The absentee/early vote thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I just mailed my absentee ballot this morning

[dspNY]

Steve Schale, Obama's 2008 Florida campaign manager and 2012 senior adviser, on the Florida VBM results so far:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/787404801365737477

"Looking at these VBM returns, there is definitely an enthusiasm problem in Florida...but it's not with Democrats"

[Dr. Arch]

I just mailed my absentee ballot this morning

Congrats and thanks

[Tender Branson]

I just mailed my absentee ballot this morning

I will request mine too soon and mail it back in late November.

[BoAtlantis]

Note: Nevada early voting begins on 10/22/16. I am pretty sure what they mean by "early voting" is early votes + absentee ballots. So in Nevada's case, the Republicans' lead may be because early voting hasn't started yet.

[HillOfANight]

I am pretty sure what they mean by "early voting" is early votes + absentee ballots.

Yep, and Georgia will quickly swing to the Democrats starting Monday with in person early voting.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196



Compared to 10/11, Democrats losing small ground in Iowa, North Carolina. They are gaining small ground in Michigan, and gaining fast in Florida.

[voter1993]

Iowa and Ohio looking good for Trump... north carolina & florida still republican advantage but not by much. Anyone see any surprises in the data so far that may play well for Trump?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Iowa and Ohio looking good for Trump... north carolina & florida still republican advantage but not by much. Anyone see any surprises in the data so far that may play well for Trump?

Hopefully none.

However, IA is still looking better for Trump, albeit by a much smaller margin than earlier and OH is still too early to tell, we'll see how it sits this time next week.

[NOVA Green]

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

A lot of tea partiers do as well. NOVA Green (if he's around) probably knows about this more than I do

Although I am flattered to be name-checked, I don't consider myself to be an expert in either Tea Party voter registration habits, let alone Latino Millennials.

However, I will say that Latino Millennials, like many other Millennials typically tend to not register for either party ticket, although obviously there are many large states, including Texas where voters do not register by political party.

Still, there are multiple stories from many states regarding Latino Millennials and their lack of enthusiasm in the current Presidential Election, despite a strong dislike for Trump as the Republican nominee, including many voters that do not identify with either major Party.

http://keranews.org/post/latino-millennials-looking-have-say-years-presidential-election

http://www.demos.org/blog/10/13/16/ideolog%C3%ADa-latino-millennials-challenge-political-parties

http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-column/2016/09/16/latino-millennials-play-key-role-election-researcher-says

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local-news/latinos-and-millennials-targeted-to-register-to-vote

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/10/11/democrats-maintain-edge-as-party-more-concerned-for-latinos-but-views-similar-to-2012/

Most of y'all don't likely have the patience and stamina to look through even a handful of articles that I posted, but:

la realidad es que la gran mayoría de los latinos del Milenio no se ve una diferencia importante entre los dos partidos políticos cuando se trata de dividir a las familias separadas a ambos lados de la frontera.

As I posted almost a year ago, Obama is still perceived as the "Deporter in Chief, that has dramatically expanded deportations for mothers and fathers of Millennials, simply for charges such as possession of small amounts of marijuana or first time DUI offenses, that for the vast majority of Anglos in Texas would warrant simply a few days in jail.

Under the aggressive policies of the Obama justice department that considers individuals that are married to American nationals, children born in America attending public schools, that haven't been back in their home country for 15 years to be "Criminal Aliens" and "Felons" that has separated and divided families, mainly because the US Government and politicians have refused to address this issue since Reagan back in the Mid- '80s.

We add to that, the fact that Clinton has done little since the primaries to actually speak to the broader interests and concerns of young Americans, unlike Bernie Sanders, when it comes to items such as a living wage, free community college tuition, and additionally Latinos have been disproportionately impacted by the elective war overseas in Iraq and military service enlistment in general, and it is no wonder that Latino Millennials are extremely skeptical of her candidacy, regardless of how much they despise Trump.

There is now a major body of polling from multiple states that appears to clearly indicate that Clinton's weakness among Millennials is especially significant when it comes to Latino Millennials.

