AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why is this race getting so much less attention that ga 6 and pa 18?

Cuz the republican is easily going to win it

[McGovernForPrez]

Also Emerson is the polling firm that had Moore + 8, so they seem to be a junk polling firm anyways. Idk if the firm Tipi used is good but it had the race at 46-46 with 8% people refusing to say so that's probably junk as well.

Emerson is such a junk tier firm. It's 2018 and they still don't poll by cell phone. Also it's worth noting that as a result of this they tend to lean Republican.

[MAINEiac4434]

Anyone on the ground?

[Bidenworth2020]

new rep poll, 25-19 lesko LMFAO

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/988546432868155398

[GeorgiaModerate]

new rep poll, 25-19 lesko LMFAO

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/988546432868155398

The other 56 are for Jeb!

[Nyvin]

new rep poll, 25-19 lesko LMFAO

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/988546432868155398

56% undecided?   Did they go ask the forest people who they're voting for or something?

[ON Progressive]

new rep poll, 25-19 lesko LMFAO

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/988546432868155398

There are bad polls, there are junk polls, and then there is that.

[Adam Griffin]

Just making sure we're prepared for the big day!

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

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Is everybody ready for the ride? Because it never ends!

Get your panic and popcorn ready, and be prepared to overreact to every single morsel of information as it comes in!

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- it's Election Eve, otherwise known as an Atlas National Holiday, so I'll give a few updates on my standard CD-08 Turnout sheet, and my standard LD sheet....

So here are the updated numbers for all Early Voting Ballots received through EOD Friday 4/20/18, or basically the end of "Early Voting"....

There may be an update tomorrow to include ballots mailed in, but received until EOD Monday, but I wouldn't bet on it.... either way I will be working, so not able to post until hopefully by the time we start to see a major EV election dump, if not then a bit later...

So for data modelling purposes I'll be forced to use numbers for estimations of EV by Party REG based upon these numbers, and whatever additional EV classified ballots might show up if there is an update tomorrow from Maricopa County here, y'all will need to data mine yourselves....  ...

http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics



So at this point I'll be using a (27.8 D- 48.5 R- 23.8 I)  model for any additional posts I might make tonight to calculate the EV numbers by Party REG, and whatever spare change might be left (Ballots received by Mail Today/Tomorrow, Ballots Dropped off at the Maricopa County Elections Office, Military Ballots etc), might round off into the ED numbers.

Top-line numbers appear to indicate that this will be a relatively high turnout Special Election, considering that already 35% of "Active Registered Voters" have cast ballots....

Additionally among Registered voters 39% of Dems and 40% of Reps, and 26% of Independents have already voted.

If we look at the approved early voters within the district, 51% of Democrats, 52% of Republicans, and ~ 40% of Independents have already voted.

Enough talk, now time to take a peek at the EV Turnout and Vote Share by LD, as well as a few recent major elections...



So, for anyone that has been following my posts on AZ CD-08 closely, one way of trying to break Macro level data into more "bite sized" pieces, is to look at AZ-CD '08 by LD's, rather than the much more granular and extremely confusing trees and groves within the forest approach, which is precinct level analysis....

Although much of my focus on this Special Election regarding the need for Dems to make up for anticipated heavy 'Pub raw margins in LD-22, the most Republican part of the district by voting history is actually LD-01 accounting for roughly 7.3-7.8% of the Total Vote in a typical election.

This is an extremely affluent and College Educated part of CD-08, AND Republican turnout is very lackluster, even compared to the '14 AZ-GOV election.

This obviously starts to raise to question to what extent REG 'Pubs and Lean 'Pub Indies will swing heavily Democrat in this election....

If Registered Indies that typically vote and heavily Republican at that are sitting this one out, certainly raises some questions about the composition Registered Indies that are showing up to vote...

Basic concept is that Reg pubs more likely to sit out election than flip, Pub leaning Indies that vote flip hard Dem....

Now look at LD-15, (6% of LD CD-08) in a typical Election... Look at the Rep/Dem from current RV vs EV numbers....

Does anyone expect that these numbers won't increase further in the Democrats favor once we have Election Day numbers?

Now it starts to get tricky....

LD-20:

I'm not seeing the Indie numbers yet popping up yet based on EV returns in a 52% Trump LD that went +5% "Anti Sheriff Joe), to convince me yet that the Dem candidate will be able to win this district by sufficient margins to offset what we should anticipate as pretty hefty raw vote numbers from LD-22 (+28 Trump, +12% "Sheriff Joe", +24% Flake) in an extremely high Vote Share LD.

