The absentee/early vote thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

Posting Bill Mitchell tweets?
Seriously?

[psychprofessor]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

god, this just soiled the thread

[PresidentTRUMP]

Ahhh yes your right, they are comparing to Primary, makes very little sense. Thought he was talking about early voting, my apologies!

[Stephen]

it seems to look very good for clinton.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
TX early vote update: just shy of 1.4 Million people voted, running 49.9% over 2012 numbers
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/oct26.shtml


Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
TX early voting increases vs. '12, Day 3:
1. Travis (D) +117%
2. Williamson (R) +89%
3. El Paso (D) +83%
4. Collin (R) +71%
+50% overall

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
VA: so far, absentee votes cast are already 59% of '12 totals in Arlington/Fairfax/Prince William. Only 45% of '12 totals everywhere else.

[swf541]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
TX early vote update: just shy of 1.4 Million people voted, running 49.9% over 2012 numbers
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2016/oct26.shtml


Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
TX early voting increases vs. '12, Day 3:
1. Travis (D) +117%
2. Williamson (R) +89%
3. El Paso (D) +83%
4. Collin (R) +71%
+50% overall

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  1h1 hour ago
VA: so far, absentee votes cast are already 59% of '12 totals in Arlington/Fairfax/Prince William. Only 45% of '12 totals everywhere else.

@Taniel
@Redistrict are you sure? Those aren't the comparison trends that VPAP is providing.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/791728401518387201

In response to the Virginia thing

Voted early in Maryland today, seemed like highish turnout for the area mostly skewed older

[Ebsy]

Wasserman mostly has no idea what he is talking about.

[The Other Castro]

Hmmm yeah if there are conflicting reports, I'd trust @Taniel and McDonald before Wasserman.

Also: Latino Decisions - Early vote spotlight on 3 Hidalgo Co. TX voting locations shows Latino early vote numbers up by about 60% compared to 2012.

[KingSweden]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

god, this just soiled the thread

Remember guys, Trump's turnout operation isn't in a computer, it's in our hearts

[dspNY]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP
She's up 13 points in FL when the party split (a substantial # of early votes now) was even

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

Could be a partial mixture of the two as well.

[dspNY]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

Could be a partial mixture of the two as well.

If it was one sub-sample from one state, then there is no trend. When we are seeing this out of every single state, then you can see the possible landslide because indies usually split evenly and the GOP usually stays 90% or more on its side. The fact that Clinton has 10% more of her base than Trump has of his is hugely important

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

Could be a partial mixture of the two as well.

If it was one sub-sample from one state, then there is no trend. When we are seeing this out of every single state, then you can see the possible landslide because indies usually split evenly and the GOP usually stays 90% or more on its side. The fact that Clinton has 10% more of her base than Trump has of his is hugely important

Good point. I'm all for a landslide

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/early-voting-more-good-signs-for-clinton-in-key-states/2016/10/27/e1fd6334-9c18-11e6-b552-b1f85e484086_story.html

"In Utah, overall ballots are up from 2012, driven by faster gains among voters ages 22 to 49, according to Catalist, a Democratic analytical firm. Republicans barely led in total ballots cast compared to independents, 38.6 percent to 38.5 percent. That could mean that Evan McMullin, a third-party candidate, is drawing support from Republicans unhappy with Trump. Democrats still trail at 19.4 percent, but they’re in an improved position from 2012, when Republicans held a 58 percent to 13 percent lead."


Muffin is holding his ground.

[Gass3268]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/early-voting-more-good-signs-for-clinton-in-key-states/2016/10/27/e1fd6334-9c18-11e6-b552-b1f85e484086_story.html

"In Utah, overall ballots are up from 2012, driven by faster gains among voters ages 22 to 49, according to Catalist, a Democratic analytical firm. Republicans barely led in total ballots cast compared to independents, 38.6 percent to 38.5 percent. That could mean that Evan McMullin, a third-party candidate, is drawing support from Republicans unhappy with Trump. Democrats still trail at 19.4 percent, but they’re in an improved position from 2012, when Republicans held a 58 percent to 13 percent lead."


Muffin is holding his ground.

Shocking results there considering Romney being on the ballot in 2012.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald Retweeted
Kate Amara ‏@kateamaraWBAL  1h1 hour ago
Massive!! MD Early Voting Day 1 as of 4:44pm: 92,562 voters have checked in statewide. Crushed 2012 general day 1 total: 78,409.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

BTW, is there usually any/big difference in AV/EV between rural compared and non-rural areas? If not, poor Trump

[dspNY]

Adding the polling places created a huge surge in Guilford County

https://twitter.com/HPEpaul/status/791744287998353408

[Ebsy]

Adding the polling places created a huge surge in Guilford County

https://twitter.com/HPEpaul/status/791744287998353408

Will be interested to see the final numbers this evening.

[Devout Centrist]

15.4 million ballots cast so far.
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[The Other Castro]

Texas Tribune has a great early vote tracker that compares county numbers to 2012 and 2008.



https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1477592335

[Virginiá]

Adding the polling places created a huge surge in Guilford County

https://twitter.com/HPEpaul/status/791744287998353408

This should help to begin filling some of the gaps we've been seeing in African American turnout. I just hope that people who wanted to vote before but didn't still end up voting now that far more sites have been opened.

[NOVA Green]

Texas Tribune has a great early vote tracker that compares county numbers to 2012 and 2008.



https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1477592335

This is an awesome page....

Running through the numbers looks like there is a major spike in voter turnout in the heavily Democratic strongholds of Dallas, Travis, and El Paso counties, not to mention a pretty decent bump in Harris County, which is not only the largest county in the state, but quite possibly a C +10 County this year, Hidalgo seems to represent a massive surge in the heavily Democratic Rio Grange Valley....

Bexar seems to have a slower increase in total EV numbers than most other urban/suburban counties on the graph, so it will be interesting to see how this trends in what I am expecting to be a +10-12 C county this year...

EVs also appear to be high in traditionally Republican suburban counties of DFW (Tarrant, Collins, and Denton) but this does not necessarily indicate an increase in total Republican vote margins compared to '08 and '12, considering that this could also indicate a significant number of new voter registrations of younger Latinos and Millennials voting Dem, plus defection of college educated Anglos. We'll see what the final outcome is in these counties, but Collins and Denton in particular look ripe for significant defection of traditional Republican leaning voters, and also have a fast growing and educated demographic.

Fort Bend County having this spike is definitely a positive, since it is a county that has been on the "flip list" of Texas suburban counties for quite some time, and has been rapidly trending D. compared to statewide averages.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Daily Update


Another good day for the Dems


13 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  224,914 (139,401)
Republicans  196,082 (190,235)
Independent 143,866 (102,031)

TOTAL 572,550 (436,278)

Dem turnout up 61%
Rethuglican turnout up 3%
Independent turnout up 41%

Total turnout up 31%

[Antonio the Sixth]

15.4 million ballots cast so far.
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

So we can safely say that more than 1 out of 10 voters have already cast their ballot. That's a pretty big deal!