The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

Of 998.2k Ds voted,

59.5% w

13.4% H

22.3% b

Of 1.01m Rs voted,

85.7% w

10.5% H

.7% b


https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791841359892213760


seems like a strong hispanic GOP vote right now...and an abysmal black vote.

Where is this?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Where is this?

pardon, still florida.

tons and tons of data....

[Dr. Arch]

Where is this?

pardon, still florida.

tons and tons of data....

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

[ApatheticAustrian]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

[Dr. Arch]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

Thanks. Please keep us updated. It's much appreciated

[psychprofessor]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

Thanks. Please keep us updated. It's much appreciated

As VBM stats are older and whiter, as each day of EIP takes place, the demos become more diverse. Look what happens after this weekend - you'll see hispanic and black percentages increase.

[Xing]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

I definitely would not assume all Republican-registered Hispanics in Florida are voting for Trump.

Yeah, that's probably the catch. I would bet a decent number of Latinos in Florida and places like Texas will be voting for Hillary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It makes sense that FL would have a few Hispanic Republicans. Cubans have usually voted GOP, but this might be the year when they finally realign.

[Holmes]

Florida still hasn't had one weekend of early voting yet. The numbers will go crazy over the next three days.

[Dr. Arch]

16 million mark has been passed, as per: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

It is currently 35% of the 2012 total with a big early vote weekend coming up.

[Ebsy]

I think we'll pretty much know where things stand after Souls to the Polls on Sunday.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 6h6 hours ago
Dems won Clark County by 3K votes today, but GOP had best day yet in only losing by that much. 44-34, Dems. Reg is 43-29. Dem lead now 36K.

0 replies 25 retweets 58 likes


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 7h7 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Tyler Dinucci

Actually, it's bigger than that. The 2,400 number is mail and early; in 2012, the Dem lead in Washoe was about 700 with both after a week.

Jon Ralston added,

[Chaddyr23]

schale's tweets are super-interesting but he seems a little bit vague (i understand that we are going to know much more after this weekend).....in general he says it is fine but not good enough right now.

if the dems overtake the GOP and start banking votes, i guess we can sleep better.

read between the lines, he's ecstatic

This and he's privy to much more information than we are.

I'm starting to worry. AA Hispanic turnout isn't where it needs to be at all

[Erich Maria Remarque]

BTW, is there usually any/big difference in AV/EV between rural compared and non-rural areas? If not, poor Trump

Anybody?

And the same applies to education. We clearly see a widining education/rural–urban gap in this election. If different groups have different patterns of early voting, it could explain Trump's lagging. At least partly.

That's why EV sample might be non-representetive of all voters, as 538 mentioned.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Retweeted (only the first one) by Nate Cohn, Upshot.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791836459506495488

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

NC 10/28:

[Erich Maria Remarque]

NC 10/28:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/791980869191733249

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

Here are the totals:

Vote By Mail: 127,298 votes, GOP won (42-37-21), or just under 6K votes
In Person Early Vote: 263,964 votes, Dems won (40-39-21) or just over 3K votes*

This brings us into total votes 2,864,666 with leading GOP up just over 14K votes. (+0.5%)

One other big picture number: There are almost 60,000 more Democrats in Florida with a vote by mail ballot that they have not returned.  In total, about 57.3% of Republican VBM ballot requests have been returned, compared to 52.6% of Democrats.

SIDE NOTE FROM STEVE TO DEMOCRATS:  RETURN YOUR DARN BALLOTS!

Hillsborough

We won both the early vote and the vote by mail tabulations, and now carry a 12,500 vote lead (+6.8%). And keep in mind, Hillsborough has correctly picked 19 of the last 20 Presidents.

I-4
In total for the day, 108,000 votes were cast in the I-4 counties, with D’s winning 41-38-21.
The I-4 counties have contributed nearly 800,000 ballots, or about 28% of all ballots cast in Florida, with Democrats holding a 42.4-37.5% (+38,000) lead.

Broward:  Democrats now lead by 69,900 votes, or 58-23% lead.

[libertpaulian]

Wowza...Virginia.

[The Other Castro]

Regarding PA and MI on the above chart:

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  20s21 seconds ago
Michael McDonald Retweeted Carrie Dann
PA shouldn't be on chart. An excuse-required state will have low single digits of early votes skewing older and Rep

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
MI also excuse required absentee voting. One of the excuses is that you're age 60 or older. Skews that state's numbers, too.

[BoAtlantis]

Status on OR

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/28/1587774/-One-more-state-where-Democratic-turnout-is-looking-good

In 2008 Barack Obama won 13 counties
In 2012, he only won 10 counties in the state, and four of the top seven in population.

"Registered Democrats currently have turned in more ballots than Republicans in 17 of Oregon’s 36 counties. Including all seven of the most populous counties. Currently Democratic turnout is at 14.8% and Republican turnout is 12.2%. This is not normal. Usually, unless it is a very good election for us, Republican turnout is at east as high as Democratic turnout."

So far 49.7% of voters are Democrats to 29.7% Republicans. In registered voters, Democrats lead 38.9% to 28.2%, so that 2.6% edge in turnout so far leads to us significantly outperforming registration.

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale

Here are the totals:

Vote By Mail: 127,298 votes, GOP won (42-37-21), or just under 6K votes
In Person Early Vote: 263,964 votes, Dems won (40-39-21) or just over 3K votes*

This brings us into total votes 2,864,666 with leading GOP up just over 14K votes. (+0.5%)

One other big picture number: There are almost 60,000 more Democrats in Florida with a vote by mail ballot that they have not returned.  In total, about 57.3% of Republican VBM ballot requests have been returned, compared to 52.6% of Democrats.

SIDE NOTE FROM STEVE TO DEMOCRATS:  RETURN YOUR DARN BALLOTS!

Hillsborough

We won both the early vote and the vote by mail tabulations, and now carry a 12,500 vote lead (+6.8%). And keep in mind, Hillsborough has correctly picked 19 of the last 20 Presidents.

I-4
In total for the day, 108,000 votes were cast in the I-4 counties, with D’s winning 41-38-21.
The I-4 counties have contributed nearly 800,000 ballots, or about 28% of all ballots cast in Florida, with Democrats holding a 42.4-37.5% (+38,000) lead.

Broward:  Democrats now lead by 69,900 votes, or 58-23% lead.

Another interesting point he made was that before in person voting started the electorate was 80% white, after 4 days of in person early voting its dropped to 72%.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/CNNJason/status/791789132603424768
10/27 5PM data
Overall, Dems up everywhere except North Carolina.

Florida
GOP up 0.3%
In 2008, they were up 6.8% (lack of 2012 data)

North Carolina
Dems up 18.4%.
In 2012, they were up 20.5%

Nevada
Dems up 11.3%
In 2012, they were up 10%

Colorado
Dems up 5.6%
In 2012, they were DOWN 1.7%

[ApatheticAustrian]

dems are going to win the coasts this time in unseen fashion.