The absentee/early vote thread

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Hopefully we see a huge democratic upswing soon.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

He says the ballots have already been sent out for local candidates and they are seeing margins that parallel 2012. It's 99% due to the Clinton campaign waiting a week or two to get them sent. Notice the GOP number is hardly different at this stage. That's the number you have to watch for increased turnout on the GOP side

I've done some reading and yes, Clinton is delaying the absentee campaign, while the GOP is keeping the same schedule, which does explain why the GOP is roughly on par with 2012 and the Dems are behind.

[MT Treasurer]

NC absentee ballots through 9/21

[Sorenroy]

Well, early voting from that Old North site show Democrats holding longer than in 2012.



Also, while the Democrats and Unaffiliateds are ahead of their 2012 numbers, Republicans are lagging behind.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Great news! NC will definitely be down to the wire this year

[Tender Branson]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

[Tender Branson]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

I never claimed it was representative... I pointed out that the trend line seems to favor Clinton.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

I never claimed it was representative... I pointed out that the trend line seems to favor Clinton.

We can only see if this is true if the "trend" holds up if for example 2 million absentee/early votes are in ... but not just 4.000.

[indietraveler]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

He says the ballots have already been sent out for local candidates and they are seeing margins that parallel 2012. It's 99% due to the Clinton campaign waiting a week or two to get them sent. Notice the GOP number is hardly different at this stage. That's the number you have to watch for increased turnout on the GOP side

I've done some reading and yes, Clinton is delaying the absentee campaign, while the GOP is keeping the same schedule, which does explain why the GOP is roughly on par with 2012 and the Dems are behind.

Thanks for the info. As someone who has voted by mail since 2008 I was wondering when I was even going to receive my request notice to send in for a ballot. Mine still hasn't come yet. Those dem numbers should definitely spike then over the next month.

[Adam Griffin]

The huge number of absentee ballot requests among college-aged voters in NC: did that happen four years ago as well?

[Adam Griffin]

Absentee ballots started going out in Georgia yesterday, according to the data available from SoS. It's a shame that they don't have an option for viewing all of the state's data at once: it's broken down into individual files for each county regardless of how you sort it. No data on race or age in there, either. Here are the mailed absentee totals for the 25 counties with the most requests (60% of state's population):

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[KingSweden]

Do Georgia absentee ballots usually skew pretty R?

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/NCCivitas/status/779037596265619456
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

Civitas has an easy vote/registration tracker here.

[HillOfANight]

Absentee ballots started going out in Georgia yesterday, according to the data available from SoS. It's a shame that they don't have an option for viewing all of the state's data at once: it's broken down into individual files for each county regardless of how you sort it. No data on race or age in there, either. Here are the mailed absentee totals for the 25 counties with the most requests (60% of state's population):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/779045369632034817

[Ebsy]

Democrats maintaining an edge in requested absentee ballots in North Carolina. Anyone have any idea when the GOP took the lead last cycle?

[TarHeelDem]

Well, early voting from that Old North site show Democrats holding longer than in 2012.



Also, while the Democrats and Unaffiliateds are ahead of their 2012 numbers, Republicans are lagging behind.

According to this graph the GOP took the lead 51 days before Election Day last cycle.

While this is good news, my worry is that a lot of White conservative Democrats that haven't voted in ages have been reengaged by Trump and that passion is partially at work here. Or maybe this is all just a sign of Clinton's superior ground game.

[dspNY]

Democrats maintaining an edge in requested absentee ballots in North Carolina. Anyone have any idea when the GOP took the lead last cycle?

The GOP took the lead 3 or 4 days earlier than this in 2012 so they are lagging by quite a bit. Dem ballot requests are still above 2012 levels

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MSNBC just announced the party registration of the first 4,000 returned absentee ballots in NC:

Democrat 42%
Republican 34%
Unaffiliated 25%
Libertarian <1%

Obviously we don't know exactly who these votes were cast for, but a eight point registration lead has to mean something good for Clinton. And before anyone says "DIXIECRATS!", it was also mentioned that at this point in 2012, Republicans had a 5% lead in this statistic.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

I'd say it is encouraging for Clinton, but we will have to wait and see.

[ElectionsGuy]

Don't absentee votes generally favor Democrats? We can't tell anything from this yet.

[heatcharger]

Don't absentee votes generally favor Democrats? We can't tell anything from this yet.

Democrats are outperforming their 2012 numbers and the GOP is underperforming.

[dspNY]

Don't absentee votes generally favor Democrats? We can't tell anything from this yet.

Nope, they usually favor the GOP

Edit: Iowa is a rare exception

[Ebsy]

Don't absentee votes generally favor Democrats? We can't tell anything from this yet.

Absentee ballots usually favor the GOP while in person early voting favors Democrats.