Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Nyvin]

Can someone provide the Cliffs Notes version of jim's post? It looks like the explanation for fraud that caused incredible and atypical Republican results is "Democrats did something bad" but that is so confusing that I won't believe it.

Pretty much.   A black Democrat goes door to door with sample ballots, take the people's ballots to the poll.   Democrats have been harvesting votes for decades, Republicans never do anything wrong....yadda yadda yadda.

[Nyvin]

This also shows how useless voter ID laws are since they do nothing to prevent absentee ballot fraud,  which is where the vast majority of voter fraud (The little of it there is) occurs.

[Nyvin]

And I think so long as McCready is unable to catch up, Harris should be certified regardless of fraud. An insurmountable race ought to lead to certification.

*facepalm*

If it's found out Harris was involved with the fraud...there's a good chance he goes to prison.

[Nyvin]

Pat McCrory won Bladen county by 6 points. Roy Cooper won absentees by 23. Looks like there needs to be another investigation....into the governor.

That’s not how it works...

[Nyvin]

Republicans everywhere scream "VOTER FRAUD" and "ILLEGAL VOTERS!" at the top of their lungs for literally decades, and here we have the first authentic, substantiated case of it, and now they're all pessimistic and dismissive simply because it's being done by Republican operatives and benefits the Republican candidate.

Color me shocked.

[Nyvin]

Called it:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1070102416828325896

They don't even want the investigation "conducted".   That really shows they have no interests in seeing if there was actually fraud or not, they just want Harris seated no matter what.

[Nyvin]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices. You hear that the Republicans committed vote fraud. You think, "I knew that". You are shown some evidence that supposedly supports your conclusion, and simply keep repeating it. You are like a student who keeps giving the teacher the answer they expect, rather than critically thinking.

You're not short of "certain prejeduces" don't worry.

[Nyvin]

Haha!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1070543855924244481

[Nyvin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.bpr.org/post/nc-politics-roundup-republican-supermajority-comes-end


Nothing really new here, but seems to fall in line with coverage that Republicans seem to be coming back around on supporting Harris.

I mean it is common sense that if the fraud was not known about by Harris and did not alter the outcome that the result should be certified. The only reason to think otherwise is because one desires the alternative outcome.

However, the investigation is not completed and neither assumption necessary for the above to be the case is known or even (IMO) likely. I strongly suspect that Mark Harris had some idea of what Dowless was up to and was more than happy to turn a blind eye to the immorality of it if he could deliver him votes.

It is about as likely Harris ends up in a prison cell as that he ends up in Congress at this point.

How do you possibly ever prove the fraud didn't alter the outcome?   That's pretty much impossible.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1082437143316914176

Does this look like something an innocent guy would do...?

[Nyvin]

Seemed that these were both good candidates, and I could’ve supported either one. Probably would’ve ended up voting Murphy though because of Perry’s recent endorsement of a democrat.

O, yeah - to endorse good candidate from other party is a crime now. Idiocy.....

When "the other party" is an authoritarian quasi-communist fifth column openly determined to destroy literally everything that has ever been good in America, then yeah, it is a crime.

Are you talking about Republicans?   There were Trump's bailouts for farmers and all that.

[Nyvin]

NC-9 is going to come down to Union County.   It depends if Bishop can get some where around ~63% of the vote there and if turnout there is good on election day.

[Nyvin]

So I was talking to some people in the office today about this race

None of them knew it was happening or remotely knew anything about it

“Why do you care about an election in NC” they asked

They are right, but I love following this stuff. Lol

In the grand scheme of things, this is a totally meaningless event in the long run

Unless you live in the district

Yeah, it's entirely symbolic.   It won't affect what happens in Congress at all.

I'd say most special elections are like this, except the ones for Senate seats.

[Nyvin]

You have to remember Bishop represents that portion of Mecklenburg.  If there's one part of the district he's going to overperform Harris in, it'd be there.

And now it's pretty much down to Mecklenburg to determine the race.

[Nyvin]

You have to remember Bishop represents that portion of Mecklenburg.  If there's one part of the district he's going to overperform Harris in, it'd be there.

And now it's pretty much down to Mecklenburg to determine the race.

He represents almost the entire portion that's in Mecklenburg.

yes

[Nyvin]

Close but likely that Bishop has got this

There's no way to know without seeing what the Mecklenburg ED numbers are

[Nyvin]

There's still a lot left in Robeson too

[Nyvin]

McCready needs to win Mecklenburg ED vote by at least a couple points,  otherwise Bishop will win with what's left in Union.

[Nyvin]

MSNBC shows Meck dump Mcready +6%

If what's left in Meck follows those numbers than McCready wins easily.

[Nyvin]

I'd say Bishop is favored at this point, but let's remember this is most definitely NOT a swing district anyway.

[Nyvin]

McCready might lose Robeson at this rate.

Yeah, McCready is tanking in Robeson, but seems to be running ahead in Mecklenburg.   

[Nyvin]

Union is done reporting.

[Nyvin]

A 2,558 vote margin is a lot to expect out of Mecklenburg....lol.   I think Bishop won.

Let's just try to remember - THIS IS NOT A SWING DISTRICT!   If results like this were replicated across the country Republicans would be losing in a landslide,  the GOP really doesn't have much to be happy about here either.

[Nyvin]

Robeson single handedly lost McCready the seat.   Good to see that even western Union swung dem though.

[Nyvin]

Since this was an R+2 win in a R+8 district, I looked up D+6 for mirror universe toss-ups in a Clinton Presidency.

CA-52 (Peters)
CO-7 (Perlmutter)
DE-AL (Blunt Rochester)
FL-22 (Deutch)
FL-26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
GA-2 (Bishop)
IL-3 (Lipinski)
MA-6 (Moulton)
KY-3 (Yarmuth)
RI-2 (Langevin, I think)
WA-1 (DelBene)
WA-6 (Kilmer)

However, I think all of these are gravely misleading examples, and should be overruled because the final D+6 district feels red to all of us.

Also since the Dems won the last two Pres popular votes,  PVI understates how dem a seat is (or overstate how GOP a seat is, whichever).   

Clinton won CA-52 by 58.1% - 35.6% and it's rated D+6 but Trump only only FL-15 by 53.1% - 43.1% and it's rated R+6.

When you compare the PVI to raw elections like this it doesn't work out so well.