The absentee/early vote thread

[Cruzcrew]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

Trump always did overperform with early voters during the primaries so his base might just be more of an early voter base. There's also high enthusiasm for him with his key supporters.

[JerryArkansas]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

Trump always did overperform with early voters during the primaries so his base might just be more of an early voter base. There's also high enthusiasm for him with his key supporters.

Yes, Trump always killed it in the early vote in the competitive primaries and in some cases (LA, AR, MO) it nearly turned into a tie when the election day votes reported.  Also, keep in mind that the committed NeverTrump portion of the GOP tends to be strongly ideologically opposed to early voting in general.

On a different note, don't we generally expect mail ballots to lean right and in person early ballots to lean left?

Yeah, that's why it is so interesting that these trends are occurring.  You would expect something a bit more.

[Gass3268]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

Trump always did overperform with early voters during the primaries so his base might just be more of an early voter base. There's also high enthusiasm for him with his key supporters.

So did Clinton...

[HillOfANight]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897?o=1
http://lpstrategies.com/white-papers/its-time-for-democrats-to-ctfd/920,2016

In most states, Trump did not really bring new voters, but in North Carolina, 8% of GOP primary voters were new voters according to Lincoln Park Strategies.

[Gass3268]

Absentee voting way up in Northern Virginia:

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That's a 91% increase from 2012.

Falls Church, VA also saw 5% it's city's active turnout vote on day.

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[Gass3268]

Another interesting twitter drump by Dave Wasserman:

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[StatesPoll]

http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/republicans-lead-early-voting-in-florida-by-120000/

Republicans lead early voting in Florida by 120,000 votes (of 2 Million votes)
Republicans 43% | Democrats  37% | Indpendent 17.5% | Other Party 2.5%

It seems now Florida - Likely TRUMP

[Xing]

This is encouraging, but I don't want to rad too much into this. Registering new voters is one thing, getting them to the polls is a different kind of challenge.

[Ozymandias]

http://www.wnd.com/2016/09/republicans-lead-early-voting-in-florida-by-120000/

Republicans lead early voting in Florida by 120,000 votes (of 2 Million votes)
Republicans 43% | Democrats  37% | Indpendent 17.5% | Other Party 2.5%

It seems now Florida - Likely TRUMP

Dude, you need to stop being so careless with your posts-- these aren't actual votes, just ballot requests.

Did you really think 2 million people in Florida had already voted?

Also, as I understand it, Republicans typically outpace Democrats in absentee voting-- especially early on-- so I doubt these numbers are much different from 2012 when Obama won Florida.

[Ozymandias]

For the record, the actual early Florida vote (obtained from https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats via http://www.electproject.org/early_2016) is ...

Democrats 26
Republicans 15
Not Affiliated 5

...for a grand total of 46 actual votes.

It seems now Florida - Likely CLINTON! WOO HOO!!

[Ozymandias]

Here's a good summary on the limited early voting (and ballot request) data that's come in so far across the country:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

[Gass3268]

Anyone know how the Florida numbers compare to 2012 or is it new this year?

[chrisras]

4.3 million early votes in Florida in 2012.

43% Democrat
40% Republican

[dspNY]

4.3 million early votes in Florida in 2012.

43% Democrat
40% Republican

That includes all the vote in person. Absentees skew GOP, vote in person skews Dem

[Likely Voter]

From a Blog post from UofFlorida professor who runs the US Elections Project and is tracking early voting with the AP...

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he has more data here...
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Ozymandias]

Anyone know how the Florida numbers compare to 2012 or is it new this year?

Hard to compare because of this change:

"In 2012, Florida adopted semi-permanent absentee ballot status where mail ballot voters can request to vote-by-mail in the next election when they mail in their ballot, and we saw an increase of mail balloting in 2014."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

[Gass3268]

Anyone know how the Florida numbers compare to 2012 or is it new this year?

Hard to compare because of this change:

"In 2012, Florida adopted semi-permanent absentee ballot status where mail ballot voters can request to vote-by-mail in the next election when they mail in their ballot, and we saw an increase of mail balloting in 2014."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

Ah, so we are comparing apples and oranges in Florida.

[Sorenroy]

Update with New Graphic for NC:



Also, question: why and how did the total Republican ballots accepted in 2012 decrease between day 38 and 37?

Edit: nevermind, I guess it just didn't change.

[PaperKooper]

Update with New Graphic for NC:



Also, question: why and how did the total Republican ballots accepted in 2012 decrease between day 38 and 37?

None of the bars changed significantly, presumably because it was a Sunday so the mail couldn't deliver the ballots. 

[bilaps]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

[Ebsy]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

How exactly did he come up with this figure?

[bilaps]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

How exactly did he come up with this figure?

Don't have an idea, posted because I thought someone might know something.

Oh, sorry I forgot to type in Iowa. Not intentional.

[Ozymandias]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

How exactly did he come up with this figure?

Don't have an idea, posted because I thought someone might know something.

Oh, sorry I forgot to type in Iowa. Not intentional.

I don't think Iowa can be compared yet, because...

"Iowa started their mail balloting slightly later than 2012 due to slower printing of ballots."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

There's some more detailed Iowa analysis later in the article-- basically, both Democratic and Republican ballot requests are down from past years, presumably because of the ballot printing delay.

[StatesPoll]

MSM: Hillary won the debate! oh!!!!!!!! yea~~~~~! (orgasm)

Floridian people: Wrong!

Florda  Vote-by-Mail Request
9/23 REP 881K | DEM 760K
REP  +121K
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/yuge-trump-leads-early-voting-florida-120000-first-republicans-state/
↓
9/27 3PM   REP 959K | DEM 815K
REP +144K

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol, you're a delight.

Noting that most ballot requests from the last 24 hours wouldn't have been processed yet and don't pretend that you have the vaguest idea what an orgasm is.