LD-21 :

We are seeing similar issues with Indy Turnout, especially in the most Democratic Precincts within the District.


We have major issues Democratic Party Turnout numbers in the relatively small number of 2016 HRC Districts (LD-04, LD-29, LD-30)

Now, I would imagine that once we get ED numbers, these LD's should most likely match, or potentially narrowly exceed the '14 Vote Share by LD, but still even if there are major swings among REG Pubs and Indies in these places, low Turnout = Wasted Votes and poor GOTV among those precincts with the highest % of REG DEMs, lowest % of REG PUBS, that also happen to be some of the youngest, most working-class, and most Latino precincts within CD-08.

Still, we can't automatically extrapolate LD Vote Share solely by EVs, but the strategic calculation of the Tipirneni campaign to focus heavily upon a mixture of issues heavily appealing to the heavily Anglo and older/ Upper Middle-Class voting population might have had a converse reaction, in terms of depressing Democratic turnout among those types of voters that show up generally only every four years....

IDK, in this type of district obviously running as a Moderate Democrat is obviously the only path towards a hypothetical marginal victory, but still I'm looking at all of these Base Democratic votes left on the table, I'm really starting to wonder if the DNC and the Dem campaign was so obsessed with flipping Pubs and Indies, that there wasn't enough effort invested in Working Class Dem and Indy Latinos, to avoid some type of public optics in a +5% Sheriff Joe CD that the Dems were "trying to steal votes", or whatever cray-cray some folks believe...

Went slightly OT there, but is definitely relevant, considering the current Turnout numbers we are seeing currently from the most heavily Latino precincts within the District, and votes are earned and not granted...

[NOVA Green]

How much did Flake win this district by in 2012?

Apologies for the delayed response, as I just saw this early today when I was sipping a few cups of coffee before I had to work a long factory shift....

There might be a small number of precincts that shifted, but looks to be (39.1 D- 56.0 R- 4.9 Other)...

Other is basically a Libertarian Party Candidate, many of whose voters were likely Republican leaning voters who voted 3rd Party because they saw Flake as "too Liberal" on multiple issues....

[NOVA Green]

Nova, without my directly replying to your long, though very very informative and interesting, posts, about what share of Republican voters defecting from Lesco, combined with what share of democratic voters Lesco picks up, do you calculate as necessary for Lesco to lose if she only carries 40% of independent voters? I really don't know the details on the ground for registered Independents in Arizona and this District in particular tend to vote, but based on polls I have seen nationwide at least, a 60/40 split for a Democrat seems quite doable in this political environment.

Very good question, and one I have been struggling with for quite a few weeks now wading through the precinct details of a part of the country that I am not especially well acquainted with...

We don't really have many data points to examine within this CD when it comes to swings among Registered Republican and Indie Voters, where elections were anything approximating a close election....

Still, we do have the 2016 Presidential Exit Polls from Arizona, where roughly 7% of Self-Identified Dems voted Trump and 7% of Self-Identified Pubs voted HRC, and Indies went +12 Dem....

This is not necessarily indicative of votes for President in AZ-CD-08 by Party Registration....

So my "High Dem Model" went along the lines of Registered Democrats voting (97-3 D), Registered Republicans voting (10-90 R), and Registered Independents voting (60-40 D).

If we use this math, currently Lesco is ahead in EV numbers (83k R- 71k D)   +12 k R or (54-46 R) with the Early Voting ballots in the bank....

Now a brief caveat:

1.) It is entirely plausible, although unlikely, that Early Voting Republicans tend to be much "swingier" than imagined here, or that Republican leaning Indies are sitting at home to an extent where the Indie EV vote will break much harder Dem than 60-40.

So let's say that Lesco's numbers are marginally worse among REG Pubs and Indies, so she's only sitting with a 10k EV Raw Margin lead in the bank?

Now it starts to become a slightly more competitive game....

Turnout is key, and let's start looking at how many votes might be remaining come Election Day...

Let's say for example final Turnout numbers are 200k or even possibly 220k....

The former would actually not be that unusual considering the Turnout levels thus far assuming roughly 20% of Votes are cast on Election Day, the latter would be a bit unusual, considering that the ED numbers were roughly 30% of the TV here in '12 and 20% in '16....

