Let the great boundary rejig commence

[minionofmidas]

The site also contains all stages of the process including alternate but dismissed arrangements for some seats.

They had four initial Edinburgh maps - the one they eventually used, one with a more genuinely easterly Edinburgh East that I like a tad better at first glance, one that appears just plain bizarre, and one that crosses the boundary by dumping Portobello into East Lothian (which in turn gives up a bit of territory to Midlothian & Tweeddale).

[afleitch]

The site also contains all stages of the process including alternate but dismissed arrangements for some seats.

They had four initial Edinburgh maps - the one they eventually used, one with a more genuinely easterly Edinburgh East that I like a tad better at first glance, one that appears just plain bizarre, and one that crosses the boundary by dumping Portobello into East Lothian (which in turn gives up a bit of territory to Midlothian & Tweeddale).

Their Appendix B proposal is quite sensible and I know my side might push for that. In their Edinburgh South seat, I would have salivated at Tory prospects as it includes Meadows/Morningside in full with Sighthill/Gorgie kicked out. The rest of the city is divided sensibly. The current one isn't great.

Dundee is still the big concern. There was a rejected proposal that linked West with Gowrie as agreed but one that linked East with 'Letham' taking in the footprint of the current Dundee seats and Arbroath. They then had an Angus North and Kincardine seat. Why they didn't go for that I have no idea.

EDIT: Just noticed one that united Dundee except two wards.

[minionofmidas]

The site also contains all stages of the process including alternate but dismissed arrangements for some seats.

They had four initial Edinburgh maps - the one they eventually used, one with a more genuinely easterly Edinburgh East that I like a tad better at first glance, one that appears just plain bizarre, and one that crosses the boundary by dumping Portobello into East Lothian (which in turn gives up a bit of territory to Midlothian & Tweeddale).

Their Appendix B proposal is quite sensible and I know my side might push for that. In their Edinburgh South seat, I would have salivated at Tory prospects as it includes Meadows/Morningside in full with Sighthill/Gorgie kicked out. The rest of the city is divided sensibly. The current one isn't great.

Dundee is still the big concern. There was a rejected proposal that linked West with Gowrie as agreed but one that linked East with 'Letham' taking in the footprint of the current Dundee seats and Arbroath. They then had an Angus North and Kincardine seat. Why they didn't go for that I have no idea.

EDIT: Just noticed one that united Dundee except two wards.

I suppose the only reason they didn't do something like that is they didn't see any parts of the city to "naturally" crop out.

The split of Dunfermline looks like it's probably just about avoidable if Rosyth & Cowdenbeath (or whatever else it would be called once it can't be Dunfermline East anymore) curves around the city a bit. Obviously some of the town splits in Lanarkshire are also unfortunate even though the general setup is sensible.

[afleitch]

The site also contains all stages of the process including alternate but dismissed arrangements for some seats.

They had four initial Edinburgh maps - the one they eventually used, one with a more genuinely easterly Edinburgh East that I like a tad better at first glance, one that appears just plain bizarre, and one that crosses the boundary by dumping Portobello into East Lothian (which in turn gives up a bit of territory to Midlothian & Tweeddale).

Their Appendix B proposal is quite sensible and I know my side might push for that. In their Edinburgh South seat, I would have salivated at Tory prospects as it includes Meadows/Morningside in full with Sighthill/Gorgie kicked out. The rest of the city is divided sensibly. The current one isn't great.

Dundee is still the big concern. There was a rejected proposal that linked West with Gowrie as agreed but one that linked East with 'Letham' taking in the footprint of the current Dundee seats and Arbroath. They then had an Angus North and Kincardine seat. Why they didn't go for that I have no idea.

EDIT: Just noticed one that united Dundee except two wards.

I suppose the only reason they didn't do something like that is they didn't see any parts of the city to "naturally" crop out.

The split of Dunfermline looks like it's probably just about avoidable if Rosyth & Cowdenbeath (or whatever else it would be called once it can't be Dunfermline East anymore) curves around the city a bit. Obviously some of the town splits in Lanarkshire are also unfortunate even though the general setup is sensible.

Generally speaking you can lop off (much to the delight of residents I'm sure), Broughty Ferry to the east and Fintryside (everything north of the Fintry River). Essentially the North East Ward and Ferry Ward of the city. The rest can be constituted to form a 'South Angus' seat.

The Dunfermline split could be avoided as you say. I don't like the Fife set-up. It would have made sense to link Fife with Perthshire to give 5 seats and have a 5 seat arrangement for Dundee City, Angus and Aberdeenshire.

