The absentee/early vote thread

[Gass3268]

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

Wow, this might corroborate only a 4% lead for Trump.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

Yeah, no way Trump is winning Texas by double-digits

[dspNY]

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

Yeah, no way Trump is winning Texas by double-digits

I would like to see whether someone could pull up Arizona voter registration numbers from 2008 to 2012 to now to see if there is a similar spike

[Maxwell]

this will do significant damage to Trump's popular vote margin.

[NOVA Green]

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

Wow, this might corroborate only a 4% lead for Trump.

Still think it would take 2 or 3 consecutive Trumps for Texas to flip, but wow that is impressive.

I have said for a long time that Texas will be close this election, and that Trump has been causing not only a collapse among Middle-Class Latinos in Texas that typically only vote 56-44 Democrat, but additionally among Anglos in the suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, not to even mention evangelical Christian ladies....

If the Democratic Party had actually put resources into voter registration in Texas this year, there is a likely chance the state would be a tossup as opposed to a narrow Trump lead.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Update:

 Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,170,904
and 2.5% of 2012 total early vote!

[Ozymandias]

"Late Night Numbers from Florida: Older Whites Dominating Early Vote-by-Mail, but Democrats Holding their Own"

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/late-night-numbers-from-florida-older-whites-dominating-early-vote-by-mail-but-democrats-holding-their-own/

"Of the roughly 206k voters 61 and over who have cast VBM thus far, 87% are white. What is surprising, however, is of these 179k older white voters who’ve cast VBM thus far,  less than half (47%) are Republicans."

[Tender Branson]

Update:

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,170,904 and 2.5% of 2012 total early vote!

But that is still less than 1% of the expected total vote (120-140 million).

The early vote analysis won't get meaningful until about 1 week before the election ...

[dspNY]

Florida VBM numbers + votes. This could get updated again today but I'll post what the site has. The number of votes cast increases as the number of ballots requested decreases (when ballots are turned in).

Ballots requested:

GOP: 1,016,177
DEM: 979,787
IND: 458,744
Other: 60,466

Votes:

GOP: 173,451
DEM: 166,667
IND: 61,955
Other: 11,632

Democrats have cut the Republican advantage in total VBM ballots (requests + votes) to 43K out of over 2.9 million. Combined, these are the numbers:

GOP: 1,189,628 (40.6%)
DEM: 1,146,454 (39.1%)
IND: 520,699 (17.8%)
Other: 72,078 (2.5%)

[Tender Branson]

While 2.9 million requests and votes seem to be a lot, it's still only just 1/3rd of the expected vote of 9 million in FL.

Not telling us a lot yet ... even if let's say Democrats are leading by 2 among requested ballots or Republicans, we still don't know how the Independents are voting.

[dspNY]

Iowa's early vote is going much better for the Republicans. They have cut the Democratic edge in ballot requests to 28K

DEM: 150,450
GOP: 122,583
IND: 69,737
Other: 864

Democrats have turned their ballots in at a higher rate. These numbers ARE combined within the total ballot requests, IIRC.

DEM: 78,271
GOP: 43,165
IND: 27,680
Other: 353

[dspNY]

While 2.9 million requests and votes seem to be a lot, it's still only just 1/3rd of the expected vote of 9 million in FL.

Not telling us a lot yet ... even if let's say Democrats are leading by 2 among requested ballots or Republicans, we still don't know how the Independents are voting.

The GOP won the VBM balloting by 4% in 2012. Right now, they are only 1.5% ahead and that lead is narrowing. What remains to be seen is whether Democrats who normally vote early in person or on Election Day are deciding to VBM or whether Democrats have increased their share of the electorate by getting new registrants to vote early. I suspect it is the latter

[BoAtlantis]

Iowa's early vote is going much better for the Republicans. They have cut the Democratic edge in ballot requests to 28K

DEM: 150,450
GOP: 122,583
IND: 69,737
Other: 864

Democrats have turned their ballots in at a higher rate. These numbers ARE combined within the total ballot requests, IIRC.

