2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[MaxQue]

Has there ever been so few seat changes in Quebec?

We're talking one confirmed, and maybe two, seat changes (Châteauguay-Lacolle flipped Liberal to Bloc, and Brome-Missisquoi could flip the same way, but it hasn't been called yet with the Bloc narrowly leading).

1-2 seat changes seems completely unheard of, at least in recent elections, for such an unpredictable and volatile province that is subject to massive swings.

Not surprising, considering the popular vote.

Liberal 33.5% (-0.8 )
Bloc 32.1% (-0.3)
Conservative 18,7% (+2.7)
NDP 9.8% (-1.0)
PPC 2.7% (+1.2)
Green 1.5% (-3.0)

[MaxQue]

Will the Bloc win their 35th riding in Brome-Missisquoi today?

As they are currently leading there, it would be 34th.

[MaxQue]

What did Bernadette Jordan do to annoy the fishermen?

In short, nothing (when they wanted her to do something).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Mi%27kmaq_lobster_dispute

[MaxQue]

Briefly looking at my home riding of Essex and the areas of strength for each party.

The CPC did well in the rural polls but the NDP kept most of them surprisingly close; it was the wealthier parts of LaSalle and Lakeshore that gave Chris Lewis his best margins. The NDP's strength was concentrated in the working class sections of LaSalle plus the downtown small town polls. The Liberals put up strong numbers in LaSalle and Lakeshore with a decent showing from ancestral Liberals in the Kingsville downtown polls. Nothing too surprising from the usual parties except the unusual NDP strength in rural polls, but PPC support didn't fit the expected patterns.

They didn't do particularly well in rural polls (except in Kingsville) and received very low support from the suburbs but had surprisingly high support in the NDP supporting towns (except Amherstburg). Rather than PPC support correlating with high CPC support it seems to have be a strong inverse of areas with Liberal support. In Lakeshore and Kingsville it's almost uncanny how perfectly their respective areas of strength and weakness match up. Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex seem to show the same pattern: strength in the towns and smaller cities plus consistently high support overall in the region bounded by Chatham, Wallaceburg and Kingsville. If it isn't a glitch they actually won a poll in downtown Leamington and came very close in several Chatham and Wallaceburg polls.

There are a lot of Mennonites in the area but I'm still not sure what the explanation is for such a concentrated region of support.

Some of it sounds like a sequel to "promiscuous populism"--like, that which made the town of Essex, normally a NDP stronghold, go for the Canadian Alliance during the NDP's low ebb of 2000.

But what I'm also finding upon initial glimpses is that PPC also tended to overperform in the advance polls--in CKL, they won one for Leamington, and almost won one for Wheatley.  And you find that advance overperformance in such places as the Mennonite strongholds in Manitoba--and in fact, PPC *won* the Group 2 Special Voting Rules balloting in Portage-Lisgar...

Besides the Mennonites the other demographic that the PPC did oddly well with are Francophones outside of Québec. They actually won Val Gagné and Matachewan in Timmins-James Bay outright and the rest of their best polls in northern Ontario seem to generally be in Francophone areas. They also beat the Conservatives in many Francophone areas in Beauséjour, Acadie-Bathurst and Madawaska-Restigouche.

Val Gagné is not Francophone, but Mennonite.

[MaxQue]

Honestly, the Bloc just looks the closest to whomever party is in the Opposition.

[MaxQue]

Honestly, the Bloc just looks the closest to whomever party is in the Opposition.

This is true, but I get the feeling after 2021 that if PP were to win a minority that Legault would be whipping the BQ hard  to 'fall in line.' I get the feeling, maybe incorrectly, that a large part of the reason certain Liberal commentators don't consider PP a threat/consider him a big threat is exactly because of their perception of the BQ. Because not everyone can recognize that the post-2019 Bloc will side with the Tories if the chips are down in a narrow minority.

That all said, the party is not exactly left or right, but localist.

PP and Duhaime are apparently quite close, so I don't think Legault would do that.