Still, final EV numbers include various ballots not yet included in the AZ EV numbers, still we are likely looking at something between 46k and 66k ballots not yet included in the official final Total Vote numbers once all the ballots are counted after ED....

Needless to say, if Dems are going to make up a 10-12k vote gap with 80% of the ballots in, the numbers would have to be something like 70% of outstanding ballots (Low Turnout Model), or 57% (Higher Turnout Model)....

NOW.... one thing to consider, and honestly is not something that I have studied in terms of EV vs ED in AZ, is how these numbers break down when compared and contrasted against "Late EV VbM" numbers....

So in Oregon we usually see VbM surges at the very beginning of voting season and at the very end....

In AZ, looks like ED is the surge at the end....

So, the past few days of EV in AZ are showing numbers more like (30-34 D / 42-45 R- and 24 IND)...

Now if ED numbers start looking more like 34 D- 34 R- 32 I, with REG Reps and IND (Or a few variants thereof) and throw in some even larger swings among Indies, we might be looking at a horse race....

Not sure if that answered your question, but "Indies" are a bit of a "catch-all" so how that plays in places like Sun City/ Sun City West, vs Upper Income Middle-Aged Anglo Burbs, and heavily Working/Middle Class places with a much higher Latino Population with a dominant Anglo voting base, becomes a bit complicated IMHO....

[Brittain33]

Remember when senior citizens were a Democratic voting bloc and places like Hernando and Pasco County in Florida leaned more Dem than average? Feels like a lifetime ago.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Remember when senior citizens were a Democratic voting bloc and places like Hernando and Pasco County in Florida leaned more Dem than average? Feels like a lifetime ago.

You can thank the GI Generation for that.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls will close at 10 ET tonight. Results will be available beginning at 11 ET at: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/23/17263138/arizona-special-election-live-results-lesko-tipirneni

[Brittain33]

I'm still not feeling the closeness others are feeling. It may be a crazy year for Republicans, but Lesko is a better candidate than Saccone or Moore and this is still Trump territory with Trumpy seniors. My prediction is 57-43 and I'm sticking with it.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I think the race will be within a 5% margin. No idea who will win tonight.

[Badger]

I'll call it single digits for Lesco, though I wouldn't be shocked if it broke 10 points

[Xing]

Lesko probably wins by mid-high single digits, or possibly low double digits. I’ll sure be looking forward to Trump/Republicans spinning this like crazy... “AMAZING come-from-behind victory for underdog and rising star Debbie Lesko! Beat the Democratic spending machine in a very competitive district! #NoBlueWave”

[Nyvin]

Lesko probably wins by mid-high single digits, or possibly low double digits. I’ll sure be looking forward to Trump/Republicans spinning this like crazy... “AMAZING come-from-behind victory for underdog and rising star Debbie Lesko! Beat the Democratic spending machine in a very competitive district! #NoBlueWave”

"Rising Star Debbie Lesko wins AZ-8 by yuge 7% margin!! Republicans SURGING ahead of midterms!!one!1!"

[President Johnson]

Lesko probably wins by mid-high single digits, or possibly low double digits. I’ll sure be looking forward to Trump/Republicans spinning this like crazy... “AMAZING come-from-behind victory for underdog and rising star Debbie Lesko! Beat the Democratic spending machine in a very competitive district! #NoBlueWave”

"Rising Star Debbie Lesko wins AZ-8 by yuge 7% margin!! Republicans SURGING ahead of midterms!!one!1!"

60+ GOP senate seats guaranteed after 2018....

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Looks like basically no one is voting on election day. I could see Lesko winning by up to 12, but I'm going to stick with Lesko + 8.

Anything under double digits is a good result for democrats imo. There just really isn't a saving grace for democrats in this district.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

new rep poll, 25-19 lesko LMFAO

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/988546432868155398

The other 56 are for Jeb!

We need this map ASAP.

My guess is a narrow Lesko win. Probably by 3-5%

[Matty]

Wow, there is not a single precinct  turnout tweet in this thread

Total silence by reporters on the ground

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow, there is not a single precinct  turnout tweet in this thread

Total silence by reporters on the ground

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988857632986288129

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988858653007527937

Looks like basically no one is voting on election day

[Sestak]

Wow, there is not a single precinct  turnout tweet in this thread

Total silence by reporters on the ground

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988857632986288129

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/988858653007527937

Looks like basically no one is voting on election day

Welp, there goes the tranquility.