The absentee/early vote thread

[NOVA Green]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

Exactly, take a chill pill all Dem avatars...

We have a legal means of dealing with stress induced psychosis now in Oregon, that will likely spread to California, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, and Maine in the very near future.

Back to reality, Dem numbers are looking strong in Nevada and Colorado.

EV numbers are lower than expected in Iowa, but picking up, now that the Dems did a strategic decision to do a "late push". Still think the state will flip, but will likely be close.

Ohio would appear to be natural Trump country, but numbers this weekend make me a bit more optimistic considering the Ground Game gap,

Florida, we always knew was going to be a close state, so the key question is if the Latino surge offsets some of the Grumpy Old White MidWest Men outside of Tampa-St Pete.

If I recall the cover of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy "Don't Panic"....

[Confused Democrat]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

I don't think thats what Democrats are wetting the bed about. It's not that we believe that our candidate is inherently unlikable, we're just distraught by the fact that Donald Trump is the second most likely person to become POTUS come November 8th.

To put it bluntly.

A lot of us believe that the stability of our Republic hangs in the balance. Most of us don't think Hillary is going to lose, in fact, most of us believe she's going to win by a comfortable margin. Any chance of Trump winning this election, no matter how small, is enough to make us nervous.

[morgieb]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

[Confused Democrat]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

I heard it was worse.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

I don't think thats what Democrats are wetting the bed about. It's not that we believe that our candidate is inherently unlikable, we're just distraught by the fact that Donald Trump is the second most likely person to become POTUS come November 8th.

To put it bluntly.

A lot of us believe that the stability of our Republic hangs in the balance. Most of us don't think Hillary is going to lose, in fact, most of us believe she's going to win by a comfortable margin. Any chance of Trump winning this election, no matter how small, is enough to make us nervous.

Exactly the way I feel. It needs to be large enough to turn back the tide of extremism and anti-governmentalism or the next 4 years is going to be really ugly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

I don't think thats what Democrats are wetting the bed about. It's not that we believe that our candidate is inherently unlikable, we're just distraught by the fact that Donald Trump is the second most likely person to become POTUS come November 8th.

To put it bluntly.

A lot of us believe that the stability of our Republic hangs in the balance. Most of us don't think Hillary is going to lose, in fact, most of us believe she's going to win by a comfortable margin. Any chance of Trump winning this election, no matter how small, is enough to make us nervous.

Exactly the way I feel. It needs to be large enough to turn back the tide of extremism and anti-governmentalism or the next 4 years is going to be really ugly.

Then stop panicking and do what you can to change things. Trump is where he is thanks to the GOP, if people hold their nerve and work as hard as they can, Trump isn't going to win. It really is that simple.

[IceSpear]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

I heard it was worse.

At least Romney actually led in the polls multiple times in October.

[NOVA Green]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

I don't think thats what Democrats are wetting the bed about. It's not that we believe that our candidate is inherently unlikable, we're just distraught by the fact that Donald Trump is the second most likely person to become POTUS come November 8th.

To put it bluntly.

A lot of us believe that the stability of our Republic hangs in the balance. Most of us don't think Hillary is going to lose, in fact, most of us believe she's going to win by a comfortable margin. Any chance of Trump winning this election, no matter how small, is enough to make us nervous.

Exactly the way I feel. It needs to be large enough to turn back the tide of extremism and anti-governmentalism or the next 4 years is going to be really ugly.

Then stop panicking and do what you can to change things. Trump is where he is thanks to the GOP, if people hold their nerve and work as hard as they can, Trump isn't going to win. It really is that simple.

This....

Been around over four decades now, and quite frankly this race is looking like anywhere from a 2-8% Democratic win in the PV, even if Clinton's numbers drop a point or two in the last week, and undecideds and 3rd Party voters somehow swing dramatically towards Trump.

What we have seen in the past six weeks is Trump consolidating the Republican base to a significant extent, and catching up with Clinton that started to consolidate the Democratic base slightly earlier.

Overall Clinton is looking to be in slightly better shape than Obama in '08, although some traditionally Democratic swing states are looking a little closer, while Trump has taken a giant nose-dive in places like Arizona, Texas, and Utah.

Feel the power of the force young Jedi's, and there is actually a decent chance that Clinton will be the 3rd Democratic Presidential candidate in a row to win >50% of the popular vote.

[Badger]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

I don't think thats what Democrats are wetting the bed about. It's not that we believe that our candidate is inherently unlikable, we're just distraught by the fact that Donald Trump is the second most likely person to become POTUS come November 8th.

To put it bluntly.

A lot of us believe that the stability of our Republic hangs in the balance. Most of us don't think Hillary is going to lose, in fact, most of us believe she's going to win by a comfortable margin. Any chance of Trump winning this election, no matter how small, is enough to make us nervous.

Well, that too, but I was too lazy to add that.

