WV SEN 2018: Jenkins loses GOP primary, how vulnerable would Manchin be? (user search)
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  WV SEN 2018: Jenkins loses GOP primary, how vulnerable would Manchin be? (search mode)
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Author Topic: WV SEN 2018: Jenkins loses GOP primary, how vulnerable would Manchin be?  (Read 1936 times)
Adam Griffin
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Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« on: May 11, 2017, 11:55:27 PM »
« edited: May 11, 2017, 11:57:11 PM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »


http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wv/Dem - Second page has the crosstabs for the "who are you voting for in November?" question.


Y'all just don't get it.

Tons 👏 of Bernie voters 👏 in WV 👏 protest 👏 voted 👏 for him.

I'm not painting any other picture than what is fair, and I'm certainly not using "isolated examples: 40 percent of the Democratic primary electorate always planned on voting for Trump. Of the remaining sixty percent or so, 35 percent legitimately supported Sanders and 25 percent legitimately supported Clinton. The overall group of Trump supporters was the plurality among those three groups, and 25% of all WV Democratic primary voters were Trump supporters who voted Bernie despite never supporting him.

They didn't vote for him because they liked him or wanted to see him as President: they voted for him because he wasn't Hillary Clinton - just like a huge portion of the love for Clinton there in the 2008 primary was fueled by her not being Blacky McBlackface.

They are conservatives who are registered Democrats because the Democratic Party has and still does rule WV local politics with an iron fist: they have closed primaries and if you want any say whatsoever over who ultimately runs your local and state politics, you register as a Democrat. This stuff isn't hard: a majority of registered voters in WV are registered Democrats but WV hasn't given a majority of its votes to a [presidential GE] Democrat since 1996; in the past four elections, it [the margin] hasn't even been in the single-digits.

It's not an outlier, it's not an exception: the difference between the picture you and others are trying to paint versus what is the reality is the difference between a solidly-progressive state and a heavily-conservative one; the difference between a legitimate Sanders rout (in both primary and general) and a victory where the primary's margin was fueled solely by protest voting.
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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,092
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2017, 12:04:25 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2017, 12:07:54 AM by Fmr. Pres. Griffin »

^^^ I mean, this is a state where 40% of the Democratic primary voters in 2012 voted for a literal convict sitting in federal prison over the sitting Democratic President. It truly has always bothered me how there are people who are perplexed by the notion of registered Democrats in WV protest-voting.  



If Manchin were to lose the Democratic primary somehow, then the only way it'd happen is if scores of registered conservative Democrats decided they no longer wanted Manchin at all, threw a wrench into things, and protest-voted en masse for his opponent knowing it'd bolster the GOP candidate's chances. That combined with the self-ascribed "progressive vote" in WV might be enough to oust him in the primary, but short of that happening, it ain't happenin'.
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