Lanarkshire works, in the sense that it doesn't but there's not really much of an option. I'm shocked that Hamilton isn't split which seemed to be the norm for the past 30 years of reviews.

[joevsimp]

Projection based on September average polls and initial estimates for England and Scotland
Labour 38% (+8% on 2010)
Conservatives 36% (-2% on 2010)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-13% on 2010)
Others 15% (+6% on 2010)

Labour 276 seats (+65 seats)
Conservatives 259 seats (-34 seats)
Scottish National Party 16 seats (+10 seats)
Green Party 2 seats (+2 seats)
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (-43 seats)
New Winning Line will be 301 seats, so far 554 seats calculated. 16 seats in Northern Ireland and 30 seats in Wales yet to be calculated

What two seats do you have the Greens winning? Pav+Hove Central I assume,  and B+H North, or somwhere else entirely?

[You kip if you want to...]

Projection based on September average polls and initial estimates for England and Scotland
Labour 38% (+8% on 2010)
Conservatives 36% (-2% on 2010)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-13% on 2010)
Others 15% (+6% on 2010)

Labour 276 seats (+65 seats)
Conservatives 259 seats (-34 seats)
Scottish National Party 16 seats (+10 seats)
Green Party 2 seats (+2 seats)
Liberal Democrats 1 seat (-43 seats)
New Winning Line will be 301 seats, so far 554 seats calculated. 16 seats in Northern Ireland and 30 seats in Wales yet to be calculated

What two seats do you have the Greens winning? Pav+Hove Central I assume,  and B+H North, or somwhere else entirely?

Maybe Norwich South, possibly... maybe.

Approximately, how far does each of Labour and Toory need to be ahead to be the largest party/majority government under the new boundaries?

And the LibDems on 1 seat? Really though? Even i'm not that optimistic.

[YL]

Labour's full counterproposal for Lancashire and Cheshire has now been posted by "dadge" on
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/labour-counterproposals-north-west-england/

It's not quite as bad as some people had been making out, but there are some pretty bad seats.  The northern part of the region generally looks better than the southern.

[YL]

And the LibDems on 1 seat? Really though? Even i'm not that optimistic.

I'm a bit surprised it's that low, but the Lib Dems often appear to do badly out of notional results, because areas added to existing Lib Dem seats often haven't been a focus of Lib Dem campaigning and haven't had personal votes for the Lib Dem MPs.  Kendal & Penrith is an obvious example in the initial proposals: that seat is probably considerably safer for the Lib Dems (or at least for Tim Farron) than notional results suggest.  Or the seat I get put into by the proposals (and you-know-who's), Sheffield West & Penistone: the Lib Dems have no organisation and no recent electoral record in Penistone West, but you bet that if that seat does survive the consultation they'll try to get organised there.

Also, uniform national swing is an even dodgier assumption when dealing with Lib Dems (and I doubt this'll change even with the Coalition) than with other parties.  So I doubt the Lib Dems would actually go down to 1 seat in an election fought on these boundaries and with those vote share changes.

[Harry Hayfield]

The two Green wins are the new Brighton, Pavillion (gain from Lab) and Norwich South (gain from Lib Dem). That is a forecast based on the average polls in September 2011. To know the notional tallies (based on my estimates of Scotland and the Guardian's calculations) work backwards

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour's full counterproposal for Lancashire and Cheshire has now been posted by "dadge" on
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/labour-counterproposals-north-west-england/

It's not quite as bad as some people had been making out, but there are some pretty bad seats.  The northern part of the region generally looks better than the southern.

That Wirral-Cheshire seat is dire, but an improvement on Mersey Banks (not that that says much). I like that they agree with my Wallasey-Meols suggestion, anyone who even knew the slightest bit about the Wirral would've proposed that in the first place. That Wirral South proposal's quite good though.

[You kip if you want to...]

The two Green wins are the new Brighton, Pavillion (gain from Lab) and Norwich South (gain from Lib Dem). That is a forecast based on the average polls in September 2011. To know the notional tallies (based on my estimates of Scotland and the Guardian's calculations) work backwards

Are you assuming that former LibDems just go, mostly, to the Greens? Although, that's a fair assumption, it happened in Brighton in May, it'd be a push...

