The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

before anyone notices it....dspNY is right but the first pic misstated the numbers of polling places. i updated the pic.

Yeah. Charlotte had 22 polling places at the start of early voting 4 years ago and they are down to 10, but with virtually the same turnout

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is simple mind-boggling for an european.

ofc we have some kind of ID...all of us are showing either their identity card or driver's license....and the people at each voting station know who is supposed to vote there...and there is a polling place at each corner, 3 of them a mile in each direction from my house......

[OneJ]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

I'm more curious about 2012

Looks like we are looking forward to record turnout (in FL at least).

[ApatheticAustrian]

the comparison is a little bit off since early voting gets easier and more popular each cycle but if the parameters stay the same......this is going to bit hurtful.

[OneJ]

Early in-person voting is up 23% across the great state of Virginia.

http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

[Progressive]

So, are there any signs in early voting that look good for Trump/bad for Hillary (or bad/good for down ballot candidates?)

[ApatheticAustrian]

can't be said right now, too much change since 2012, many polling stations not opened.

but OH/IA look better for the GOP.

[ApatheticAustrian]

a general problem for trump could be that his base (white, uneducated men) usually doesn't vote very often (especially if compared to educated females) and are more likely to believe in rigging, which also drives down turnout.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Remember that both Trump and Clinton did really well with early voters in the primary.  I would expect the early vote to be up significantly nationwide and probably more evenly split than in 2012.  Also, keep in mind that the NeverTrump segment of the GOP tends to be the more ideologically opposed to early voting than anyone else in the country.  If there is a GOP turnout collapse, it will likely happen on election day itself.  If Clinton has problems with Sanders supporters, that should also show up more on election day than in the early vote.

Can you elaborate it? I thought that neverTrumpers are mostly well-educated that voted for Kasich. Or? Is there any research how a typical neverTrumper looks like?

And what does  "ideologically opposed to early voting" mean?

[ApatheticAustrian]

skill proposes, people who ideologically are against the concept of early voting wouldn't vote early.

i am sceptical.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

skill proposes, people who ideologically are against the concept of early voting wouldn't vote early.

i am sceptical.

I don't really understand what ideology has to do with early voting? Education/income - yes, but ideology?

Google "National Review, early voting" and read any of the articles that come up.

Will do. Thanks!

[ApatheticAustrian]

I don't really understand what ideology has to do with early voting? Education/income - yes, but ideology?

some parts of the republican coalition think early voting is a bad idea and should be controlled/blocked.

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

[dspNY]

Wisconsin absentee ballot data 10/21

Dane and Milwaukee Counties comprise 29% of the overall absentee ballots. They comprised 26% of the overall Wisconsin vote in 2012. These are the heavy Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties (WOW counties) comprise 12.3% of the overall absentee ballots. They comprised 12.3% of the overall Wisconsin vote in 2012. These are the heavy GOP counties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

When will we see the party breakdown?

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

When will we see the party breakdown?

Voting continues until 8 PM Pacific so we won't see it until very late tonight, possibly tomorrow in the East

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

When will we see the party breakdown?

Voting continues until 8 PM Pacific so we won't see it until very late tonight, possibly tomorrow in the East

Not a problem for me - see avatar. California rules!

[Holmes]

Not a problem for me - see avatar. California rules!

It's ok.

[dspNY]

Ralston:

Day 1 of early voting in Clark County breaks the 2012 record. As of 6 PM, 37,138 people have voted. The record was 33,000

[Ebsy]

Ralston:

Day 1 of early voting in Clark County breaks the 2012 record. As of 6 PM, 37,138 people have voted. The record was 33,000

So much for waning enthusiasm in Nevada!

[The Other Castro]

Flawless beautiful titanium (Atlas) red NevADa!

[ApatheticAustrian]

mormon-latino-state is trump kryptonite.

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact this means the turnout is the same....but 200000 more people now live in clark county.

so you can say ...the turnout atm didn't decrease...AND there are more people there voting...


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790001943699525632

[JerryArkansas]

in fact this means the turnout is the same....but 200000 more people now live in clark county.

so you can say ...the turnout atm didn't increase...AND there are more people there voting...


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790001943699525632

Remember, these tweets were sent 2 hours before the polls closed.  So more are going to vote.