Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[IceSpear]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/undisclosed-deal-guaranteed-roy-moore-180000-a-year-for-part-time-work-at-charity/2017/10/11/5f56679e-a9de-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_foundation-1210pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.67bc93d73731

Oops.

Is this likely to have any effect on the race, or will Moore's supporters not care?

Why would the same people who stuck with Moore (or Trump, or...) through the countless stuff way more horrible and outrageous than this be moved by it? The answer is they won't be.

Dems obviously have no chance here (sane). The only intrigue is Moore's victory margin.

[IceSpear]

Not really an "outlier" if you look at Jones' percentage. He's been pretty consistently in the 42% range for awhile now. The margin in polls is being affected solely by those "Alabama Indys" who are almost all Republicans and who just like to pretend they're thoughtful, rational creatures.

You see the same thing to some degree in Trump's national numbers: his approval number is considerably more static in the aggregate than his disapproval number. there's a segment of people who basically go from "disapprove" to "not sure" and back again (most of whom would still vote for him if the election were held today).

Yeah, it's literally impossible to be "unsure" of whether you approve or disapprove or Trump at this point unless you've been living under a hundred boulders with zero access to technology. Even while actively trying to avoid anything related to politics I still heard about him constantly. "Unsure" = approve but too embarrassed to say it. Which would put his average at 44-56, which makes perfect sense considering he got 46% of the vote and has lost minimal if any support since then (deplorables are unwinnable.)

I thought it was Georgia "independents" that liked to pretend though, not Alabama ones. Alabama ones tend to be pretty upfront...

[IceSpear]

If only anyone cared what Bill Kristol thinks.

Has anyone gotten David French's take yet? lol

[IceSpear]

If only anyone cared what Bill Kristol thinks.

Has anyone gotten David French's take yet? lol

You've really changed from last year. You used to be optimistic about dems everywhere except OK, KY, WV - and those 3 were understandable since you hate coal. Now you've taken an amazingly pessimistic take on anything to do with the democratic party.

One thing I've been very consistent on is Bill Kristol's irrelevance. Just look at my posts in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=237743.25

[IceSpear]

If only anyone cared what Bill Kristol thinks.

Has anyone gotten David French's take yet? lol

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/452760/conservatives-guide-2017-2018-nba-season

Here's a horrible NRO piece on basketball in which David French calls Roy Moore, "Crazy enough to win, crazy enough to lose.

Haha, nice. I wasn't actually expecting a reply to that rhetorical.

[IceSpear]

Doug Jones: "with the exception of college football, there is a hesitance to say you are from Alabama"

[url][http://www.breitbart.com/video/2017/10/20/doug-jones-exception-college-football-theres-hesitancy-say-im-alabama//url]

Massive FF!

Doug Jones: "with the exception of college football, there is a hesitance to say you are from Alabama"

[url][http://www.breitbart.com/video/2017/10/20/doug-jones-exception-college-football-theres-hesitancy-say-im-alabama//url]

True comment, similar one could be said for west virginia minus the football

So true.

[IceSpear]

That could easily hurt Jones. People tend to take pride in the state they live in.

Jones has such little room to mess up.

I think the only people likely to care very much about this are already planning to vote for Moore.

I hate the double standard where republicans can get away with saying their country/state is terrible and we can do better. But if a democrat does it its automatically a travesty.

Heck Trump said the people of Iowa were stupid because cruz won and they voted for him by a sizable margin in the general election.

People say Democrats get slaughtered in West Virginia because of me or "elitist liberals like me" who look down on the state. Last time I checked, Republicans bash Massachusetts, Vermont, etc. far more than Democrats bash West Virginia, but it hasn't stopped them from winning there.

Like a staple of Bush's 2004 campaign was about how horrible Massachusetts is lol. Have Democrats ever done a similar strategy with West Virginia, or ANY state for that matter?

[IceSpear]

That could easily hurt Jones. People tend to take pride in the state they live in.

