From Political Wire:
"Republicans fear that Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) has already squandered his chance to destroy former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) with negative advertising in the upcoming runoff election before the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee could step in and begin pummeling him," says the latest Evans-Novak Political Report. "Bonilla has stuck with positive ads until very late in the game. He polls just above 50 percent, which is a good sign, but Rodriguez is within striking distance."
"This race will provide a very important gauge of Republican prospects for winning the Hispanic vote in the future and over the long haul... If Rodriguez pulls this off, particularly after getting just 20 percent in the first round of the special election, it may give reason to fault Bonilla for being too positive with his campaign. But it may also signal such an unbreakable Democratic lean among San Antonio Hispanics that Republicans are a decade further away from being competitive than they thought."
Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report notes that turnout in the middle of the holiday season -- with voting on "a significant holiday for Latino Catholics known as el Día de La Virgen de Guadalupe" -- may be a problem for Rodriguez. However, while Bonilla "may indeed hold on to his seat on December 12, this race is not the slam dunk that many thought it would be."
The run off is on December 12.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/12/06/can_democrats_take_tx23.html