DEM: 78,271
GOP: 43,165
IND: 27,680
Other: 353

If there is any state in which early indicator is very telling, it's Iowa. Democrats do most of the work through ballot requests and if they can't get an edge here, they'll likely lose here.

RCP average of +3.7 may be very accurate.

[Brittain33]

If there is any state in which early indicator is very telling, it's Iowa. Democrats do most of the work through ballot requests and if they can't get an edge here, they'll likely lose here.

RCP average of +3.7 may be very accurate.

True. With Branstad, Grassley, and Ernst lining up the R machine solidly behind Trump, this is one state where we'll see what 2016 might have looked like if the R candidate had an actual get-out-the-vote effort of his own.

[BoAtlantis]

If there is any state in which early indicator is very telling, it's Iowa. Democrats do most of the work through ballot requests and if they can't get an edge here, they'll likely lose here.

RCP average of +3.7 may be very accurate.

True. With Branstad, Grassley, and Ernst lining up the R machine solidly behind Trump, this is one state where we'll see what 2016 might have looked like if the R candidate had an actual get-out-the-vote effort of his own.

I don't know how much endorsements boost the margins. But it could partially explain why Ohio seems to give a better chance for Hillary than Iowa, with Kasich's refusal to endorse Trump.

[voter1993]

Any new updates on nc?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Any new updates on nc?

[BoAtlantis]

Florida absentee status in 2016 to a comparable point in time in 2012

[Maxwell]

but but but turnouts going to be low because all of my facebook friends keep yammering about how bad both candidates are!

[Gass3268]

Any new updates on nc?

In person voting starts Thursday.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

To follow up with an update,

http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Northern Virginia 55.60%
Southwest Virginia 22.96%
Capital Region 14.94%
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula 12.84%
Southside Virginia 9.69%
Valley of Virginia 4.60%
Piedmont -0.23%
Hampton Roads -8.17%
 
2012
60,612
 
2016
74,461
 
Change
22.85%

[dspNY]

Maricopa County (AZ) voter registration statistics

January 2013

GOP: 707,205
DEM: 532,399
IND: 638,229

March 2016

GOP: 708,941
DEM: 532,946
IND: 733,577
LIB: 17,400
Green: 2,109

October 8, 2016 (most recent information)

GOP: 755,808
DEM: 601,248
IND: 737,983
LIB: 19,514
Green: 3,353

Democratic registration has increased by 69K in Maricopa since March while Republican registration has increased 47K and Independent registration has increased 4K. This is an improvement for the Democrats but unlikely to structurally change the electorate. Sixty percent of the Arizona vote in 2012 came from Maricopa County. The Republican advantage in Maricopa in March 2016 was roughly equivalent to what it was at the end of the 2012 election cycle. There are 100K more voters with no party affiliation in Maricopa since 2012.

Pima County (AZ) voter registration statistics

January 2013

DEM: 187,577
GOP: 154,996
IND: 151,470

March 2016

DEM: 179,043
GOP: 148,215
IND: 159,929

October 8, 2016

DEM: 203,767
GOP: 161,871
IND: 165,519

Democratic and Republican voter rolls declined in Pima from the last election cycle to March 2016. However, Democrats have increased their share of the electorate by 16K from 2012 while Republicans have improved by 7K and independents have improved by 14K.

Overall, in the two largest Arizona counties, Dems have added 86K voters since 2012 while Republicans have added 54K and independents have added 114K. This represents a narrowing of the Republican structural advantage in the state. However, the Republicans still have a major edge, unless the independents largely vote Democratic. Mitt Romney won Arizona by 208K in 2012, and the Democrats have improved their standing a little bit, but more work will be required to turn Arizona into a perennial swing state

[swf541]

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

[dspNY]

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

A lot of tea partiers do as well. NOVA Green (if he's around) probably knows about this more than I do

[swf541]

Great post, but dont a lot of dem leaning Hispanics register as Independent and not Dem?

A lot of tea partiers do as well. NOVA Green (if he's around) probably knows about this more than I do

Interesting, thanks.