Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
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E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: November 16, 2016, 04:12:13 PM » |
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Definitely Michigan 2016 based on pre-election polling, since people knew that Bush was on track to carry WV. More longer-term, if you asked somebody in November 2012 whether Michigan could vote R in 2016, they'd probably say yes (generic R landslide), while asking someone in November 1996 if West Virginia could vote R would probably get you some amount of folks saying no, considering even Dukakis won it in 1988.
Though nobody in 2012 would've foreseen the juxtaposition of CO and VA going Democratic while MI goes R. And certainly nobody in 1996 (when WV was still more Democratic than CA, for the record) would've suggested WV going R even as swing or lean-R states like PA and NM go D.
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