The absentee/early vote thread

[JimSharp]

I don't know enough to say if it is true or not, but some analysts have blamed the low AA turnout in NC on less (in some cases only 1) early vote locations 1st week and some hurricane displacement. Some Dems think rebound this week is possible/probably. dunno if accurate but early vote trends/patterns have likely been affected by shortened EV window that was reversed by court order.

[Ozymandias]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)

Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

You're making the false assumption that all Whites will vote for Trump in the same way they did for Romney, especially in the case for White Republican women.

Agreed-- also, I think the main takeaway from these plots is the huge increase in UNA voting, which demographics and early polling suggest will break towards Clinton

(btw, please fix your quoting-- the "Nice" part isn't mine.)

[Dr. Arch]

Oh actually this graph is better (from http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/)


Nice! Thanks for the update on where the state stands right now, Trump has to have that one.

You're making the false assumption that all Whites will vote for Trump in the same way they did for Romney, especially in the case for White Republican women.

Polling seems mixed on this. New elon poll shows him up bigly among whites.

A poll that didn't weight for education, which is the primary divider in this demographic. Huge flaw.

[The Other Castro]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
Comparing 2012 vs. 2016 in early vote by party affiliation -- one week out before election, via NBC/TargetSmart

[riceowl]

What am I missing about that Georgia number? Because that shift is well insane.

[Speed of Sound]

"FL still tied", as Murray notes, but 40-40-19 in FL is probably a better look for Dems than 42-42-16. At any rate, this is handy to have all in one place.

[Maxwell]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

[Ozymandias]

What am I missing about that Georgia number? Because that shift is well insane.

Hard to say, since I think the states with asterisks are derived from TargetSmart modeling since those states don't release party info about early voters.

[ApatheticAustrian]

are those numbers valid? do all those midwestern states have full early voting?

otherwise i can't understand why the dems should surge in WI and MI. (even absentee-kingdom PA lol)

[Dr. Arch]

are those numbers valid? do all those midwestern states have full early voting?

otherwise i can't understand why the dems should surge in WI and MI. (even absentee-kingdom PA lol)

WI has full early voting going until 11/4.

[HillOfANight]

What am I missing about that Georgia number? Because that shift is well insane.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard

These numbers are stale, but a week ago, it seems like very strong GOP turnout in North Georgia which favors Trump. Potentially leading to low election day turnout.

And as elsewhere nationally, Black share of vote is down.

[swf541]

Some really great swings in VA and WI

[Brittain33]

What am I missing about that Georgia number? Because that shift is well insane.

Hard to say, since I think the states with asterisks are derived from TargetSmart modeling since those states don't release party info about early voters.

It must be. VA doesn't even have registration by party.

[JerryArkansas]

are those numbers valid? do all those midwestern states have full early voting?

otherwise i can't understand why the dems should surge in WI and MI. (even absentee-kingdom PA lol)

No, PA has strict absentee voting, while Michigan has excused Absentee, and one of those excuses is being over I think 50.

[windjammer]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
Comparing 2012 vs. 2016 in early vote by party affiliation -- one week out before election, via NBC/TargetSmart

Wow, good news for dems

[Ozymandias]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

Like GA, I believe this is a model result, not actual released data.

[swf541]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

Like GA, I believe this is a model result, not actual released data.

Ok, that makes  alot more sense now

[bilaps]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

if trump is going to have any chance of beating hillary in MI, he will have a big number of those D especially men voting for him. so it isn't a big deal this.

[PresidentTRUMP]

why hasn't their been more conversations about Michigan Democrats just decimating Michigan Republicans this year?? Am i missing something?

if trump is going to have any chance of beating hillary in MI, he will have a big number of those D especially men voting for him. so it isn't a big deal this.

Agreed. Trump's only chance in Michigan is to win a ton of white blue collar male voters who always vote D but like Trumps message on trade for that state and bringing manufacturing jobs back. He would have to win a ton of those type of voters to squeak out a win there.

You would think his message would be ideal for a state like Michigan. Again the wild card will be does the AA vote significantly drop in cities like Detroit or not.

[ApatheticAustrian]

MI is in a better shape than usually thought and is less stereotypical midwest today.

OH is and stays ground-zero.

what makes me crazy is that we assume, MI union-voters want to double down on union-death.

[dspNY]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
Comparing 2012 vs. 2016 in early vote by party affiliation -- one week out before election, via NBC/TargetSmart

Wow, good news for dems

That looks really good, wow!

[dspNY]

However, I would see if Obama could stay in FL for the remaining 6 days of campaigning. We need an African-American voter push and he's the man

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

[Speed of Sound]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

He's already said he banked on today being low, due to historic trends in EV there. He's not forecasting with that last phrase, he's trolling. That's not to say the numbers will or won't end up okay by week's end, but he's having fun right now.

[Yank2133]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

He's already said he banked on today being low, due to historic trends in EV there. He's not forecasting with that last phrase, he's trolling. That's not to say the numbers will or won't end up okay by week's end, but he's having fun right now.

And it will work too.