Jones has such little room to mess up.

I think the only people likely to care very much about this are already planning to vote for Moore.

I hate the double standard where republicans can get away with saying their country/state is terrible and we can do better. But if a democrat does it its automatically a travesty.

Heck Trump said the people of Iowa were stupid because cruz won and they voted for him by a sizable margin in the general election.

People say Democrats get slaughtered in West Virginia because of me or "elitist liberals like me" who look down on the state. Last time I checked, Republicans bash Massachusetts, Vermont, etc. far more than Democrats bash West Virginia, but it hasn't stopped them from winning there.

Like a staple of Bush's 2004 campaign was about how horrible Massachusetts is lol. Have Democrats ever done a similar strategy with West Virginia, or ANY state for that matter?

At the federal level, they do get slaughtered because of people like you.

Tomblin wasn't a fake Democrat and was a relatively popular two term governor. And the number of Democrats in the WV legislature is comparable to the number of Republicans in the Massachussets state legislature. Hell, 21% of lower house members are Republican in MA, while 36% of lower house members are Democrats in WV.

And contrary to what you may think, Manchin will win re-election.

Tomblin and Manchin were re-elected in 2012, at the same time Obama was re-elected. Obama's re-election was the last straw for Racist WV Hicks, who will now never vote for any member of the anti-white hate group (i.e. Democratic Party) again unless they're a Republican mole like Jim Justice.

Manchin is going to get Blanched/Thompsoned/Manchined (will be a new term in a year.) His chances of winning are about as high as Ted Strickland sweeping the WV-esque parts of Ohio were.

[IceSpear]

That could easily hurt Jones. People tend to take pride in the state they live in.

Jones has such little room to mess up.

I think the only people likely to care very much about this are already planning to vote for Moore.

I hate the double standard where republicans can get away with saying their country/state is terrible and we can do better. But if a democrat does it its automatically a travesty.

Heck Trump said the people of Iowa were stupid because cruz won and they voted for him by a sizable margin in the general election.

People say Democrats get slaughtered in West Virginia because of me or "elitist liberals like me" who look down on the state. Last time I checked, Republicans bash Massachusetts, Vermont, etc. far more than Democrats bash West Virginia, but it hasn't stopped them from winning there.

Like a staple of Bush's 2004 campaign was about how horrible Massachusetts is lol. Have Democrats ever done a similar strategy with West Virginia, or ANY state for that matter?

At the federal level, they do get slaughtered because of people like you.

Tomblin wasn't a fake Democrat and was a relatively popular two term governor. And the number of Democrats in the WV legislature is comparable to the number of Republicans in the Massachussets state legislature. Hell, 21% of lower house members are Republican in MA, while 36% of lower house members are Democrats in WV.

And contrary to what you may think, Manchin will win re-election.

Tomblin and Manchin were re-elected in 2012, at the same time Obama was re-elected. Obama's re-election was the last straw for Racist WV Hicks, who will now never vote for any member of the anti-white hate group (i.e. Democratic Party) again unless they're a Republican mole like Jim Justice.

Manchin is going to get Blanched/Thompsoned/Manchined (will be a new term in a year.) His chances of winning are about as high as Ted Strickland sweeping the WV-esque parts of Ohio were.

I will concede it is possible Manchin loses, but if he does, it will be far from a blow out.

TFW when IceSpear comes back as the mirror image of JFern but about WV.

What do you mean? I've always disliked WV, but I ramped bashing it into overdrive in early 2016 when I saw how badly some people were triggered (and still are, apparently) over a single insulting comment directed toward it. Made even funnier by the fact that literally nobody cares if you bash any other state like Florida, New Jersey, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc. Only West Virginia is a precious little special snowflake that needs a safe space, LOL the irony.

Hell, I've bashed Alabama almost as much as West Virginia since returning due to the Roy Moore stuff, and haven't heard a peep from anyone about it (some people even joined in bashing it!)

this is the guy that prosecuted the Klan. The actual Klan.