[Harry Hayfield]

What the polls seem to be saying is Con -2% on the general (in essence virtually unchanged), Labour are +9% and the Liberal Democrats -13%. The majority of that -15% is from Lib Dem to Lab, but the SNP, UKIP and Greens are also up (SNP +2%, Green +2%, UKIP +1%) with the BNP and the Others -1%. This suggests to me that in Lib Dem seats with a majority of less than 22%, the Lib Dems will lose the seat. In 2010, there were only eight Lib Dems elected with a majority of more than 22% (Bath, Fife North East, North Norfolk, Orkney, Ross, Hallam, Westmorland and Yeovil) and of those eight only Bath, North Norfolk, Orkney, Yeovil remain in place and only Orkney is forecast to remain Lib Dem on a national uniform swing.

[ObserverIE]

What the polls seem to be saying is Con -2% on the general (in essence virtually unchanged), Labour are +9% and the Liberal Democrats -13%. The majority of that -15% is from Lib Dem to Lab, but the SNP, UKIP and Greens are also up (SNP +2%, Green +2%, UKIP +1%) with the BNP and the Others -1%. This suggests to me that in Lib Dem seats with a majority of less than 22%, the Lib Dems will lose the seat. In 2010, there were only eight Lib Dems elected with a majority of more than 22% (Bath, Fife North East, North Norfolk, Orkney, Ross, Hallam, Westmorland and Yeovil) and of those eight only Bath, North Norfolk, Orkney, Yeovil remain in place and only Orkney is forecast to remain Lib Dem on a national uniform swing.

Surely they're more than 11% ahead of the Conservatives and 22% ahead of Labour in the other three at least? (11% being the required lead given that the Conservatives are down -2%.)

I know that they're facing a combination of massive unpopularity in Scotland and severe disruption to most of their safer seats in England, but 1 seat being left is overstating it for the moment.

[YL]

What the polls seem to be saying is Con -2% on the general (in essence virtually unchanged), Labour are +9% and the Liberal Democrats -13%. The majority of that -15% is from Lib Dem to Lab, but the SNP, UKIP and Greens are also up (SNP +2%, Green +2%, UKIP +1%) with the BNP and the Others -1%. This suggests to me that in Lib Dem seats with a majority of less than 22%, the Lib Dems will lose the seat. In 2010, there were only eight Lib Dems elected with a majority of more than 22% (Bath, Fife North East, North Norfolk, Orkney, Ross, Hallam, Westmorland and Yeovil) and of those eight only Bath, North Norfolk, Orkney, Yeovil remain in place and only Orkney is forecast to remain Lib Dem on a national uniform swing.

Surely they're more than 11% ahead of the Conservatives and 22% ahead of Labour in the other three at least? (11% being the required lead given that the Conservatives are down -2%.)

I know that they're facing a combination of massive unpopularity in Scotland and severe disruption to most of their safer seats in England, but 1 seat being left is overstating it for the moment.

On Anthony Wells's figures and with those vote share changes as a uniform national swing
Kendal & Penrith goes Tory (LD notionally 9.3% ahead of Con) and Sheffield West & Penistone just goes Labour (Labour are notionally third but are 21% behind).

On the other hand, Bath, Yeovil and North Norfolk would all stay LD (they're notionally over 20% ahead of Con and Lab are nowhere).  Harry's also missing Bristol West where Wells has them notionally 24% ahead of Labour, and there are a few more with leads over Con in the teens and Labour nowhere.

For Scotland, Aidan Thomson has posted some notional figures on Vote UK.  Cupar & St Andrews is a disaster for the Lib Dems, with Ming's majority cut to 3.3% notionally (over Labour), but the LD lead is 24.5% in Inverness & Skye (over Labour; the SNP are slightly further back).  The LDs also have decent leads in Caithness et al and Deeside & Gordon.

There are a lot of caveats needed here, of course.

[Harry Hayfield]

These are the seats that I have as Lib Dem and their majorities (based on the data from the Guardian and my Scottish calculations)

Abingdon and Oxford North 0% over Con
Argyll, Bute and Lochaber 10% over Con
Bath 21% over Con
Bermondsey and Waterloo 19% over Lab
Berwick and Morpeth 6% over Con
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11% over Con
Bideford and Bude 8% over Con
Birmingham Yardley 0% over Lab
Bodmin and Newquay 1% over Con
Bristol West 24% over Lab
Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Cromarty 25% over Lab
Cambridge 13% over Con
Cheadle 6% over Con
Cheltenham 10% over Con
Colchester 15% over Con
Cupar and St Andrews 4% over Lab
Deeside and Gordon 14% over SNP
Eastbourne 6% over Con
Eastleigh 6% over Con
Edinburgh West 5% over Lab
Glastonbury and Wincanton 4% over Con
Guiseley and Yeadon 0% over Con
Hazel Grove and Poynton 2% over Con
Hornsey and Wood Green 8% over Lab
Inverness and Skye 22% over Lab
Kendal and Penrith 9% over Con
Kingston and Surbiton 13% over Con
North Devon 9% over Con
North East Somerset 4% over Con
North Norfolk 20% over Con
Norwich South 0% over Lab
Orkney and Shetland 51% over Lab
Richmond and Twickenham 2% over Con
Sheffield South West 5% over Lab
Sheffield West and Penistone 19% over Con
Solihull 2% over Con
Southport 7% over Con
St Ives 3% over Con
Taunton 11% over Con
Teddington and Hanworth 11% over Con
Torbay 8% over Con
Truro and St Austell 3% over Con
Willesden 1% over Lab
Yeovil 24% over Con


