The Republican collapse in NH in the 1990s

[MT Treasurer]

Much has been made of the Republican collapse in VT in the 1990s, but it’s often overlooked that NH actually had a stronger Democratic swing/trend than VT in both 1992 and 1996. How did it go from Dukakis' second-worst state (it was more Republican than NE/WY/ID in 1988!) to a Republican-tilting and eventually stubbornly Democratic-leaning state which today has an all-Democratic congressional delegation and hasn’t voted Republican for President since 2000?

While NH and VT obviously share some cultural and political similarities and many of the factors which caused VT to turn into a Democratic state at the federal level paved the way for NH's transition as well, the two states are also quite different in many respects, with Republicans being more reliant on suburban/exurban support in NH, to give an obvious example.

Relative to the national result:

               VT                NH

1980      D+4              R+19
1984      D+1              R+20
1988      D+4.5           R+18
1992      D+10            R+5 (!)
1996      D+13.5         D+1.5 (!)
2000      D+9.5           R+2

The speed and magnitude of the swings in NH in 1992/1996 even when compared to Vermont are quite something.