In other words, he's doomed in Alabama.

If I made this comment about West Virginia, at least 5 posters would have berated me for it, lol. Even though they literally had a KKK Senator, though I digress.

[IceSpear]

Only on atlas does the AL senate thread devolve into a discussion about WV.

My general rule of thumb is that I don't bash any state/district/county etc, because either way, it's unproductive. Now before anyone calls me an "MD coastal elitist", Trump won my precinct by double-digits, so I'm not exactly a "coastal elitist".

The main attraction in bashing constituencies that are considered the "other" is that it riles up the core base. The GOP (and to a lesser extent, Democrats) have learned that stoking cultural divisions is good for short-term political gain, but no one thinks in the long term these days, so it's unwise as a Democrat to bash states like AL and WV, and vice versa.

Getting back to the original point, I'll agree that what Jones said was a bit of a gaffe, but in a low-turnout special election, who knows if it'll matter. Either way, it would've been better if he hadn't said that.

Of course, maybe this was actually calculated, and what Jones said is what a lot of Alabamans are thinking.

Turning a state/city into a bogeyman is definitely strategic long-term. Why do you think Republicans do so well when they run against city and coastal elites? Democrats would be wise to make a bogeyman of a state where they're never going to win like Alabama, just like Republicans do to Massachusetts and California. It's not like Doug Jones has a serious shot at becoming a long-term senator. Democrats would be well-advised to brand their opponents as "no different than an Alabama Republican" in suburban districts. I guarantee you the median voter in one of those Romney-Clinton seats would have a negative view of the stereotypical Alabama Republican.

I don't think this would work.

Republicans can get away with this sort of thing because they are punching up (cities=elites). If Democrats do that with rural areas, it is them punching down. It just looks mean-spitted (even though a lot of them are just awful people).

Cities are also poor minorities, so how is that not punching down? Of course, that just makes it a great twofer for Republicans. I do think the hicks need be taken down a peg though. They never stop bashing Americans who live in urban areas, but the second you target them they have a spastic snowflake safe space SJW triggered meltdown.

[IceSpear]

Only on atlas does the AL senate thread devolve into a discussion about WV.

My general rule of thumb is that I don't bash any state/district/county etc, because either way, it's unproductive. Now before anyone calls me an "MD coastal elitist", Trump won my precinct by double-digits, so I'm not exactly a "coastal elitist".

The main attraction in bashing constituencies that are considered the "other" is that it riles up the core base. The GOP (and to a lesser extent, Democrats) have learned that stoking cultural divisions is good for short-term political gain, but no one thinks in the long term these days, so it's unwise as a Democrat to bash states like AL and WV, and vice versa.

Getting back to the original point, I'll agree that what Jones said was a bit of a gaffe, but in a low-turnout special election, who knows if it'll matter. Either way, it would've been better if he hadn't said that.

Of course, maybe this was actually calculated, and what Jones said is what a lot of Alabamans are thinking.

Turning a state/city into a bogeyman is definitely strategic long-term. Why do you think Republicans do so well when they run against city and coastal elites? Democrats would be wise to make a bogeyman of a state where they're never going to win like Alabama, just like Republicans do to Massachusetts and California. It's not like Doug Jones has a serious shot at becoming a long-term senator. Democrats would be well-advised to brand their opponents as "no different than an Alabama Republican" in suburban districts. I guarantee you the median voter in one of those Romney-Clinton seats would have a negative view of the stereotypical Alabama Republican.

I don't think this would work.

Republicans can get away with this sort of thing because they are punching up (cities=elites). If Democrats do that with rural areas, it is them punching down. It just looks mean-spitted (even though a lot of them are just awful people).

Cities are also poor minorities, so how is that not punching down? Of course, that just makes it a great twofer for Republicans. I do think the hicks need be taken down a peg though. They never stop bashing Americans who live in urban areas, but the second you target them they have a spastic snowflake safe space SJW triggered meltdown.