The polls since the general election suggest that the following seats are at risk:

Seats with a majority over Con of less than 11%
Seats with a majority over Lab of less than 21%

So looking at that list, the following should be expected


Abingdon and Oxford North 0% over Con

Argyll, Bute and Lochaber 10% over Con

Bath 21% over Con
Bermondsey and Waterloo 19% over Lab

Berwick and Morpeth 6% over Con
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 11% over Con
Bideford and Bude 8% over Con

Birmingham Yardley 0% over Lab

Bodmin and Newquay 1% over Con

Bristol West 24% over Lab
Caithness, Sutherland, Ross and Cromarty 25% over Lab

Cambridge 13% over Con
Cheadle 6% over Con
Cheltenham 10% over Con

Colchester 15% over Con
Cupar and St Andrews 4% over Lab

Deeside and Gordon 14% over SNP

Eastbourne 6% over Con
Eastleigh 6% over Con

Edinburgh West 5% over Lab

Glastonbury and Wincanton 4% over Con
Guiseley and Yeadon 0% over Con
Hazel Grove and Poynton 2% over Con

Hornsey and Wood Green 8% over Lab

Inverness and Skye 22% over Lab

Kendal and Penrith 9% over Con

Kingston and Surbiton 13% over Con
North Devon 9% over Con
North East Somerset 4% over Con

North Norfolk 20% over Con
Norwich South 0% over Lab

Orkney and Shetland 51% over Lab
Richmond and Twickenham 2% over Con

Sheffield South West 5% over Lab

Sheffield West and Penistone 19% over Con
Solihull 2% over Con
Southport 7% over Con
St Ives 3% over Con
Taunton 11% over Con
Teddington and Hanworth 11% over Con
Torbay 8% over Con
Truro and St Austell 3% over Con

Willesden 1% over Lab

Yeovil 24% over Con

[YL]

Well, I wouldn't say that they should be expected: uniform national swing is a very crude tool when dealing with the Lib Dems.  Also I think you've missed a couple which Labour could win from third on that swing (one of which I already mentioned).

What's your methodology for predicting SNP gains in Scotland?

[Harry Hayfield]

Whenever a national poll is published, the first thing I do is see whether that poll publishes the full data set (as a result I only track polls by Com Res, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and Angus Reid). I then enter the number of people voting for each party and generate the % shares. In the most recent poll I have from Com Res, this gave Con 37%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 12% and Others 15%. Over the course of a month I average all the polls in that month (which in September gave Con 36%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 11% and Others 15%.

Usually I use UK-Elect when forecasting elections but for elections where the seats are brand new (as is the case at the moment) I used a ratio system to make my forecasts which works like this. In 2010 (under these proposed constituencies) the Conservatives won 37.69% of the vote, the September average has them on 35.81% (a drop of 1.88%). This means that the Conservative vote has fallen by 5% of it's 2010 total. So I then say to every constituency "Right, take 5% off the Conservative vote". I then do this for all the other parties as well. Lab +30%, Lib Dems -53%, SNP +151%, UKIP -4%, Green +326%, BNP -34% and Others -21%.

So for instance in a seat like Cambridge, that gives the following:
Green 16,203 (29% +22%)
Lab 15,855 (29% +5%)
Con 12,190 (22% -3%)
Lib Dem 9,272 (17% -22%)
UKIP 1,143 (2% unchanged)
Others 402 (1% unchanged)
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat

and at the same time allows for the 2% margin of error that all polls have

[joevsimp]

Whenever a national poll is published, the first thing I do is see whether that poll publishes the full data set (as a result I only track polls by Com Res, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and Angus Reid). I then enter the number of people voting for each party and generate the % shares. In the most recent poll I have from Com Res, this gave Con 37%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 12% and Others 15%. Over the course of a month I average all the polls in that month (which in September gave Con 36%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 11% and Others 15%.

