The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

A similar pattern is seen in Maine as Dems are in the very early going outpacing their 2012 early turnout. We'll see if it holds up

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/777622513975042048

[Classic Conservative]

A similar pattern is seen in Maine as Dems are in the very early going outpacing their 2012 early turnout. We'll see if it holds up

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/777622513975042048

Did you even read that he said he's going to compare it with 2012 later tonight?

[Classic Conservative]

In Maine Republican and Democratic ballot request are both ahead of 2012, but more so Republicans. Unenrolled down though. https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/777661571673694208

[MT Treasurer]

[Xing]

It's early, but those don't seem to suggest an enormous Republican trend in the state, which would be necessary to flip ME-02.

[dspNY]

It's early, but those don't seem to suggest an enormous Republican trend in the state, which would be necessary to flip ME-02.

Yeah, it looks like from those CD breakdowns that Clinton would win CD-2 by 3-5 points as long as that trend continued. Maine would shift 2-3 points right but not into any kind of battleground status

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

When does by mail voting start for Oregon? I really want to vote CLINTON and all the way down the ticket for every democrat on this years ballot. Badly.

[Eraserhead]

I think early voting is just becoming more popular in general. It's probably too early to glean much more than that from this info.

[KingSweden]

I think early voting is just becoming more popular in general. It's probably too early to glean much more than that from this info.

[MT Treasurer]

North Carolina numbers:

[Wells]

I decided to make a map because why not. Shading is based on the party registration of accepted ballots.

Democrats 44
Began 14
Hasn't begun 480

I'll just be updating this based on what I see in this thread.

Updates: Dems still ahead in NC (by enough to where I can assume Clinton is likely leading), and FL released their numbers (currently 3-1 Dem).

[Dr. Arch]

I'm likely voting early so that I can spend election day giving people rides to the polls.

[MT Treasurer]

NC absentee ballots through 9/19

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/778189996461330432

18% are overseas ballots and are 50-23% Dem/Rep;

82% are "domestic" ballots and are 39-37% Dem.

[Ebsy]

The numbers so far are definitely not great for the GOP if they wanted to replicate their 2012 victory in the state. Obviously things can and will change, but I think we might be seeing the first signs of Clinton's ground game massively outclassing Trump's. Considering the age skew of the absentee ballots, the GOP absolutely should be leading.

[Classic Conservative]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Ebsy]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

[Classic Conservative]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

Yeah but we have big numbers in Pinellas and Orange and Hillsborough are both close

[Ebsy]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

Yeah but we have big numbers in Pinellas and Orange and Hillsborough are both close

We also regrettably don't (as far as I know) have data from 2012 to compare to.

[JerryArkansas]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

Yeah but we have big numbers in Pinellas and Orange and Hillsborough are both close

Don't read too much into that.  Most new people seem to register as non-affiliated in Florida, heavily so in the case of those from Puerto Rico.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

[dspNY]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

No numbers for Palm Beach County either

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

[Cruzcrew]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

I guess this could indicate a lot of ordinarily Democratic Iowa early voters are undecided this time. I wonder how big the swing is gonna be.

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

He says the ballots have already been sent out for local candidates and they are seeing margins that parallel 2012. It's 99% due to the Clinton campaign waiting a week or two to get them sent. Notice the GOP number is hardly different at this stage. That's the number you have to watch for increased turnout on the GOP side