida Vote-By-Mail   10/30/2016 8:05AM
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Voted Ballots: 1.949 Million votes.

REP:  821.1K (42.13%) | DEM: 755.7K (38.77%) | Other 19.1%

REP: +3.36%. slightly better than 2012. (Vote-By-Mail 2012 final results : REP +3%)


II. Florida Early Voting In person.   10/29/2016 6:44AM
Voted(Total) : 1.613 Million votes.
REP: 629.6K (39.03%) |  DEM: 671.6K (41.63%) | Other 19.44%.   DEM +2.6%
very good numbers for TRUMP.
Because in 2012 final results, it was Dem +10% (DEM 46 : REP 36)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

Texas will be a battleground after all

Sending out the bat-signal for NOVA Green on this. It looks like about 2/3 of the total voter registration spike in TX was Hispanic and most of the increased turnout in all these large TX counties is Hispanic

Wouldn't it be hysterical if the final map was something like this?  I know it's not realistic (if TX goes D, then AZ and FL almost certainly do too):  282-256 D

[ApatheticAustrian]

maybe this is after all part of the re-alignment.

dems have added more new voters but many dems have switched.....let's see.


btw....

Pence was NC Saturday, but no other Trump/Pence appearances skedded now. Next week, Biden, Obama, HRC, Ne-Yo, WJC, all in NC for Clinton.
https://twitter.com/GrahamDavidA/status/792789141335539712

[Speed of Sound]

Some explanation for why Upshot showed T+4 in FL:

"@natecohn
This is a big difference between our FL polls: we found no split.

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"

[StatesPoll]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

New Voters. Hispanic and Non Hispanic voters.
Dallas county 21% -6% = 15%
Harris county 22%-10% = 12%

Considering in rural areas of texas. less Hispanic %
So, I'd guess increase amount Hispanic voters in Texas(statewide) it would be about 10%

And based on YouGov Elecion Model, 10/29, Texas
Statewide: TRUMP 51% | Hillary 42.2%
Hispanic: Hillary 59% | TRUMP 33%.  Hillary +26%
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Texas

So, perhaps Hillary could add 10% x 26% = +2.6% more

But, seriously Red Avatars think, Hillary can flip Texas by adding 2.6% more than 2012?

[Confused Democrat]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston has updated on NV:

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http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

He has noted on twitter that it's been a slow morning so far and Trump is in town, so it could be a mediocre day for Dems. Still, they ended up turning around a slow morning yesterday, so we'll have to see how day's end looks.

[ApatheticAustrian]

thank you, harry reid.

[StatesPoll]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.

[swf541]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.

Here is some better advice, dont read his post

[ApatheticAustrian]

reps are leading narrowly in the combined mail + EIV numbers.

republicans are doing great compared to 2012 but a comparison to 2008 is more logical cause of new laws.

otherwise there has been a great re-alignment, which means the democratic edge in voter registration has decreased significant....while still more new voters are registrtered with the dem party.

at the same time, BIG amounts of hispanics are voting and both dem and rep counties are breaking records.

summary: we don't know shoot and there won't be a big dem lead in overall early voting like 2012 cause the overall number of dems is down, but since many of those northern FL were voting republican to begin with, it's all a mystery box.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.

Here is some better advice, dont read his post

[ApatheticAustrian]

some democratic good mood porn from NC:

https://twitter.com/j_fuller/status/792777675718950913?lang=de

[Dr. Arch]

some democratic good mood porn from NC:

https://twitter.com/j_fuller/status/792777675718950913?lang=de

GO GO GO!

[Confused Democrat]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.

Here is some better advice, dont read his post

Lol, this perfectly encapsulates my dilemma.

[swf541]

ApatheticAustrians post a few posts above describes the situation quite well imo

[Dr. Arch]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

Texas will be a battleground after all

Sending out the bat-signal for NOVA Green on this. It looks like about 2/3 of the total voter registration spike in TX was Hispanic and most of the increased turnout in all these large TX counties is Hispanic

Wouldn't it be hysterical if the final map was something like this?  I know it's not realistic (if TX goes D, then AZ and FL almost certainly do too):  282-256 D

I have to say I'm not particularly excited about this.  Unless Trump or a Trump-like candidate actually becomes president and Hispanic turnout spikes in the midterm as well, all Texas is going to do for Democrats any time in the next 12 years is make life miserable for them in the EC.

Regarding Florida, I do think we need to keep in mind that Hispanics of Caribbean descent might not be anywhere near as offended by Trump as those of Mexican descent are.

Trust me, we are.

[Speed of Sound]

Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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[Maxwell]

Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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I only hire the best busses, folks!

[swf541]

Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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That amazing ground game at work /s

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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He should have hired Billy Bush to take his supporters to the polls with the Access Hollywood bus.

[Speed of Sound]

After looking for 20 minutes after the rally ended, Meghan learns that the buses are on the way and showing up at the main valet hall. Between the time and confusion, have to imagine they'll have lost some possible votes on this one (in a state they desperately need help in).

[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/792816810269683712

#gamechanger

[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/792815239083487232?lang=de

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston very amused:

Jon Ralston ‏ 2minutes ago

Only one word for this demonstration of Trump's NV ground game: HUGE.