The absentee/early vote thread

[Person Man]

It appears that Democrats have finally overtaken Republicans in active count in voting numbers.

http://www.coloradopols.com/diary/87996/dems-surpass-republicans-in-independent-plurality-colorado#sthash.cZafgvB2.dpbs

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

10/5



Democrats still leading the accepted ballots! Pretty amazing.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

40 percent of returned and accepted ballots are from registered Democrats, 36 percent from registered Republicans, and 25 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Comparing returned and accepted ballots to the same day cumulative totals from the parties in 2012, registered Democrats still lead in their percentage (117 percent compared to their 2012 same-day cumulative numbers), with registered unaffiliated voters at 114 percent, and registered Republicans are at 58 percent of their same-day numbers.



http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

The republican turn out is way the hell down...Trumps crappy organization is really starting to show.

[Gass3268]

When does in person early voting start in NC?

[TarHeelDem]

When does in person early voting start in NC?

October 20.

[Badger]

New data from Iowa.

So if I see this right, the Dems are starting to pick up on the absentee ballot requests in IA, after deliberately holding out on the push until later than average in the season (Per some of the various political sites reporting)?

Links?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Updated CO absentee ballot stats (from #APElecRsch) 2,472 voted. By party reg Dem 47.7% Rep 24.1% Unaffiliated 26.6%

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784075959506874368


At least 186,293 people have voted in the 2016 election as of 10/5 http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

NC absentee ballot stats as of 10/6





https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[indietraveler]

I can confirm for Iowa that the democratic party is delaying their early voting process. I've voted early by mail each election since 2008 and just today I finally received my request form in the mail for a vote by mail ballot! I was about to make a call in the next few days to make a request.

[dspNY]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

[BoAtlantis]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

[dspNY]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

Very true. As for Florida, Mook is happy that Democrats have narrowed the gap with vote by mail. As long as they keep it relatively close (right now Repubs have 42.5% of the mail-in ballots, Dems have 38%, and Indies have the remaining 19.5%), they expect to overtake the Republicans in the early vote when in-person voting starts and think they'll have a larger lead going into Nov. 8 than Obama had 4 years ago

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

[Dr. Arch]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

[BoAtlantis]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

[Dr. Arch]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

Yes, and how does that compare to previous years (if the data is available)?

[BoAtlantis]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

Yes, and how does that compare to previous years (if the data is available)?

I wasn't able to find anything. I'll post it if there is anything useful.

[Adam Griffin]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

Or the Democrats may just be cannibalizing their Election Day vote. That's what happened in Georgia in 2014: based on early vote totals, it appeared that the electorate was going to be 6 points blacker than in 2010 and with much higher turnout. Instead, turnout in 2014 was slightly lower than in 2010; you just had a lot more people show up during early voting overall, and disproportionately more Democrats on top of that. Democrats have increasingly becoming good at mastering early voting. It's part of the reason that the GOP has recently developed a hate-boner for it.

[BoAtlantis]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

Or the Democrats may just be cannibalizing their Election Day vote. That's what happened in Georgia in 2014: based on early vote totals, it appeared that the electorate was going to be 6 points blacker than in 2010 and with much higher turnout. Instead, turnout in 2014 was slightly lower than in 2010; you just had a lot more people show up during early voting overall, and disproportionately more Democrats on top of that. Democrats have increasingly becoming good at mastering early voting. It's part of the reason that the GOP has recently developed a hate-boner for it.

Very true, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight in early indications. Early voting boosts turnout overall according to research so in theory, it does benefit Democrats.

One can argue that Democrats lost badly in 2014 despite the early voting and would have lost even bigger without it.

[HillOfANight]

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2016/10/team-clinton-boasts-its-edging-gop-in-mailed-ballots-from-less-reliable-florida-voters.html

Some 2.7 million people have requested ballots, compared to 1.8 million at the same point in 2012, he said -- an almost 50 percent increase. Requests from Hispanics are up 77 percent from the same point in 2012, he said, and from Asian-Americans up nearly 80 percent.

But the most important bit of data he highlighted was ballot requests from "low-propensity" voters -- people who don't reliably participate in elections.

"We are turning out more of our low-propensity voters than the Republicans, and that's what really matters when you're trying to win an election in the margins," Mook said.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/both-major-partys-cannibalizing-as-they-post-vote-by-mails-gains-106084



Of the ballot requests, for those that didn't vote in 2012, 19% are Democrats, 16% Republicans.

[Sorenroy]

Of the ballot requests, for those that didn't vote in 2012, 19% are Democrats, 16% Republicans.

Actually, what this shows is that 16% of the total number of Republicans who requested these ballots for 2016 did not vote in 2012, rather than that 16% of ballot requests from people who didn't vote in 2012 are Republican (same goes for the other two, I just chose Republicans as my example).

[HillOfANight]

Ahha, you're right, that doesn't add up to 100%.

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

[Gass3268]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

I think when it's all said and done, CD-2 will be closer than past years but we are going to laugh at ourselves for thinking Trump could win it.

[Holmes]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

I think when it's all said and done, CD-2 will be closer than past years but we are going to laugh at ourselves for thinking Trump could win it.

I agree. Obama won it by 8% in 2012. I can see Clinton winning by 4-5%, an increase in support for Republicans but still a comfortable Democratic victory.