CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 9,402,858
Dems 4,794,666 (51.0%)
Reps 2,467,742 (26.2%)
Indi/Other 2,140,450 (22.8%)

Turnout = Dems (46%), Reps (46%), Ind/Other (33%)

[Agafin]

Man, Indies really don't care.

[Matty]

What percentage of romney 2012 voters will vote to keep newsom?

10%? 15%?

[ꙮ]

Maybe it was safe all along and I was too bullish on the GOP from the start, but I can't help but think that the California GOP would have done much better here by doing anything other than what they did. They consolidated behind a candidate who is so crazy that he'd be a liability even in a red state, deliberately nationalized the race and sought attention, and then declared that the election was going to be rigged.

When this started out there was support for recall from independents, and even a decent chunk of Democrats. It wasn't getting the attention Dems wanted it to be getting, and Republicans were engaged. Their actions these past few weeks have reversed all of that. My new prediction of No +16% is still probably going to underpredict the margin at this rate.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch.
Even if we win the recall, it will likely be by an embarrassing margin. Let’s wait and see…

What would you consider "an embarrassing margin"? Anything under 10%? 15%?

For CA, 15%.

[Matty]

Maybe it was safe all along and I was too bullish on the GOP from the start, but I can't help but think that the California GOP would have done much better here by doing anything other than what they did. They consolidated behind a candidate who is so crazy that he'd be a liability even in a red state, deliberately nationalized the race and sought attention, and then declared that the election was going to be rigged.

When this started out there was support for recall from independents, and even a decent chunk of Democrats. It wasn't getting the attention Dems wanted it to be getting, and Republicans were engaged. Their actions these past few weeks have reversed all of that. My new prediction of No +16% is still probably going to underpredict the margin at this rate.

the republicans basically did the exact opposite of EVERYTHING dems dd in alabama in 2017.

[Horus]

Man, Indies really don't care.

If I lived in Cali I'd strongly consider not voting, and I don't even miss off year primaries. Everyone in this race is foul.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

Bavaria is the second largest state in Germany and its a one-party monopoly. Plenty of other examples, but that's the obvious one. Usually when a party dominates a large area it has a weaker than average showing in the majority of the rest...which is accurate.

[Gass3268]

Some early exit polling, this one is probably the most illuminating of the electorate:

https://twitter.com/cbspolitics/status/1437919419385139207?s=21

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

Bavaria is the second largest state in Germany and its a one-party monopoly. Plenty of other examples, but that's the obvious one. Usually when a party dominates a large area it has a weaker than average showing in the majority of the rest...which is accurate.

What percent of Bavaria is controlled by center right parties?

I doubt it’s as dominated as CA is

[Kamala's side hoe]

Some early exit polling, this one is probably the most illuminating of the electorate:

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/1437920676610985985

Californians' views on the economoy [sic] are mixed - similar percentages believe the economy is in good shape & not in good shape. Those voting "yes" have more negative views on the economy & cost of living. "No" voters have a more positive view.

[SnowLabrador]

Newsom +12 is my prediction.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Very high turnout in San Diego is expected when all the votes are counted. 70% is insane in a an off year election in the month of September.

A high voter turnout is anticipated as droves of San Diegans are expected to flock to the polls Tuesday for Election Day. Already more than 875,000 ballots were received and the San Diego Registrar of Voters said it expects a 70% turnout for this election.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/high-voter-turnout-expected-in-san-diego-for-californias-recall-election/2717209/

[Хahar 🤔]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

Bavaria is the second largest state in Germany and its a one-party monopoly. Plenty of other examples, but that's the obvious one. Usually when a party dominates a large area it has a weaker than average showing in the majority of the rest...which is accurate.

What percent of Bavaria is controlled by center right parties?

I doubt it’s as dominated as CA is

At the last Bavarian election in 2018, parties that could reasonably be described as left of center (Greens, Social Democrats, Left, Pirates) received 31% of the vote, with the remainder going to parties of the right.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1437923453621919750

[Matty]

Biden at 56-41 approval in CA isn’t great in the long run

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1437918335920971782

[Matty]

If it’s a 56-41 result then I think the recall will narrowly carry OC.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If it’s a 56-41 result then I think the recall will narrowly carry OC.

Wait wait, I'm lost: from where are we getting a potential 56-41 result?

[SnowLabrador]

If it’s a 56-41 result then I think the recall will narrowly carry OC.

Wait wait, I'm lost: from where are we getting a potential 56-41 result?

That's Biden's current approval rating in California, per the exit polls.

[Holmes]

We're not going to overanalyze early exit poll results and make predictions about them are we.

[Pollster]

If it’s a 56-41 result then I think the recall will narrowly carry OC.

Wait wait, I'm lost: from where are we getting a potential 56-41 result?

That's Biden's current approval rating in California, per the exit polls.

There's not going to be any "third party" vote in the recall question.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We're not going to overanalyze early exit poll results and make predictions about them are we.

You've been here how long?