Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Polling simulator:http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html?m=1

Predicted Items

Popular vote: 
Liberals:
PC:
NDP:
Greens:
Other/Independents:

Seats:
Liberals:
PC:
NDP:
Greens:
Other/Independents:

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean-
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell-
Kingston and the Islands-
Peterborough-

905 Belt
Ajax-
Oshawa-
Vaughan-Woodbridge-
King-Vaughan-
Brampton-East-
Brampton-North-
Mississauga-lake shore-
Mississauga-Streetsville-

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-
Scarborough Agincourt-
Scarborough Southwest-
Eglinton-Lawrence-
Willowdale-
York Centre-
Beaches-East York-
Davenport-
Toronto-centre
University-Rosedale-
Etobicoke North-
Etobicoke Lakeshore-
Etobicoke Center-
York South Weston-
Humber River Black Creek-

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington-
Oakville-
St Catherine’s-
Brantford-Brant-
Guelph-
Waterloo-
London North-Centre-

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury-
Sault Ste Marie-

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Popular vote:
Liberals:24.7%
PC:38.6%
NDP:31.3%
Greens:4%
Other/Independents:1.2%

Seats:
Liberals:12
PC:73
NDP:38
Greens:0
Other/Independents:0


Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- Liberal
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- PC
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre- Liberal
University-Rosedale- Liberal
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s- Liberal
Brantford-Brant-PC
Guelph- Liberal
Waterloo- NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- NDP

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Updated

Popular vote:
Liberals:21%
PC:34.5%
NDP:40.5%
Greens:4%
Other/Independents:1.2%

Seats:
Liberals:5
PC:54
NDP:64
Greens:0
Other/In


Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- NDP

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- NDP
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest-NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence-Liberal
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre- NDP
University-Rosedale-NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s- Liberal
Brantford-Brant-NDP
Guelph- NDP
Waterloo- NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- NDP

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Updated may do a few last edits on Wednesday night.

PV:
PC 38.1%
NDP 35.9%
Liberal 20.7%
Green 4.2%
Other 1.1%

Seats:
PC 73 seats
NDP 46 seats
Liberal 5 seats


Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton East- NDP
Brampton North- NDP
Mississauga-Lakeshore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-NDP
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto Centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines - NDP
Brantford-Brant- PC
Guelph- PC (vote split)
Waterloo- NDP
London North Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

Switching Hands (not listed)
Liberal to PC
Orléans
Barrie—Innisfil
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Durham
Markham—Stouffville
Markham—Thornhill
Markham—Unionville
Newmarket—Aurora
Pickering—Uxbridge
Richmond Hill
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Mississauga—Malton
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Don Valley North
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Milton
Oakville North—Burlington
Cambridge


Liberal to NDP
Ottawa Centre
Brampton South
Brampton Centre
Brampton West
Scarborough—Guildwood
Spadina—Fort York
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Thunder Bay—Superior North

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Final Prediction

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - PC
Ottawa Centre - NDP
Ottawa South - Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean - PC

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley North - Liberal
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - PC
Etobicoke North - PC
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood - NDP
Scarborough North - PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal
Toronto Centre - NDP
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - NDP
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - NDP
Durham - NDP
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville - PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - PC
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - PC
Whitby - NDP
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Chatham-Kent-Leamington - PC
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - NDP
Kitchener South-Hespeler - NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - PC
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - Liberal
Thunder Bay-Superior North - NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

PC 63 seat 37.8%
NDP 52 seat 36.1%
Liberal 8 seats 21.6%
Green 1 seat 3.7%