Usually I use UK-Elect when forecasting elections but for elections where the seats are brand new (as is the case at the moment) I used a ratio system to make my forecasts which works like this. In 2010 (under these proposed constituencies) the Conservatives won 37.69% of the vote, the September average has them on 35.81% (a drop of 1.88%). This means that the Conservative vote has fallen by 5% of it's 2010 total. So I then say to every constituency "Right, take 5% off the Conservative vote". I then do this for all the other parties as well. Lab +30%, Lib Dems -53%, SNP +151%, UKIP -4%, Green +326%, BNP -34% and Others -21%.

So for instance in a seat like Cambridge, that gives the following:
Green 16,203 (29% +22%)
Lab 15,855 (29% +5%)
Con 12,190 (22% -3%)
Lib Dem 9,272 (17% -22%)
UKIP 1,143 (2% unchanged)
Others 402 (1% unchanged)
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat

and at the same time allows for the 2% margin of error that all polls have

I think that's a bit too much to hope for, Labour are not going to let us take a gain like Norwich south or Cambridge from under their nose without  a fight

[You kip if you want to...]

Whenever a national poll is published, the first thing I do is see whether that poll publishes the full data set (as a result I only track polls by Com Res, ICM, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and Angus Reid). I then enter the number of people voting for each party and generate the % shares. In the most recent poll I have from Com Res, this gave Con 37%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 12% and Others 15%. Over the course of a month I average all the polls in that month (which in September gave Con 36%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 11% and Others 15%.

Usually I use UK-Elect when forecasting elections but for elections where the seats are brand new (as is the case at the moment) I used a ratio system to make my forecasts which works like this. In 2010 (under these proposed constituencies) the Conservatives won 37.69% of the vote, the September average has them on 35.81% (a drop of 1.88%). This means that the Conservative vote has fallen by 5% of it's 2010 total. So I then say to every constituency "Right, take 5% off the Conservative vote". I then do this for all the other parties as well. Lab +30%, Lib Dems -53%, SNP +151%, UKIP -4%, Green +326%, BNP -34% and Others -21%.

So for instance in a seat like Cambridge, that gives the following:
Green 16,203 (29% +22%)
Lab 15,855 (29% +5%)
Con 12,190 (22% -3%)
Lib Dem 9,272 (17% -22%)
UKIP 1,143 (2% unchanged)
Others 402 (1% unchanged)
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat

and at the same time allows for the 2% margin of error that all polls have

I think that's a bit too much to hope for, Labour are not going to let us take a gain like Norwich south or Cambridge from under their nose without  a fight

I know. I can see how that method easily breaks down with the minor parties...

[Leftbehind]

Although there is something to the proportional loss, as we seen in Scotland.

[joevsimp]

I think that's a bit too much to hope for, Labour are not going to let us take a gain like Norwich south or Cambridge from under their nose without  a fight

I know. I can see how that method easily breaks down with the minor parties...
[/quote]

the model is also skewed by the fact that we massively underperformed in non-target seats, especially in London, but it show's what's possible, even if its not probable

[You kip if you want to...]

I think that's a bit too much to hope for, Labour are not going to let us take a gain like Norwich south or Cambridge from under their nose without  a fight

I know. I can see how that method easily breaks down with the minor parties...

the model is also skewed by the fact that we massively underperformed in non-target seats, especially in London, but it show's what's possible, even if its not probable
[/quote]

Exactly. Didn't the Green vote fall slightly nationwide?

[minionofmidas]

Except for the target seats, the party essentially collapsed. In part this was due to the removal of Tony Blair - and of the issues that people had opposed him from the left for - and the fact that Labour were neither winning nor being clobbered. But it also was policy - the brand owners gave up on building a political party and instead attempted to become independent MPs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except for the target seats, the party essentially collapsed. In part this was due to the removal of Tony Blair - and of the issues that people had opposed him from the left for - and the fact that Labour were neither winning nor being clobbered. But it also was policy - the brand owners gave up on building a political party and instead attempted to become independent MPs.

Given that that's what they've been doing in local elections in certain places (Stroud for example, but see also random unexpected parts of Herefordshire and - more recently - Suffolk) for a long time, it's surprising that it took them so long.

[YL]

Labour's full counterproposal for Lancashire and Cheshire has now been posted by "dadge" on
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/labour-counterproposals-north-west-england/

And now he has the Tory proposals up too:
http://ukelect.wordpress.com/2011/10/16/conservative-counterproposals-north-west-england/

Featuring more ways to make a horrible mess of Cheshire.