Now? Virginia, barely.
Maybe in 10 years? Oregon.
Why? I see nothing in Oregon’s near-future that could make it competitive for Republicans, if anything it will probably just keep getting worse for them.
I'm not saying that it will be. I'm just saying that if one of them has to flip in like a decade or so, it will be oregon before virginia, and I base that off the explosive growth in NOVA.
Western Oregon, especially the suburbs around Portland, are growing at a pace on par with NOVA. In any case the PVI of OR is D+6 this cycle while for VA it is at D+2