[HillOfANight]

I don't understand, Dems 57-32 seems like a big advantage (according to NBC/TargetSmart). How big an advantage do they need in Ohio?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't understand, Dems 57-32 seems like a big advantage (according to NBC/TargetSmart). How big an advantage do they need in Ohio?

The issue is where the vote is in OH. If it's mostly Cuyahoga, then that's not great. But if it's places like Hamilton and Montgomery, where Obama won off the back of the early vote, then that's great. But again, it's still too early to determine what the OH numbers are saying.

[Ebsy]

Early vote numbers are not terribly significant until about a week or two before election day.

[BoAtlantis]

I don't know the accuracy of this blog so take it with a grain of salt. It appears to be from a conservative blogger in 2012.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HfIOpQQkNXuoBe1eW0fwt4NxMvH523jkW85npX02zHA/edit#gid=0

http://thirdbasepolitics.blogspot.com/2012/09/absentee-ballot-data-not-looking-good.html

County     Total AB Requests     D           R              D            R         Difference
Total     2008   1,386,683    477,388  260,416    34.43%  18.78%     15.65%
            2012   1,372,336    390,691  298,403    28.47%  21.74%      6.72%

It appears to me that the trend is that Democrats are requesting fewer and fewer AB requests every year. So it would make sense to me that with Ohio being a nail-biter right now, AB requests are down compared to 2012. (Obama won OH by 3% in 2012)

So to make up for their AB requests decline, they have to substantially outperform Republicans on early voting in order to hold them off from Republicans' election day comeback.

[voter1993]

Iowa and Ohio looking good for Trump... north carolina & florida still republican advantage but not by much. Anyone see any surprises in the data so far that may play well for Trump?

Hopefully none.

However, IA is still looking better for Trump, albeit by a much smaller margin than earlier and OH is still too early to tell, we'll see how it sits this time next week.

Thank you! Also, do more republicans vote on election day than democrats correct that is why democrats try and get the early vote out?

[BoAtlantis]

Early vote numbers are not terribly significant until about a week or two before election day.

Of course, but since it began, it's worth observing some trends

[Gass3268]

Clark County, NV Voter Registration Update (Deadline is on Tuesday in Nevada):



- County goes over 1 million registered voters
- Republicans are below 30%
- Democrats have a 139,760 lead

[dspNY]

Clark County, NV Voter Registration Update (Deadline is on Tuesday in Nevada):



- County goes over 1 million registered voters
- Republicans are below 30%
- Democrats have a 139,760 lead

Nevada is structurally a Democratic state

[Holmes]

Clark County, NV Voter Registration Update (Deadline is on Tuesday in Nevada):



- County goes over 1 million registered voters
- Republicans are below 30%
- Democrats have a 139,760 lead

Nevada is structurally a Democratic state

Yes but muh Washoe will hand it to Trump.

[Tender Branson]

CO will start mailing ballots to all 3 Mio. RV today.

New voters will have the possibility of same-day registration on Nov. 8

This should give us a good look at turnout even before election day ...

[chrisras]

Do there numbers include Dead People??

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Do there numbers include Dead People??

There is never any dead people within the numbers. That is just a dumb republican meme.

[chrisras]

Do there numbers include Dead People??

There is never any dead people within the numbers. That is just a dumb republican meme.

You do realize Democrats have been busted for doing this right?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Do there numbers include Dead People??

There is never any dead people within the numbers. That is just a dumb republican meme.

You do realize Democrats have been busted for doing this right?

[HillOfANight]

Looks like Democrats are getting more new or infrequent voters to the polls (though the margin is not significant).

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/787994523771215872
Ohio: 85% of likely D EVs voted in '12, as compared to 86.6% of likely R early voters.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/787847461142495232
Florida: 81.8% Ds voted in '12 vs 83.2% R's.

[Brittain33]

Looks like Democrats are getting more new or infrequent voters to the polls (though the margin is not significant).

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/787994523771215872
Ohio: 85% of likely D EVs voted in '12, as compared to 86.6% of likely R early voters.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/787847461142495232
Florida: 81.8% Ds voted in '12 vs 83.2% R's.

Could this just reflect that Democrats have had an edge in registering over the last four years, in particular with people passing age 18?