it is a lean democrat state.
it isnt a lock for the democrats, particularly if the war is over or winding down by nov 08.
my biggest fear is that the republicans are going to write nh off (and the entire northeast, similar to what the democrats did in the south in the 90s)
The Democrats did not write off the South in the 1990s did they - Clinton carried Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana in both 1992 and 1996, and he carried Georgia in 1992 and Florida in 1996. In 1996, he came close to winning North Carolina, Mississippi and Virginia.
The Democrats arguably started to right off the South after the 2000 elections - when Al Gore failed to carry even his homestate of Tennessee and lost Arkansas and Louisiana - two states he could feasibly have carried. And the fact that AL-3, a District that the right Democrat could win in, remains in Republican hands, demonstrates that they have written off the South now. But I do not think they did it in the 1990s - it really occurred after 2000 and especially in 2002 and 2004 - when the Republicans won every open seat up for election in the region and Bush convincingly won every Southern state.