[Badger]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

could be wrong but there have been tons of fear and doubt and panic in 2012 and obama is anything but not likable.

Badger's argument doesn't make any sense even on its own merits. Polling has shown that a much larger share of Clinton's supporters are voting for her to support her than say the same about Trump.

True, but those are mostly non-persuadable Clinton backers. There are a solid number who still see her as the lesser evil for now, but are still looking for a reason not to vote for her.

Mind you, Trump's the same way, though until recently most of the persuadables had already abandoned ship. Some are now climbing back on board.

[BlueSwan]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

I heard it was worse.

Depends on your definition. I am a liberal bed-wetter and at times in 2012 I was sure that Obama would lose. However, during the last few days I was fairly confident of an Obama win. Also, I wasn't nearly as distraught in 2012 as a Romney win wouldn't have meant the end of western civilization by any means.

[The Other Castro]

Barring huge events, there is a tendency for a natural PV lead range to develop over the course of an election. As seen in that 2012 Obama internal polling chart, this lead range probably won't deviate by more than 2 points in a given direction. My belief is that this race has the natural tendency of a 4-6 point lead for Clinton. In good news cycles, it's gone to 6-8 (with the expected polls sometimes in double digits). In bad news cycles, it's gone to 2-4 (with the expected polls sometimes tied).

[JerryArkansas]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

Early voting in Florida was only a week in 2012.  Those numbers are comparing about a day to well over a week.

[Speed of Sound]

So, that's what we're going to do today? We're going to panic? Not-so-great to mixed day yesterday. Let's see how the week keeps unfolding. Been a weird stretch with NV's Friday holiday, the weekend, and then Monday Halloween. And then of course all the oppo flying around and the fact that many GOTV rally stops are in coming (such as Clinton's upcoming in NV).

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-struggles-in-getting-african-americans-to-early-voting-polls-106931

Hispanics have cast 507K votes, 97% of the 2012 early vote, with still time to go.

Whites are at 80% of 2012 early vote.

Mixed-race/Asian are 76% of 2012 early vote.

Blacks are 55% of 2012 early vote.

Millennials (18-34) are 53% of their 2012 total

>65 are 97% of their 2012 total

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793438423877124096
Good news from TargetSmart regarding Florida.

1) With over 4 million ballots cast, GOP registrants outnumber Dems by 16k votes cast. That's a 0.4% advantage. However...

2) Almost 700k votes have been cast by Unaffiliated voters. And those voters skew heavily Dem, with a 13% modeled partisan advantage

3) Unaffiliated EV/AV are more likely to be Hispanic (22%), or Millennial (16%), and only 65% are white

4) Tomorrow AM we will release our latest @_TargetSmart and W&M tracking survey of Florida, including full breakouts of EV/AV.

5) I've seen the initial results, and I can say they will challenge the conventional wisdom of where the race stands. Tune in tomorrow!

[Speed of Sound]

And Ralston asks you to stop back from that ledge, my friend, in NV:

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And in fact he also just dropped his daily update:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

[PresidentTRUMP]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

Like how you dismissed Hillary's lead in the PA poll but celebrated McGinty's lead in the same poll? I guess we all have our blind spots...

Look I am fine with HC win as long as we get Senate and flip SCOTUS and I will continue to believe we could've done better with another nominee. We could've flipped the House with Biden.

Yes, I am very very very thankful the D's ran HRC and Not Joe Biden, Biden would have won in a landslide for sure.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793457148323737600

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  20m20 minutes ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Bradley Tallent
Today likely to be another bad day for Dems relative to rest. They usually do very well Wed-Fri. of second week, and last day usually big.

Also, Ralston says he'll make a definitive prediction on Sunday about Nevada.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793457148323737600

The female stats are actually quite encouraging.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793438423877124096
Good news from TargetSmart regarding Florida.

1) With over 4 million ballots cast, GOP registrants outnumber Dems by 16k votes cast. That's a 0.4% advantage. However...

2) Almost 700k votes have been cast by Unaffiliated voters. And those voters skew heavily Dem, with a 13% modeled partisan advantage

3) Unaffiliated EV/AV are more likely to be Hispanic (22%), or Millennial (16%), and only 65% are white

4) Tomorrow AM we will release our latest @_TargetSmart and W&M tracking survey of Florida, including full breakouts of EV/AV.

5) I've seen the initial results, and I can say they will challenge the conventional wisdom of where the race stands. Tune in tomorrow!

Interesting

[Ljube]

Was Democratic bed-wetting this bad in 2012? Don't remember.

I heard it was worse.

At least Romney actually led in the polls multiple times in October.

Well, I was here in 2012 and the bedwetting wasn't worse.

Dems were mostly confident of an Obama victory and I had a much harder time arguing that Romney would win.

[Eraserhead]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793457148323737600

The female stats are actually quite encouraging.

Those are white women though... in North Carolina.

[Speed of Sound]

All looks fine in CO:

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