It is.

But Republicans get away with it because the beltway press doesn't give a **** about poor minorities.

But go after poor hicks in rural areas and the media loses their collective minds. It is a double standard that Democrats will never win.

Yeah, you're probably right. Dems will never overcome the double standards and false equivalencies unless they call them out though. If anything they'll only get worse. Just look at how the media struggled mightily to justify why Hillary's deplorables comment made her "just as bad as Trump."

[IceSpear]

Jones can win.

Alabama is not Virginia.

Yeah, this would be like Republicans saying "Maxine Waters will lose" in 2010.

[IceSpear]

I knew something scandalous from Moore's past would surface. I hope he wins now more than ever so that it proves how deplorable the voters are.

Don't worry, you'll certainly get your wish considering it's Alabama. lol

I wonder if this might make it closer than expected though.

[IceSpear]

Alabama would rather elect a corrupt sexual predator then a generic Democrat.

Not even a generic Democrat. A civil rights attorney that fought the KKK (granted, this is probably a negative in Alabama.)

[IceSpear]

The devil made him do it. Thank God Moore found Jesus Christ just in the nick of time.

Meanwhile, Moore would probably support the death penalty for a black teenager caught with a bag of weed.

[IceSpear]

I’m calling fake news on this story,IF this were true then why didn’t these women come out and reveal this back in 2000 or 2012 or before the primary during the runoff oh right because it’s fake news!

I'm glad you posted. It's important for the forum to see how a majority of Alabama voters will view this story.

[IceSpear]

In the (unlikely IMO) event that the party would consider replacing Moore as the nominee, it's too late:

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We could stop someone who sexually exploited young girls from being sent to the Senate but we already started the printer so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Moore would have to voluntarily take himself off the ballot, right? Considering his history, the chances of that happening are next to 0.

[IceSpear]

Also, I can't wait to see Senate Republicans welcome a pedophile into the chamber while simultaneously demanding Menendez be immediately expelled if he's convicted.

[IceSpear]

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That could work. Get enough democrats and sane republicans behind him and Strange could pull it off.

Wouldn't that just be more likely to elect Moore by splitting the sane vote? Alabama is not Alaska.

[IceSpear]

I just dropped $500 on Roy Moore on PredictIt. I'm gonna get rich

While I don't doubt this is Moore's race to lose, I'd be too afraid of Martha Coakely the redux to drop that kind of money.

I mean, I hope I'm wrong. But I'm of the belief that Moore could rape  a child on television or hold a Klan rally and he'd have a 100% chance at winning

Just about the only thing he could do that would hurt his chances is if he came out as gay.

Then he'd win by 10 instead of 15?

[IceSpear]

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That could work. Get enough democrats and sane republicans behind him and Strange could pull it off.

Not a chance.  Also, I'm not sure why everyone seems to think Moore is still gonna win.  I mean, ignoring the fact that a bunch of folks here are just using this thread to be obnoxious trolls, Jones is probably favored at this point.

Do you think Greedo and krazen don't represent the vast majority of Alabama Republicans? If anything they might be more moderate and sane, lol.

[IceSpear]

Predictit right now:

Moore .49 (-.40)
Jones .39 (+.26)
Strange .17 (+.16)

Buy Moore and Moore shares!

Okay seriously, we all need to make multiple PredictIt accounts and MAX OUT ON MOORE!

[IceSpear]

Give it a week, he'll be forgiven.

This is not the sort of issue that just goes away.

He's already been forgiven by Jesus Christ, and that's all that matters. Who are you to judge?

[IceSpear]

Quick, someone check if Doug Jones has ever sent any emails!

[IceSpear]

The way things are going, I would not be surprised for the Senate to expel Moore and just have Alabama do this whole thing over again. It's a zero-risk move for the GOP: they get to keep the Senate seat and they don't have to have a pedophile in their ranks.

lol, getting expelled by the Senate would be a perfect career ender for Moore.