House PredictionOnly major exceptions from other pundits are:
MI-10 as Tilt R (I think this race has a great probability of an upset thanks to John James not even living in the district and the excellent candidate that is Carl Marlinga)
CA-27 as Lean R due to Valadao's overperformance in the primary
RI-02 as Tilt D (although this could very well become Tilt R if more polling suggests a "narrow D lead"
CA-13 as Tilt D (due to very low CA Hispanic turnout in off years and the very weak primary performances in the Central Valley from Dems).
Other than that, pretty standard no-tossup map I would say.
Senate PredictionUnfortunately, Senator Greitens/Hartzler/whoever wins the crowded MO primary and Senator Vance are inevitabilities come next January. There is literally nothing that can disqualify a republican candidate in the eyes of many loyal voters (not wife/child abuse [Greitens], not never living in the state [Oz], not even actual brain damage [Walker]) so these two are absolutely going to win, Safe R.
Ron Johnson and Ted Budd will cruise to election/reelection thanks to the nature of this environment but are absolutely vulnerable (specifically Budd as Johnson most likely retires) in 2028, but as of now, Likely R barring a major scandal.
Fetterman faces an uphill climb as Oz's many flaws are not as important as a reliable R vote in the Senate to many suburban conservative voters, so this race is Lean R as of now. This could become more competitive but this combined with Fetterman's health problems that have really handicapped his campaign so far aren't a good sign.
Georgia and Arizona are in very similar places and I expect both races to go the same way: moderate Democrat elected in a rapidly D trending Trump majority - Biden plurality states with opponents that are either insane (Masters seeking to privatise social security) or mentally ill (Walker giving any speech about anything). These races are going to be razor thin regardless, and just because of the environment I'm going to give it to Rs here but this could go either way and I would not be surprised.
CCM is in a similar boat, but because her opponent isn't visibly insane or delusional she probably goes down even if the other two survive. Hassan, on the other hand, narrowly wins (this race will probably get written off as Lean D and stay there the whole cycle only to be one of the closest D-won states like MI-Sen 2020).
Bennet is weaker than many expect thanks to his opponent being very moderate and probably getting many Trump-Biden voters on his side. Would not be surprised if this seat flips in a sizeable wave, but Bennet is definitely in a competitive race here. I don't buy into the Smiley hype (she probably loses by 5-7 points) and I don't think any other races will be competitive.
Governor PredictionOR, PA, and NM will be the closest governor's races of this cycle. OR is only competitive due to Betsy Johnson who will inevitably take between 5-10 percent from Kotek and very few voters from Drazan. In PA, the ball is in Mastriano's court to redefine himself as not an insane neo-nazi which I think he will struggle to do, but as of now and because PA voted for Biden by 3 pts only, Tilt R.
Mills will most likely narrowly defeat LePage but would not be surprised if he wins (will be within 3 points either way). Ronchetti has great odds to defeat Lujan Grisham if national Dems do not take that race seriously (which I have not seen so far) but I still need to see some polling before I give him the lead.
Laura Kelly is unfortunately DOA in a Biden midterm but I will wait for some good polls until moving that race to Safe R. Polis, Pritzker, Hochul, Newsom will all be fine.
DeSantis probably wins by 7-10 points (less than the national swing from 2020-2022 but still overperforming polls), same with Abbott (probably by 10-12 pts. over Beto).
Alaska could be close due to RCV and the candidacy of Bill Walker as an independent, so that could unexpectedly result in a D/I win on an otherwise grim night.
Let me know your thoughts!!
