VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Hydera]

Not tuesday yet but....

[Hydera]

Falls Church turnout 2 hours after polls opened

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Nearly a quarter this early?

Whole state is going to get rain later in the afternoon so it makes sense.

[Hydera]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.  I think Northam still pulls it out in the end but a margin of 3.5-4% at the most to just 2-2.5% with the rain.

[Hydera]

Sigh, looks like its going to rain for the rest of the day in Nova.

YES!!! SOME NORTHAM VOTERS STAY HOME, GILLESPIE HAS A SHOT!!!

YES!!! DEMOCRACY IS SUBVERTED SO I CAN CONTROL WOMEN’S PRIVATES!!!

LOWER TAXES(FOR THE RICH)
PUT THOSE DARN TRANNIES AND HOMOS AND IMMIGRANTS AND BLACKS AND ETC MINORITIES IN THEIR PLACE
THEOCRACY NOW!!!
NO TO MEDICAID EXPANSION



I swear the amount of low to middle income voters who think their taxes are going to get lowered when most of the benefits will go to those with higher incomes....

[Hydera]

[Hydera]

http://www.camvista.com/watch-live-video/america/usa/washington_dc_capitol_hill_live_streaming_video_webcam.html


From the looks of it its between light and medium rain. But Still rain. probably costed Northam about say.... 20-50k votes which if the race turns out to be far more tight then we think would have costed him the election.

[Hydera]

Steve Kornacki‏ @SteveKornacki  18s18 seconds ago
Virginia exit (first wave) -- composition of electorate
White college degree 43%
White non-college 26%

'16 exit:
White college: 38%
White non-college 29%

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/928025635787853825

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html


Compared to 2013, the percentage of white voters went from 72% to 69% but its too early to know if Northam win just because of that.

[Hydera]

Not sure if this was posted earlier, but in the first wave of VA exits:

"Democrats accounted for 39% of voters in Virginia, vs. 31% Republicans and 29% independents, per preliminary exit polls."

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/928027732000296961

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html


37% back in 2013, now 39% for dems.


32% back in 2013, now 31% for reps.

31% for independents back in 2013 and now 29%.

[Hydera]

How do things bode for the state legislature?

Hoping Danica roem gets in along with the other dems.

[Hydera]

So votes come in like this.
1. Rural VA
2. Richmond
3. Hampton Roads
4. Loudon/Prince William/Stafford
5. Arlington/Alexandria
5. Fairfax

>1. Rural VA


hold on to your butts.

[Hydera]

How should republicans react to this race if Gillespie loses?

Should they be scared it means a storm is brewing in a a year?

Or should they say it was expected?

It doesn't mean anything for either side.

T-Mac won VA in 2013, and yet looked what happened to the Democrats next year during the mid-terms.

2013 was a special case because of the government shutdown. Without the shutdown then Cuccinelli would had won by about 0.5-1.5%

[Hydera]

When was the last time a D won statewide by 10 points or more? I honestly have no idea. Chuck Robb in 1988, maybe? Northam winning by 9 would be unprecedented in modern Virginia.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=1985&f=0&off=5


Election that would be weird today where the democrat got 10% margin by also winning a ton of rural counties.  Also there was major flooding that day and its possible without it the dem margin could had been 11-14%.

[Hydera]

HOLD ON TO YOUR BUTTS

[Hydera]

Reminder to everyone who might freak out, its totally natural for dems to be down until 80-90% of precincts reporting yet end up wining by strong margins.

Given how Rural Virginia keeps trending more GOP and Suburban/Urban Virginia keeps trending more Dem. The early results will probably give people a heartattack.

[Hydera]

EDMENTUM or GILLESPIEMENTUM?



Also does this mean times time for the DNC to dump every primary and just give the candidacy to every pro-bernie candidate because the solution to democrats problems is to bernie-ish candidate everywhere?

[Hydera]

I think you all owe Ralph a written apology for saying he was a terrible candidate.

Something something perriello something something bernie something something ossoff.

[Hydera]

hemmmmm.....

[Hydera]

Berniecrat Lee Carter defeated the Virginia House Republican Whip.

Oh right, Berniecrats can't win in Virginia.

F**k off.

[Hydera]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2017&off=5&elect=0&f=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2009&f=0&off=5&elect=0


btw the total gubernatorial margin for republicans in 2009 and democrats this year is exactly the same.

[Hydera]

I was rather surprised by how poorly Northam did in the rural black counties in SE Virginia.

a lot of those rural black counties is also 30-40% white. These voters actually used to vote more democrat than other whites nearby more whiter counties. Since Trump they've voted more like their neighboring white counterparts in 60-70% white areas, aka more republican. So black turnout is pretty average but whites there become more republican.  Pre-2014 they were probably 30-35% dem. after their probably 20-30%.